Europe’s Plan to Rearm and Other Headlines of the Day

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Top of the Agenda

EU leaders committed to the bloc’s biggest military build-up in decades yesterday. They signed on to the principles of a rearmament plan at a Brussels summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In a separate declaration, all EU countries except Hungary pledged military and diplomatic backing for Kyiv. The show of support comes as U.S. President Donald Trump has called for Europe to provide security guarantees for Ukraine after a potential end to the war with Russia—and as Zelenskyy prepares for a meeting with U.S. officials next week.

What Europe pledged. Yesterday’s commitments in Brussels were about principles rather than fine print, with many details left to be negotiated.

• The rearmament plan envisions permission for countries to disregard debt limits for military spending and for the EU budget to directly fund defense capabilities. It would provide more than $160 billion in loans for member countries to use on military spending and utilize the European Investment Bank to mobilize private capital. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen estimated that together, the steps could yield more than $860 billion in military spending.
• The political declaration, from which Hungary abstained, said there “can be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine,” that any truce in the Russia-Ukraine war should be part of a process leading to a comprehensive peace agreement, and that any such agreement must come with “robust and credible” security guarantees for Ukraine. It added that peace must respect Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity—and committed to continuing to arm and train Ukraine’s military.

The U.S. factor. President Trump continues to urge Ukraine toward peace talks with Russia and call for European countries to take more responsibility for their defense. In recent days, the United States cut off military and intelligence aid to Ukraine.

• Yesterday, Trump told reporters it was “common sense” not to defend NATO allies that “don’t pay” sufficiently into the alliance. His comments cast doubt on his administration’s commitment to NATO’s Article 5, known as the mutual defense clause. 
• Keith Kellogg, U.S. special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, said at a CFR event yesterday that cutting off military aid to Ukraine “got their attention” as Washington urges them toward peace talks, adding that “it’s a pause. It’s not an end.” 
• Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, yesterday praised Zelenskyy’s efforts to reconcile with Washington after U.S.-Ukraine talks broke down last Friday in the Oval Office. U.S. and Ukrainian officials agreed to meet in Saudi Arabia early next week, during which time Witkoff said “a framework for a peace agreement and an initial cease-fire” could be discussed. 

“As the United States is withdrawing from Europe or at least moving in that direction, as it’s cozying up with Russia, the Europeans are committed to dramatically increase defense spending… In theory, in the longer term, this could lead to a rebalancing of the relationship between the United States and Europe where both partners spend roughly equally on defense and lead to a new era in transatlantic security relations. But in practice, it will all depend on what will happen in Ukraine,” CFR expert Matthias Matthijs says in this YouTube Short.

Across the Globe

U.S. tariff exemptions grow. Trump issued a one-month reprieve from 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods traded under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). (In 2024, an estimated 50 percent of Mexican exports and 38 percent of Canadian exports to the United States were duty-free under the treaty.) Canada’s finance minister said the country would maintain tariffs applied Tuesday but postpone another round slated for later this month, while the country’s trade minister said Ottawa was ready to sit down for an early renegotiation of the USMCA in order to provide “stability and predictability.” Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum held a call with Trump before yesterday’s announcement; she said the countries will “continue working together.” 

Beijing’s stance on U.S. tariffs. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said today that Beijing would continue to retaliate against “arbitrary” U.S. tariffs and that efforts to “suppress China and maintain a good relationship with China at the same time” harm bilateral relations. He said supporters of Taiwan’s independence are “playing with fire and will burn themselves.” 

Tests in Syria’s transition. The United Kingdom (UK) yesterday became the first country to entirely unfreeze assets of Syria’s central bank following the December ouster of President Bashar al-Assad. The UK also ended sanctions on oil groups and commercial banks, saying it supports rebuilding. Separately, armed individuals loyal to Assad killed at least sixteen Syrian government security personnel yesterday, a war monitor said. The clashes—some of Syria’s worst violence since December—broke out in a coastal region home to many in the Alawite minority, which includes the Assad family.

Guyana-Venezuela tensions. Guyana asked the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to block Venezuela from carrying out an election in the Guyana-controlled, disputed regionof Essequibo. Venezuela’s communications ministry did not immediately comment. The ICJ previously issued a 2023 order forbidding Caracas from changing the status quo in the territory. Last week, Guyana said a Venezuelan ship entered its waters near Essequibo without permission; Venezuela said it was an international zone.

Treason probe in Romania. Authorities detained six men on allegations of treason, saying they plotted with Russia to overthrow Romania’s government. Two senior Russian diplomats were also expelled from Romania on Wednesday, the country’s domestic intelligence agency said. Russia’s foreign ministry called the Romanian prosecutors’ accusations “speculations.” A former Romanian general who said his home was raided in the probe did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

DRC exodus to Burundi. Almost sixty-three thousand people have fled from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to Burundi in less than a month, the UN refugee agency said. It is Burundi’s largest such influx in decades and has overwhelmed sheltersand aid resources. As clashes between rebels and government forces in the DRC continue, the refugee agency has appealed for emergency funding. 

U.S. exits global green transition aid program. The United States withdrew from a global climate initiative that aims to help Indonesia, Vietnam, and South Africa transition their economies away from fossil fuels, a U.S. Treasury Department spokesperson said. The UK’s climate envoy called the exit “regrettable” but said there was a path forward for the program, named the Just Energy Transition Partnership. The program also relies on contributions from donors such as the EU, the UK, and Japan.

Order for release of South Korea’s president. A court ordered the release of impeached president Yoon Suk Yeol, saying that the legal period for his arrest expired before charges were filed against him. Following his short-lived martial law declaration in December, Yoon is now a defendant in two separate cases: one criminal case for allegedly leading an insurrection and another on whether he should be removed from office. 

The Weekend Ahead

• Tropical Cyclone Alfred is expected to make landfall in Australia.

• Canada’s Liberal Party concludes its leadership election.

• Countries around the world mark International Women’s Day.

• Daylight saving time begins in the United States.