Brazil’s Impending Hangover

After months of suspense, President Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment looks set to proceed in a floor vote in the Chamber of Deputies on Sunday, April 17. At present, impeachment seems more likely than not: Vice President Michel Temer and his allies have overcome many of the political hurdles to impeachment by skillfully creating a bandwagon effect among legislators, in part by arguing that there is little point in continued support for the outgoing Rousseff and that now is the time to make sweet deals with the incoming Temer administration. This week’s desertions mean that of the seven largest parties in Congress, only one (the PT) still supports the president, while five are in opposition (PMDB, PSDB, PP, PSB, and DEM) and one is still officially undecided (PR).

Like a long night of heavy drinking, Sunday’s impeachment vote may feel at the time like a fitting way to put an end to the Rousseff years of economic mismanagement and political turmoil. Many Brazilians may be out demonstrating on Sunday, and celebrating (or drowning their sorrows) late into the evening. But Monday morning will bring a massive hangover, and like the aftermath of many a hard night, the morning after will bring as many new puzzles as it resolves:

In Brazil’s crazy political moment, a much less likely but not entirely implausible scenario is that Rousseff survives Sunday’s vote, perhaps by convincing enough wavering legislators to simply absent themselves from Congress, if they can’t stomach voting in her favor. In that case, there will still be a hangover, but of a different sort, like the difference between drinking cachaça instead of rum. This hangover will include a defenestrated and visibly exhausted president, a dysfunctional coalition, the continued threat of removal via a new impeachment request or an electoral court conviction, and continued macroeconomic malaise.

Either way, Monday morning’s hangover is going to be painful.