China-Russia Relations: November 2024

Diplomatic Cooperation: On Thursday, November 14, Secretary of the Russian Federation Security Council Sergey Shoigu attended a military showcase in Zhuhai, China, which AP said featured “Chinese and Russian aircraft and other military hardware” such as Chinese J22 and J35A stealth fighters. Although no clear evidence currently exists that China is providing Russia with military aid, the visit still highlights their close military cooperation, which also includes joint military exercises. A few days earlier, Russian news outlets reported Shoigu’s statement that he “see[s] the most important task as countering the policy of ‘dual containment’ of Russia and China pursued by the United States and its satellites.” That rhetoric is nothing new, though it ignores the more complicated and delicate relationship China has with the West.

At the Group of Twenty (G20) Summit on November 19, foreign ministers Wang Yi and Sergei Lavrov spoke about China-Russia cooperation, the war in Ukraine, and the situation in the Korean Peninsula. According to Reuters, Lavrov told Wang that “we are truly at an unprecedented stage in the development of our strategic relations of a comprehensive partnership.” Beijing mirrored that commitment.

The West and Russia-China Relations: At what is likely to be their last meeting, U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping spoke at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit on November 16. Xi addressed maintaining a stable relationship between the two countries as a new administration enters the White House. China expressed concern over protectionist policies and tariff increases, which President-Elect Donald Trump could favor. In a statement prior to the bilateral meeting, Xi said the United States and China should “keep exploring the right way for two major countries to get along well with each other.” Biden answered, “Our two countries cannot let any of this competition veer into conflict.” The relationship, of course, remains tremendously tense in the context of Taiwan, Chinese support for Russia, and cyber espionage. However, that tension highlights China’s unique place between Russia and the West; for its own security, it cannot firmly plant itself in any camp. Russia can continue affirming allyship with China, but it is unlikely to experience the “no-limits commitment” it was promised. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s conversation with Xi at the G20 Summit also indicated the West’s continued willingness to keep open communication with China, despite the friction. Scholz said, reported Reuters, that “no one should have to fear their neighbors,” implicating both the situation in Taiwan and Ukraine. Those open conversations, along with the West’s desire for China to exert its influence over North Korean troop deployment, suggest that China is to some extent playing the global intermediary role it desires. 

Putin’s Statement on Taiwan: On Thursday, November 7, Russian President Vladimir Putin again affirmed Russia’s close relationship with China and its support for the country’s claim over Taiwan. He accused Taiwan of unnecessarily stoking tensions “to instigate a crisis in Asia and then tell everyone else, ‘Get over here! You need me to cope with this.’”

Ukraine: After the mobilization of thousands of North Korean troops to fight in Ukraine, the United States and South Korea have urged China to leverage its influence over the two countries to prevent further military escalation. On October 29, U.S. officials Kurt Campbell, Daniel J. Kritenbrink, and James O’Brien met with Chinese diplomats in Washington, DC, to discuss that development. At an October 31 press conference, Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that China is aware the United States expects that “they’ll use the influence that they have to work to curb these activities” and that “this call is not only coming from the U.S.” Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin added that China “should be asking Russia some hard questions.” The United States hopes that China will raise the issue with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and potentially contain or stop the deployment efforts. China is likely wary of Russia’s partnership with North Korea, as it could undermine some of China’s[CJ1]  global influence and destabilize the region. It could also increase Europe’s involvement in East Asian security, including Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula.

NATO and the European Union (EU) have also called for China to exert its influence over North Korea. On November 4, the European Union’s Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell visited Japan and South Korea with clear concern over North Korea’s troop deployment. On November 6, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte wrote in Politico that “China bears particular responsibility here, to use its influence in Pyongyang and Moscow to ensure they cease these actions. Beijing cannot pretend to promote peace while turning a blind eye to increasing aggression.” That statement, combined with American pressure, shows that China needs to carefully balance its relationship with Russia and the West, making it more difficult for the country to take a firm stance. China has not publicly spoken about the mobilization, continuing to present itself as an arbiter of peace. In response to a New York Times request for comment, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman said, “We hope all parties will promote the de-escalation of the situation and strive for a political settlement.”

Despite the international backlash, cooperation between China and Russia remains steadfast. On October 30, Wang met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko to discuss the war in Ukraine. Reuters reported that, though the two did not disclose the specifics of the discussion, Wang expressed relations with Russia remain strong in lieu of “changes in the international system.” The following day, Lavrov discussed prospects for peace in Ukraine with Chinese Special Envoy for Eurasian Affairs Li Hui, who manages China’s policy on Ukraine. During remarks at the summit in Brazil, Xi called on G20 leaders to help “cool the Ukraine crisis and seek a political solution.” His remarks shortly followed the U.S. authorization for Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike targets within Russian territory. Xi reiterated his remarks later in the month when he met with Brazilian President Lula da Silva in Brazil. As the state-run Xinhua news outlet reported, Xi demanded there be “more voices committed to peace to pave the way for a political solution to the Ukraine crisis.”

Meanwhile, Chinese sanctions on U.S. drone manufacturer Skydio, which supplies equipment to the Ukrainian military, are severely disrupting the company’s critical supply chains. Skydio has appealed to the Biden administration for support as China’s actions directly limits the company’s ability to provide Ukraine with drones used for intelligence gathering. Contradictorily, Ukraine and China are reportedly in discussions to open exports for several of Ukraine’s agricultural products, including wheat flour, beef, and corn. On November 21, Ma Shengkun assumed his post as the new Chinese ambassador to Ukraine. Upon his arrival in Kyiv, Shengkun stated that “China and Ukraine are traditional friendly partners” and expressed his “full confidence in the prospects for the deepened development of bilateral relations,” according to the South China Morning Post.