As a Strait of Hormuz Standoff Grows, Will Trump’s Fragile Iran Ceasefire Hold?
After nearly six weeks of fighting, the United States and Iran agreed to a temporary truce, brokered by Pakistan. What are the conditions of the ceasefire, and what’s the likelihood it will lead to a permanent deal?
By experts and staff
- Published
By
- Mariel FerragamoWriter/Editor
- Diana RoySenior Writer/Editor, Latin America
The United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire on the evening of April 7 after nearly six weeks of fighting that has disrupted global energy markets and spread to a large portion of the Middle East. U.S. President Donald Trump said on social media that he would “suspend the bombing and attack of Iran” on the condition that the country completely and immediately reopen the Strait of Hormuz. But Iran said it had again closed the strait following continued Israeli attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon the day after the ceasefire was called.
Trump’s announcement came a mere hour-and-a-half before an 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time deadline that he gave Iran to reopen the waterway—the choke point for nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supply. If Iran did not follow through, the president threatened that “a whole civilization will die tonight.” Earlier that day, the U.S. military carried out a fresh round of strikes on Kharg Island, a small island in the northern Persian Gulf that handles approximately 90 percent of Iran’s crude oil exports.
In a Pentagon press conference on April 8, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said Operation Epic Fury had resulted in a “historic and overwhelming victory” in Iran, having decimated its military and rendered the country “combat ineffective for years to come.” However, he added that U.S. military forces are “prepared to defend, prepared to go on offensive, [and] prepared to restart at a moment’s notice” to ensure Iran’s compliance with the ceasefire.
Although negotiations for a more permanent agreement are scheduled for April 10 in Islamabad, Pakistan, some experts are skeptical the talks will lead to substantive, long-term change. “There has been no regime change in Iran, the current leadership is not any less radical than their predecessors, the Iranians still have the ability to menace their neighbors, and Iran has leverage over the Strait of Hormuz when it did not before the war began,” Steven A. Cook, Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies, told CFR. “I don’t see how negotiations will change this reality.”
What are the terms of the ceasefire?
Although the full terms of the ceasefire have not been released, the United States has agreed to pause military strikes on Iran for a conditional two-week period. Trump has said that all U.S. military objectives in Iran have already been met.
Trump said Iran had to agree to the “COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING” of the Strait of Hormuz, which has been largely closed since the war broke out in late February. According to Trump, the United States will assist with managing traffic buildup in the strait. Iran will also not be allowed to enrich uranium, something Trump said the two countries will work together to dig up and remove. It remains unclear how Iran’s decision to close the strait again will affect the fragile ceasefire.
In return, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said in an April 7 statement that the country’s military would “cease their defensive operations” if U.S. and Israeli attacks stopped. It also agreed to safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for the two-week period, though only “via coordination” with the Iranian armed forces and with “due consideration of technical limitations.”
Notably, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel supports the ceasefire agreement but that it does not apply to Lebanon—where the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah is based—which has been the target of Israeli attacks since early March. His statement contradicted that of Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who said that the United States, Iran, and Israel “agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon.”
Trump later concurred that Lebanon is not included in the truce, referring to Israel’s war against Hezbollah as a “separate skirmish.” Hours after the ceasefire was called, Israel targeted Hezbollah in a wave of strikes on Lebanon’s capital, Beirut, and across the country, prompting Iran to accuse Israel of violating the truce and threaten to withdraw from the agreement altogether.
What does Iran want?
Iran has submitted a ten-point plan for peace, which Trump described as a “workable basis on which to negotiate.” The plan is a counterproposal to a fifteen-point agreement previously drafted by the United States in late March.
The official Iranian plan remains unclear, as several versions released in Farsi and English contain different phrasing. But Iranian state-linked media has cited several general provisions that it wants the United States to commit to, including
- a complete halt on aggression against Iran and its allied groups;
- allowing continued Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz;
- acceptance of Iran enriching uranium;
- lifting all primary sanctions on Iran;
- lifting all secondary sanctions against foreign firms that do business with Iranian entities;
- terminating all UN Security Council resolutions against Iran;
- ending all resolutions on Iran’s nuclear program under the International Atomic Energy Agency;
- paying compensation to Iran for war damage;
- withdrawing all U.S. combat forces from the region; and
- ceasing hostilities on all fronts, including between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The United States has dismissed many of those conditions in past negotiations. On Tuesday night, Trump said that “almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to” by Washington and Tehran. However, the next morning, he posted that “there will be no enrichment of Uranium,” but noted that “we are, and will be, talking Tariff and Sanctions relief.”
Trump also claimed that both parties had “agreed to” many of the points on his fifteen-point plan. Iran had previously rejected the proposal, calling its provisions—some of which reportedly include decommissioning its nuclear facilities and ending support for its regional proxies—“excessive.”
What is the next step?
Further negotiations are set for April 10 in Islamabad. Iran has confirmed its participation, while the United States has indicated it is considering in-person talks but has not confirmed a delegation yet.
Regardless, many questions remain for these discussions, as the provisions in both the ten- and fifteen-point plans lay out several hard lines for each country.
The two countries originally agreed to resume shipping across the Strait of Hormuz during the two-week truce. MarineTraffic, an organization that tracks ship traffic, confirmed early signs of vessel movement in the strait on April 8, but Iran closed it only a few hours later over the attack in Lebanon that day.
How have other countries responded?
Both Washington and Tehran have claimed victory in the ceasefire, though critical negotiations lie ahead, and already, the truce is looking tenuous.
Countries around the world were quick to welcome the cessation of fighting, including leaders from Africa, China, and Europe. Russia, considered a close strategic ally of Iran, called the ceasefire a “crushing defeat” for the United States after an “aggressive, unprovoked attack” on Iran.
French President Emmanuel Macron said that Paris supported the ceasefire, and that France was among at least fifteen countries across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East that are working with Iran to help open the Strait of Hormuz again.
Iranian state news has reported that Iran and Oman would charge transit tolls for any boats that cross the strait during the ceasefire and put the profits toward reconstruction, although Oman’s transport minister has since said that his country has no plans to do this. (This is not legal under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which Oman has ratified, though neither the United States nor Iran has.)
U.S. Vice President JD Vance called the truce “fragile,” and Trump later added that any countries that supply Iran with military weapons will be immediately hit with 50 percent tariffs.
Colophon
Data Visualization
- Austin Steinhart
- Will Merrow