One More Thing China Might be Thinking

In his most recent post on Chinese assertiveness in the South China and East China Seas, my colleague Josh Kurlantzik raises three possible answers to the question: What is China thinking? Beijing was supposedly so good at reassuring the neighbors that its rapid rise would not threaten them; it could both grow and be a responsible partner.  But now, after a few short months, a decade of good work has been ruined.  The neighbors are worried, and, at least according to the New York Times, they are looking to Washington.

Josh lists three things that might Beijing may be thinking.

Here’s a fourth possibility.  Yes, some of the rhetoric, especially from some lower level officials has become more assertive, but the leadership at the very top does not think it is doing anything different.  China has been consistently and noisily pushing very hard on maritime issues for at least the last decade (if not longer). Here’s just some of the incidents we know about: In March 2009, Chinese vessels harassed the USNS Impeccable; in 2009 China seized over 30 Vietnamese fishing vessels; and in 2005 China fired on Vietnamese ships. The Chinese have been building on Mischief Reef, which sits in water claimed by the Philippines as part of its Exclusive Economic Zone, since 1999.

Zhongnanhai may be thinking,  why is everyone is now paying attention to a topic we’ve been taking a hard line on for a long time?