Strategic competition with China will be one of the most consequential foreign policy challenges facing the next presidential administration. The era of engagement, which saw Washington integrate the country—now one of the world's two largest economies, alongside the United States—into global institutions such as the World Trade Organization (WTO), has come to a close in the wake of Beijing’s growing repressiveness at home and assertiveness abroad. 

In recent years, China has more aggressively pursued maritime and territorial claims in the South and East China Seas, rapidly increased the size of its nuclear forces, and embarked on the largest peacetime military buildup in recent history. Many U.S. policymakers worry that China is preparing to invade Taiwan, which would likely cause trillions of dollars in losses to the global economy and threaten to draw Washington into direct conflict with Beijing. Taiwan is home to the production of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, which power artificial intelligence (AI) and other technologies viewed as critical to maintaining a geopolitical advantage in the coming decades. Lawmakers from both major U.S. parties have pledged to support Taiwan if China seeks to take the island by force.

U.S. officials have also raised concerns over China’s ongoing repression of ethnic Uyghurs and other minorities and its dismantling of Hong Kong’s political freedoms and autonomy. They argue that Chinese companies produce much of the illicit fentanyl flowing into the United States. They also worry that Beijing seeks to dominate advanced technology and increase the world’s dependence on Chinese supply chains.

The next president will be faced with an increasingly contentious relationship with China on both trade and security issues. The Donald Trump administration levied a series of escalating tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese imports in an effort to pressure Beijing to buy more U.S. exports. The Biden-Harris administration has kept most of those tariffs while implementing new restrictions. It has imposed export controls on semiconductors, banned some types of investment into China, and supported the divestiture of social media app TikTok from its China-based owner. It has also focused on strengthening U.S. ties with allies and partners in the Asia-Pacific, including Australia, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea.