Conflict With Hezbollah in Lebanon
In response to U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Hezbollah launched rockets and drones toward Israel on March 2, entering the broader regional escalation stemming from the war with Iran. The attack was likely acting on direction from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and marked the first time Hezbollah had fired at Israel since the U.S.-brokered ceasefire came into effect in November 2024. Continued cross-border salvos have since followed, and Israel has responded with intensified airstrikes throughout Lebanon, particularly targeting Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut’s southern suburbs. On March 24, Israel’s Defense Minister announced that Israel would occupy southern Lebanon up to the Litani River. According to Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health, Israeli strikes have killed at least 1,070 people and wounded an additional 2,966. More than one million people—roughly one-fifth of the country’s population—have been displaced, precipitating a significant humanitarian crisis.
Background
After gaining independence in 1943, Lebanon’s new political leaders created a system of governance that would allow for the proportional representation of the country’s three major religious groups: Maronite Christians (represented by the president), Shiite Muslims (represented by the speaker of parliament), and Sunni Muslims (represented by the prime minister). However, unresolved sectarian differences eventually devolved into a civil war that lasted from 1975 to 1990, in which both Israeli and Syrian forces intervened—and more than one hundred thousand people died. Syrian forces withdrew from Lebanon in 2005 following the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, but a war between Israel and Hezbollah quickly followed in 2006.
Since these hostilities, sectarian tensions between Hezbollah and other religious sects have increased, particularly among Sunnis and Maronite Christians. The unique balance of power within the country has made it increasingly difficult for all stakeholders to come to political agreements, especially when it comes to filling the presidency. In addition to a two-and-a-half-year leadership gap from 2014 to 2016, Lebanon is currently without a president after the conclusion of Michel Aoun’s contentious term in October 2022. Furthermore, Lebanese politics has become a proxy battleground for Iran, which provides support for Hezbollah; and Saudi Arabia, which backed former Prime Minister Saad Hariri and other Sunni politicians.
Lebanon’s tenuous political situation can largely be attributed to political gridlock but has also occurred because of spillover from the Syrian civil war. In addition to hosting more than 1.5 million refugees (over 800,000 of whom are Syrian), the nearly thirteen-year conflict in Syria has affected cross-border trade and dampened Lebanon’s tourism industry. In addition to the world’s third-highest ratio of debt to gross domestic product, Lebanon also maintains one of the largest refugee populations per capita.
Despite Lebanon’s dissociation policy, Hezbollah’s armed component has also been involved in the Syrian civil war and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This has exacerbated relations between Hezbollah and Israel along the shared (and disputed) Israel-Lebanon border and has led to increasingly hostile rhetorical exchanges between Hezbollah and Israel over Israeli air strikes in Syria. Hezbollah has allegedly supported Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since the start of the Syrian war in 2011.
In October 2019, widespread protests erupted throughout Lebanon as a result of endemic corruption and a complete stagnation of the economy. Protestors—coming from all religious sects—called for the establishment of a new political regime, which did away with the sectarian divides that had plagued the country since its independence. This rare unity among the citizens resulted in the resignation of the Cabinet of Ministers and put into motion the reshuffling of the government. However, the COVID-19 pandemic put an effective end to any change that had been culminating.
Tensions between the government and its citizens reached an all-time high once again following an explosion at the Port of Beirut in August 2020, which cost an estimated $15 billion in damages and left more than 300,000 homeless. The explosion—which many attributed to years of government negligence—reignited widespread protests and saw the entire cabinet resign, with the government staying on only in a caretaker capacity. The domestic investigation into the explosion has become a highly politicized affair as the Shia-majority political parties, Amal and Hezbollah, have moved to obstruct the investigation by shielding politicians and threatening the presiding judge.
Recent Developments
The culmination of several factors, including widespread government corruption, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Beirut port explosion, have led to the worst financial crisis in the small country’s history. After Prime Minister Najib Mikati announced that Lebanon would default on its Eurobond debt for the first time, the Lebanese currency began to plummet in valuation, leading to hyperinflation. In April 2023, Lebanese inflation hit a high at almost 270 percent, reducing to 254 percent in June 2023. Despite being pegged to the United States Dollar at a rate of £L1507.5 per dollar since 1997, the Lebanese pound reached a new low of more than £L100,000 per dollar in March 2023.
In 2022, the Lebanese government and the IMF came to a staff-level agreement that would provide billions in economic assistance. The deal, however, is contingent on implementing several complex economic reforms that would increase financial and political transparency in Lebanon. While the government has been slow to implement reforms, more than 80 percent of the population lives in multidimensional poverty. Following the conclusion of President Michel Aoun’s term, the government has been unable to elect a new president, leaving the country in a political and economic vacuum. In June 2023, protests aimed at banks and politicians erupted after lawmakers failed in their twelfth attempt to elect a president. As of February 2024, the presidency remains vacant, with no indication of when the seat will be filled.
In early October 2023, tensions along the Lebanon-Israel border spiked in the wake of Hamas’ attack on Israel from Gaza and Israel’s subsequent military campaign against the militant group. Though separate entities, Hezbollah and Hamas have long been united in their shared objective of armed resistance against Israel. Hezbollah not only voiced support for the attack but also fired artillery and rockets in solidarity with Palestinians across Israel’s northern border, raising fears that another front would be opened leading to a broader conflict in the Middle East. Within the first few days of the war, at least three of Hezbollah’s members were killed during an Israeli bombardment of southern Lebanon.”
To send a message of deterrence to Iran and Hezbollah, the United States quickly deployed two of the Navy’s most powerful carrier strike groups to the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Despite its posturing, the Biden administration made it clear that the carriers and their accompanying weaponry were not there to engage in combat activities on behalf of Israel. This move by the United States did little to deter Hezbollah – in November 2023, the party’s leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, pledged that the front against its enemy would remain indefinitely active.
As of February 2024, fighting between Hezbollah and the Israeli military along the southern Lebanese border continues to escalate, having displaced over 90,000 individuals from south Lebanon. Since October 7, 2023, more than 1,700 rockets have been fired from Lebanon toward Israel, killing 15 Israelis, and injuring more than 150 people, according to the Israeli military. Approximately 158 Lebanese people have been killed in the ongoing violence including at least 25 civilians, and 686 people have been wounded. On October 13, a Reuters journalist was killed and six other journalists were wounded in shelling by Israeli forces while they were reporting at the border. Fueled by concerns about journalists being potentially targeted in Gaza and south Lebanon, human rights organizations have called for an investigation into the attack. On November 5, an Israeli air strike on a car between the southern Lebanese villages of Aynata and Aitaroun killed three girls between the ages of ten and fourteen and their grandmother, sparking outrage throughout the country.
On January 2, 2024, Israel launched a drone strike on a Hamas office in Dahiyeb, a southern suburb of Beirut, killing seven people. Though the Israeli military and intelligence service have historically conducted assassinations on Palestinian leaders in Lebanon, this strike was the first in the country’s capital since 2006. Among those killed were Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy chief of the Hamas political bureau, and two senior commanders of the Qassam Brigades. In response, Hezbollah’s Nasrallah pledged to retaliate, while Lebanon filed a complaint to the United Nations Security Council over the assassination. As of February 2024, the border remains volatile, with near-daily exchanges of fire, driving fears of regional spillover of the Gaza conflict.
Israeli Strike Kills Four in Lebanon
An Israeli strike on a vehicle in southern Lebanon killed four, Lebanon’s health ministry said, in one of the deadliest attacks in weeks (Reuters).
Foreign Minister Says Syria Open to Meeting Hezbollah
Syria’s foreign minister said that Damascus was open to meeting Hezbollah “if interests require it,” according to Lebanon’s state news agency; his comment came after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested that Syrian forces combat Hezbollah in Lebanon (Reuters).
Hundreds of Thousands of Displaced Civilians Return to Lebanon
Approximately four hundred thousand Lebanese civilians returned to southern Lebanon, the social affairs minister said, due to a lull in fighting between Israel and Hezbollah (Reuters).
Netanyahu Says Israel Will Not Leave Southern Lebanon
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Lebanese territory occupied by the Israeli military, telling soldiers that Israel would not withdraw from southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah continued to pose a threat (Reuters).
Hezbollah Leader Rejects Agreement
Under the initial agreement signed in Washington, Israel will withdraw from two areas in southern Lebanon, transferring the sites to the Lebanese military (CNN). In a statement, Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem rejected the U.S.-brokered agreement, describing it as a surrender to Israel and accusing the Lebanese government of undermining Lebanon’s sovereignty (Reuters).
Israel and Lebanon Sign Framework Agreement
Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement in Washington following several days of talks, which both sides characterized as an initial step to secure an end to fighting between Israel and Hezbollah (Reuters). Secretary of State Marco Rubio called the agreement the “beginning of the beginning,” acknowledging that there is “a lot of work ahead” (State).
Israeli Fire Kills Two in Lebanon, Testing Ceasefire
Israeli gunfire killed two people in southern Lebanon, Lebanon’s Civil Defense and health ministry said, prompting Hezbollah to accuse Israel of violating the ceasefire that has led to the longest lull in fighting since the start of the conflict (Reuters). Lebanon and Israel began a new round of talks in Washington, their fifth round of talks since the war began on March 2 (Reuters).
Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Largely Holds
Lebanon is experiencing the longest pause in fighting since Hezbollah and Israel resumed hostilities in March, following Israeli attacks two days earlier (Reuters).
Netanyahu Rules Out IDF Withdrawal From Southern Lebanon
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the IDF would remain in what he termed the “security zone” in southern Lebanon “for as long as necessary,” and Israel’s Defense Minister separately stated there would be no withdrawal from seized territory in Lebanon (Times of Israel).
Israeli Strikes Kill Twenty in Lebanon Hours After Ceasefire
Israel, Hezbollah Agree to Ceasefire After Escalation in Hostilities
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire, a U.S. official said, after the Lebanese health ministry reported that Israel’s airstrikes killed at least forty-seven overnight; Israel also reported four of its soldiers were killed by Hezbollah attacks in southern Lebanon (Reuters). The ceasefire, which President Trump reportedly asked Israeli leaders to agree to, came after Iran temporarily withdrew from negotiations with the United States following the Israeli attacks (NYT).
Iran: U.S.-Iran Agreement Extends to Fighting in Lebanon
Iranian and Pakistani officials have said that the agreement between the United States and Iran would include an end to the fighting in Lebanon; however, President Trump has not publicly commented on whether that is the case (NYT). Hezbollah issued a statement congratulating Iran, its primary backer, for what it described as the “major achievement” of securing a “comprehensive ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon” (NYT). Meanwhile, Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, said that Israel plans to stay “indefinitely” in the land it holds in Lebanon, and threatened that if Iran attacks Israel over its strikes in Lebanon, Israel will strike Iran with “great force” (AP). Fighting in southern Lebanon eased after the U.S-Iran agreement was announced, but an Israeli drone strike killed one person, and authorities warned displaced people not to rush home (Reuters). The secretariat of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said war and military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, would end permanently starting tonight (Reuters).
Israeli Strike on Beirut Complicates U.S.-Iran Talks
Israeli strikes on the outskirts of Beirut, which killed three people and injured sixteen, were condemned by President Trump, who said in a social media post that the strikes “should not have happened,” urging Israel and Hezbollah to exercise restraint as the United States and Iran moved toward signing a framework agreement (NYT). Prior to the strikes, the Israeli military said that Hezbollah had launched three projectiles towards communities in northern Israel in violation of a ceasefire in Lebanon (Reuters). Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said in a statement it “strongly condemns” the Israeli strikes, which it described as a “blatant violation of Lebanon’s national sovereignty;” Iran also said that the United States bears “direct responsibility” for Israel’s “ceasefire violations” (BBC).
Israeli Strikes Kill Thirteen in Southern Lebanon
Continued Israeli strikes on Tyre and the surrounding areas of southern Lebanon have killed at least thirteen (Reuters). Additionally, UN human rights chief Volker Türk said that a team of investigators will deploy to Lebanon next week to assess potential violations of international law by all parties (Al Jazeera).
Israeli Strikes Kill Eight in Tyre as It Issues New Evacuation Order
Israeli strikes in the southern Lebanese city of Tyre killed eight people before Israel issued an evacuation order, telling the whole city—including its northwestern Christian quarter— to leave before launching further attacks (Reuters).
Israeli Strikes Kill Nine in Southern Lebanon, Days After Ceasefire
Israeli strikes across southern Lebanon killed nine people, in what Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called a “flagrant violation” of the country’s sovereignty and of international law; three Lebanese army officers were among those killed (AP).
Hezbollah Rejects Ceasefire Agreement
Hezbollah rejected the latest ceasefire agreement between Israel and the Lebanese government, demanding a complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon (BBC). Hezbollah leader Naim Kassem called the agreement “absurd, humiliating, and insulting,” and said that the demand that Hezbollah fighters leave southern Lebanon was tantamount to surrender (NPR). The announcement came as Israeli strikes killed at least four people, and a UN peacekeeper was killed in the crossfire (AP).
Israel and Lebanese Government Agree to Ceasefire
Israel and the Lebanese government have agreed to implement a ceasefire following U.S.-led negotiations; according to the statement, the ceasefire is contingent on a cessation of Hezbollah fire, Israel’s withdrawal south of the Litani River, and the creation of “pilot” security zones inside Lebanon from which Hezbollah would be banned (State).
Lebanon Reaches Partial Ceasefire With Israel
The Lebanese Embassy in Washington said that Israel had agreed to halt its attacks on Beirut and its southern suburbs that are controlled by Hezbollah, while the Iran-backed group would cease attacks; however, the IDF is continuing operations in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah has not stopped its attacks on northern Israel (Reuters).
Netanyahu: Capture of Beaufort Castle Marks “Decisive Shift”
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said IDF soldiers would remain at the strategic fort as part of Israel’s expanding security zone in Lebanon (Guardian). Israel issued an evacuation warning to Lebanese residents for all of southern Lebanon below the Zahrani river, moving beyond its earlier demarcation of the Litani river (BBC).
Israel Launches Over 120 Strikes in Heaviest Bombardment in Weeks
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the Israeli military was expanding operations in the country as the bombing campaign further undermined the April 16 ceasefire (Reuters).
Hezbollah Warns Against Talks
The group’s leader has called for the Lebanese government to abandon direct negotiations with Israel, which are scheduled to continue in Washington this week; in a letter to Hezbollah officials, he wrote that the potential disarmament of Hezbollah, a key issue in the negotiations, was an internal matter (AP).
Israel Strikes Beirut
Israel struck Beirut for the first time since agreeing to a ceasefire with Hezbollah last month, targeting a commander of the militant group’s elite Radwan force (Reuters). The Israel-Lebanon truce agreed to last month stipulated that Israel would only conduct defensive operations (State). The attack on the city’s southern suburbs underscored how fighting in Lebanon could pose an obstacle to a regional peace deal—even as Iran studies a U.S. proposal to end the war; a draft U.S.-Iran agreement would include a ceasefire in Lebanon, Israel’s Channel 12 reported, while unnamed U.S. officials told the Wall Street Journal that multiple different drafts of a deal are being considered (Times of Israel; WSJ).
Israel Issues New Evacuation Order
Despite a ceasefire agreement, Israel warned residents of southern Lebanon to evacuate their homes ahead of renewed Israeli military operations; the evacuation order covered the area north of the Litani River, stretching beyond the area Israel previously said it would occupy (CNA).
Israeli Strikes Kill Nine in Southern Lebanon Despite Ceasefire
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed at least nine people on Thursday, with the victims including two children, Lebanon’s health ministry reported (BBC).
Hezbollah’s Stance on Armament
Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem said in a statement that the group would not give up its weapons, rejecting one of Israel’s key goals in its peace talks with Lebanon; Israel has continued to strike targets in Lebanon despite a ceasefire, saying Hezbollah has also violated the truce (NYT). Qassem criticized the Lebanese government for its decision to enter peace talks, while Lebanese President Joseph Aoun responded that Hezbollah had committed “treason” by not consulting the country when entering the war against Israel (Le Monde).
Lebanon Truce Extended
Following talks with Israeli and Lebanese envoys, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a ceasefire in Lebanon will go on for three more weeks (Truth Social). The extension buys more time for diplomacy toward a peace deal between the two countries (WaPo). A senior member of Hezbollah’s political council told the Associated Press the group would not abide by agreements reached in the Israel-Lebanon talks (AP).
Israel and Hezbollah Accuse Each Other of Violating Ceasefire
Hezbollah said Israel attacked civilians and homes in the country’s south and that the group had responded by firing into northern Israel (Reuters). Israel’s military said buildings it targets were part of Hezbollah’s infrastructure, which are not covered by the ceasefire (Times of Israel). In a meeting with Lebanon’s president, French President Emmanuel Macron said he would help the country prepare for talks with Israel (Reuters).
Israel-Lebanon Talks to Proceed in Washington
A ten-day truce in Lebanon announced last Thursday has largely held, though Israel has warned some displaced Lebanese families not to return to their homes inside the Israeli military buffer zone (NYT). A U.S. State Department spokesperson confirmed that peace negotiations between Israel and Lebanon will take place on Thursday in Washington (Reuters). Lebanon’s delegation in separate talks with Israel will be led by the country’s former U.S. ambassador, Simon Karam, President Joseph Aoun said (Haaretz). Israel will be represented by its ambassador to the United States, an unnamed U.S. official (Times of Israel).