U.S.-Iran Hold Third Round of Nuclear Talks
By experts and staff
- Published
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Top of the Agenda
The United States and Iran are holding another round of indirect nuclear talks today in Geneva, with both sides threatening war if diplomacy fails. The United States has deployed its largest military buildup in the Middle East in decades, and Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said yesterday that a U.S. strike would trigger a “devastating war” and could ignite a broader conflict due to the presence of U.S. bases across the region. Like U.S. President Donald Trump, Araghchi maintained that a deal is preferable. The state news agency of mediator Oman said today that both sides were demonstrating “unprecedented openness to new and creative ideas and solutions,” but did not provide further details.
What’s being discussed. The countries are floating proposals that include limiting the amount of uranium Iran is allowed to enrich, temporarily suspending Iran’s enrichment activity, and dismantling its main nuclear sites, according to reports from multiple news outlets. Iranian officials have publicly said their proposal includes pledges to purchase U.S. goods and welcome more U.S. investment. Yet U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said yesterday that Iran has refused to consider concessions regarding its ballistic missiles despite U.S. urging, calling it a “big problem.”
Regional repercussions. The United States and Australia have pulled diplomatic staff from some regional outposts as the threat of conflict looms, and multiple countries have warned their nationals to leave Iran. Other countries are considering their own roles as regional tensions escalate. U.S. partners Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have publicly said the United States cannot use their territory to attack Iran. The United Kingdom (UK) also blocked U.S. use of UK airbases in the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia and in England for any pre-emptive attack, multiple news outlets reported.
“[Risks that conflict with Iran poses for the U.S. military] are magnified because of the likely lack of support from any allies—aside from Israel—for U.S. operations against Iran. The United States could still successfully strike targets in Iran, but it is far from clear that such attacks would bring major concessions from the regime. The president would be well advised to take these considerable risks and costs into account before starting a war without an obvious exit strategy.”
—CFR expert Max Boot
Across the Globe
U.S.-Ukraine diplomacy. Bilateral talks between the two countries regarding ongoing peace negotiations with Russia and plans for postwar reconstruction are also taking place in Geneva today. After a call with Trump ahead of today’s meeting, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on social media yesterday that he soon expects an opportunity to move negotiations “to the leaders’ level.”
Merz in Beijing. China will buy as many as 120 aircraft from European firm Airbus, Germany’s Merz said during a visit to Beijing yesterday. Merz praised China-Germany ties amid a “turbulent” world. His visit follows recent trips to China by the leaders of France and the UK. China became Germany’s top trade partner last year. While Merz told reporters that China’s export overcapacity continued to concern Germany, China’s foreign ministry noted that both countries had pledged to resolve trade concerns “through candid and open dialogue.”
Ruling on third-country deportations. A federal judge ruled yesterday that the Trump administration’s policy of deporting immigrants to places other than their countries of origin is unconstitutional. U.S. authorities must provide deportees sufficient time to challenge their deportations by raising fears of persecution at their designated destination, the judge wrote. A spokesperson for the Justice Department denounced the ruling. The judge paused his order for fifteen days, and administration lawyers have said they are likely to appeal.
U.S. allows limited fuel for Cuba. The Treasury Department announced yesterday that it would permit Venezuelan fuel to be resold to Cuba if it is bought by Cuba’s small private sector. Fuel shipments to Cuba have virtually dried up since Washington banned Venezuela from selling oil to Cuba last month and threatened tariffs on any country that ships fuel to the island. UN experts warned the restrictions could result in a humanitarian crisis in the country.
Cuba speedboat altercation. Cuban military forces killed four people on a U.S.-registered speedboat yesterday after a passenger on the boat opened fire at Cuban officers, Cuba’s interior ministry said. It later added that preliminary findings suggested the passengers were Cuban nationals living in the United States who aimed to carry out “an infiltration for terrorist purposes.” Rubio said the incident was not a U.S. government operation but the United States would investigate it.
India’s Modi in Israel. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi became the country’s first leader to address the Israeli legislature yesterday, highlighting both countries’ counterterrorism efforts and saying India “stands with Israel, firmly, with full conviction.” Under Modi, a Hindu nationalist, India has strengthened ties with Israel—becoming Israel’s second-largest trading partner in Asia—and pivoted away from its historic support for Palestinians. Both countries pledged to expand trade, defense, and energy ties.
Zimbabwe’s mineral export ban. The government announced yesterday it was suspending exports of all raw minerals and lithium concentrates and called for the mining industry to comply with its rules, including requirements that exporters obtain specific permits. Earlier this month, the mining ministry told companies it was monitoring “malpractices” and “leakages” among exporters.
Lai wins appeal in Hong Kong. A Hong Kong appellate court overturned a fraud conviction against pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai today, ruling that prosecutors had failed to prove their claims beyond reasonable doubt. The ruling does not affect a separate twenty-year sentence Lai is serving after being convicted under Hong Kong’s national security law. While the overturned conviction is a legal victory for one of Hong Kong’s most prominent pro-democracy voices, Lai’s daughter Claire called the ruling a “PR move by the Hong Kong authorities.”