
Political Instability in Lebanon
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Middle East and North Africa
Significant
Unchanging
Political Instability
Recent Developments
In May 2018, Lebanon held its first parliamentary elections in nine years and Hezbollah—a Shiite political party and militant organization backed by Iran and designated by the United States as a terrorist group—increased its share of seats to 53 percent. Despite elections having taken place months earlier, Lebanese politicians were not able to break political gridlock and form a unity government until January 2019.
Tensions between Israel and Lebanon recently increased after the discovery of tunnels, allegedly dug by Hezbollah, leading from Lebanon into Israel. Israel launched Operation Northern Shield in December 2018 in response to the discovery, and the UN Interim Forces in Lebanon confirmed that at least two of the tunnels violate a 2006 cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah.
Background
After gaining independence in 1943, Lebanon’s new political leaders created a system of governance that would allow for the proportional representation of the country’s three major religious groups: Maronite Christians (represented by the president), Shiite Muslims (represented by the speaker of parliament), and Sunni Muslims (represented by the prime minister). However, unresolved sectarian differences eventually devolved into a civil war that lasted from 1975 to 1990, in which both Israeli and Syrian forces intervened—and more than one hundred thousand people died. Syrian forces withdrew from Lebanon in 2005 following the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, but a war between Israel and Hezbollah quickly followed in 2006.
In the last decade, sectarian tensions between Hezbollah and Sunni groups have increased—as has political gridlock. In addition to a two and a half year leadership gap from 2014 to 2016, Lebanon did not hold parliamentary elections for nine years. Furthermore, Lebanese politics have become a proxy battleground for Iran, which provides support for Hezbollah; and Saudi Arabia, which supports Prime Minister Saad Hariri and other Sunni politicians. In November 2017, during his visit to the kingdom, Saudi Arabia seemingly held Hariri under house arrest and forced him to resign from office amid Saudi concerns that Hariri was not doing enough to counter Hezbollah’s influence. Hariri eventually returned to Lebanon—and to office—but tensions between political parties persist.
Lebanon’s economy has struggled as well, partly because of political gridlock, but also because of spillover from the Syrian civil war. In addition to hosting more than 1.5 million refugees (nearly one million of whom are Syrian), the eight-year conflict in Syria has affected cross-border trade and dampened Lebanon’s tourism industry. Lebanon has the world’s third-highest ratio of debt to gross domestic product and may face economic and monetary crises.
Despite Lebanon’s dissociation policy, Hezbollah’s armed component has also been involved in the Syrian civil war, which has exacerbated ongoing tensions between Hezbollah and Israel along the shared (and disputed) Israel-Lebanon border and has led to increasingly hostile rhetorical exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel over Israeli air strikes in Syria. Hezbollah has allegedly supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since the start of the Syrian war.
Concerns
Lebanon has traditionally been a strong U.S. partner in the Middle East. However, security risks, including weak governance, a shaky economy, destabilizing spillover from the Syrian civil war, and the increasing tension between Israel and Hezbollah, have alarmed U.S. policymakers, as well as leaders of partner states in Europe and the Persian Gulf. U.S. policymakers remain focused on mitigating the instability in Lebanon in order to find a diplomatic solution to the Syrian civil war and to prevent the growing influence of Iran in the region.
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Political Instability in Lebanon

Political Instability in Lebanon







Background Articles
Bassem Mroue Associated Press October 21, 2019
Lydia Assouad Carnegie Middle East Center October 21, 2019
Stratfor October 7, 2019
Nicholas Blanford World Politics Review September 17, 2019
Michal Kranz Foreign Policy August 9, 2019
CNN July 17, 2019
Kareem Chehayeb Middle East Eye June 14, 2019
Stratfor June 5, 2019
Uwe Böwer European Commission June 2019
Liz Sly and Suzan Haidamous Washington Post May 18, 2019
Michael Young Carnegie Middle East Center April 11, 2019
Angus McDowall Reuters March 29, 2019
Sune Haugbolle Foreign Policy February 20, 2019
Vivian Yee and Hwaida Saad New York Times February 1, 2019
Joseph Haboush Middle East Institute January 18, 2019
Hanin Gaddar Washington Institute for Near East Policy December 20, 2018
Carla E. Humund Congressional Research Service October 5, 2018
Amanda Rizkallah Washington Post May 11, 2018
Jonathan Wheatley Financial Times April 5, 2018
Sune Engel Rasmussen and Nazih Osseiran The Wall Street Journal March 14, 2018
Nada Homsi New York Times January 23, 2018
Reuters January 23, 2018
Anne Barnard and Maria Abi-Habib New York Times December 24, 2017
Michael Eisenstadt and Kendall Bianchi War on the Rocks December 15, 2017
International Crisis Group December 5, 2017
Hanin Ghaddar War on the Rocks November 28, 2017
Samia Nakhoul, Laila Bassam, and Tom Perry Reuters November 11, 2017
Robert Malley The Atlantic November 8, 2017
Bilal Y. Saab Foreign Affairs November 6, 2017
Dmitry Adamsky Foreign Affairs October 6, 2017
Philippe Nassif and Robert Nicholson Newsweek July 20, 2017
Elias Muhanna New Yorker June 29, 2017
Lisa Barrington Reuters June 2, 2017
Abdel-Maoula Chaar and Karim Medjad The Conversation May 31, 2017
David Kenner Foreign Policy May 31, 2017
Rima Majed Al Jazeera April 6, 2017
Democracy Digest
Human Rights Watch
Encyclopedia Britannica
Rami Ruhayem The Wilson Center November 3, 2016
Bilal Y. Saab Foreign Affairs October 31, 2016
Paul Salem Foreign Affairs October 29, 2016
Joseph Bahout Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Diwan September 18, 2016
Paul Salem Lawfare Blog August 28, 2016
Nicholas Blanford Christian Science Monitor August 23, 2016
Julian Pecquet Al-Monitor August 2016
Nour Samaha Foreign Policy July 17, 2016
Mona Alami Al-Monitor June 10, 2016
Gaja Pellegrini-Bettoli Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Sada July 13, 2016
BBC June 1, 2016
Amanda Rizkallah Washington Post May 11, 2016
Kim Ghattas BBC May 20, 2016
Thanassis Cambanis New York Times May 10, 2016
Bilal Y. Saab Foreign Affairs January 26, 2016
International Crisis Group July 2015
Emile Hokayem Iran Primer, United States Institute of Peace
Latest CFR Analysis
Elliott Abrams CFR Blog, "Pressure Points December 7, 2018
Elliot Abrams CFR Blog, "Pressure Points" August 30, 2018
Elliott Abrams Testimony March 21, 2018
Elliott Abrams and Zachary Shapiro Politico Magazine March 15, 2018
Janine di Giovanni The New York Review of Books February 8, 2018
Jonathan Masters CFR Backgrounder
Elliott Abrams CFR Blog, "Pressure Points" February 23, 2017
CFR Interactive
Steven A. Cook and Amr T. Leheta Foreign Policy May 13, 2016
Jonathan Masters and Mohammed Aly Sergie CFR Backgrounder
Elliott Abrams CFR Blog, "Pressure Points" December 15, 2015
Mona Yacoubian CFR Contingency Planning Memorandum June 2014
Daniel C. Kurtzer CFR Contingency Planning Memorandum July 2010
Primary Sources
White House April 7, 2018
World Factbook CIA
UN Peacekeeping
United Nations Security Council
U.S. National Counterterrorism Center
U.S. Department of State April 8, 2014
CFR Experts

Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies and Director of the International Affairs Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars