Conflict in Yemen and the Red Sea
Fighting between Houthi rebels and the Saudi coalition that backs Yemen’s internationally recognized government has largely subsided, but Houthis have repeatedly attacked ships transiting the Red Sea in response to Israel’s war on Hamas. Dialogue between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, along with Iranian-Saudi normalization, has provided hope for a negotiated solution. However, talks have yielded little progress and have been punctuated by violence. The Southern Transitional Council (STC) has also renewed calls for an independent southern Yemeni state, complicating peace prospects, and al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) attacks have surged. Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis has not improved; 21.6 million people need aid, including 11 million children, and more than 4.5 million are displaced.
Background
Yemen’s civil war began in 2014 when Houthi insurgents—Shiite rebels with links to Iran and a history of rising up against the Sunni government—took control of Yemen’s capital and largest city, Sanaa, demanding lower fuel prices and a new government. Following failed negotiations, the rebels seized the presidential palace in January 2015, leading President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi and his government to resign. Beginning in March 2015, a coalition of Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia launched a campaign of economic isolation and air strikes against the Houthi insurgents, with U.S. logistical and intelligence support.
In February 2015, after escaping from Sanaa, Hadi rescinded his resignation, complicating the UN-supported transitional council formed to govern from the southern port city of Aden. However, a Houthi advance forced Hadi to flee Aden for exile in Saudi Arabia. While he attempted to return to Aden later that year, he ultimately ruled as president in exile.
The intervention of regional powers in Yemen’s conflict, including Iran and Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia, also drew the country into a regional proxy struggle along the broader Sunni-Shia divide. In June 2015, Saudi Arabia implemented a naval blockade to prevent Iran from supplying the Houthis. In response, Iran dispatched a naval convoy, raising the risk of military escalation between the two countries. The militarization of Yemen’s waters also drew the attention of the U.S. Navy, which has continued to seize Yemen-bound Iranian weapons. The blockade has been at the center of the humanitarian crisis throughout the conflict. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have also led an unrelenting air campaign, with their coalition carrying out over twenty-five thousand air strikes. These strikes have caused over nineteen thousand civilian casualties, and from 2021 to 2022 the Houthis responded with a spate of drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
On the battleground, the Houthis made fast progress at the start of the war, moving eastward to Marib and pushing south to Aden in early 2015. However, a Saudi intervention pushed the Houthis back north and west until the frontlines stabilized. A UN effort to broker peace talks between allied Houthi rebels and the internationally recognized Yemeni government stalled in the summer of 2016. In the south and east of the country, a growing al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) threatened the government’s control, though its influence has since waned.
In July 2016, the Houthis and the government of former President Saleh, ousted in 2011 after nearly thirty years in power, announced the formation of a political council to govern Sana’a and much of northern Yemen. However, in December 2017, Saleh broke with the Houthis and called for his followers to take up arms against them. Saleh was killed and his forces were defeated within two days. Meanwhile, Hadi and the internationally recognized governments faced their own challenge: the Southern Transitional Council (STC). Established in 2017, the STC grew out of the southern separatist movement that predates the civil war and controls areas in the southwest around and including Aden. A 2019 Saudi-brokered deal incorporated the STC into the internationally-recognized governments, but the faction could still present challenges.
In 2018, coalition forces made an offensive push on the coast northward to the strategic city of Hodeidah, the main seaport for northern Yemen. The fighting ended in a ceasefire and commitments to withdraw troops from the city; the ceasefire largely held, but fighting continued elsewhere. Taiz, Yemen’s third largest city, also remained a key point of contention, having been blockaded by the Houthis since 2015. In 2020, the UAE officially withdrew from Yemen, but it maintains extensive influence in the country.
In February 2021, Houthi rebels launched an offensive to seize Marib, the last stronghold of Yemen’s internationally recognized government, and in early March, Houthi rebels conducted missile air strikes in Saudi Arabia, including targeting oil tankers and facilities and international airports. The Saudi-led coalition responded to the increase in attacks with air strikes targeting Sanaa. The offensive was the deadliest clash since 2018, killing hundreds of fighters and complicating peace processes.
Meanwhile, the conflict has taken a heavy toll on Yemeni civilians, making Yemen the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. The UN estimates that 60 percent of the estimated 377,000 deaths in Yemen between 2015 and the beginning of 2022 were the result of indirect causes like food insecurity and lack of accessible health services. Two-thirds of the population, or 21.6 million Yemenis, remain in dire need of assistance. Five million are at risk of famine, and a cholera outbreak has affected over one million people. All sides of the conflict are reported to have violated human rights and international humanitarian law.
An economic crisis continues to compound the ongoing humanitarian crisis. In late 2019, the conflict led to the splintering of the economy into two broad economic zones under territories controlled by the Houthis and the Saudi-backed government. In the fall of 2021, the sharp depreciation of Yemen’s currency, particularly in government-controlled areas, significantly reduced people’s purchasing power and pushed many basic necessities even further out of reach, leading to widespread protests across cities in southern Yemen. Security forces forcefully responded to the protests.
Separate from the ongoing civil war, the United States is suspected of conducting counterterrorism operations in Yemen, relying mainly on air strikes to target al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and militants associated with the self-proclaimed Islamic State. The United States is deeply invested in combating terrorism and violent extremism in Yemen, having collaborated with the Yemeni government on counterterrorism since the bombing of the USS Cole in 2000. Since 2002, the United States has carried out nearly four hundred strikes in Yemen. In April 2016, the United States deployed a small team of forces to advise and assist Saudi-led troops to retake territory from AQAP. In January 2017, a U.S. Special Operations Forces raid in central Yemen killed one U.S. service member, several suspected AQAP-affiliated fighters, and an unknown number of Yemeni civilians. Breaking from previous U.S. policy, President Joe Biden announced an end to U.S. support for Saudi-led offensive operations in Yemen in February 2021 and revoked its designation of the Houthis as a terrorist organization. In January 2024, the Houthis were redesignated as a terrorist organization due to their recent attacks on ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
In April 2022, Yemen’s internationally recognized but unpopular president, Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi, resigned after ten years in power to make way for a new seven-member presidential council more representative of Yemen’s political factions. Rashad al-Alimi, a Hadi advisor with close ties to Saudi Arabia and powerful Yemeni politicians, chairs the new council.
Recent Developments
Though a six-month UN-brokered cease-fire officially lapsed in October 2022, both sides have since refrained from major escalatory actions and hostility levels remain low. Peace talks between Saudi and Houthi officials, mediated by Oman, resumed in April 2023, accompanying ongoing UN mediation efforts. However, concrete progress remains elusive, and the first official Houthi visit to the Saudi capital since the war began, on September 14, yielded nothing beyond optimistic statements. The discussions were reportedly centered around a complete reopening of Houthi-controlled ports and Sanaa airport, reconstruction efforts, and a timeline for foreign forces to withdraw from Yemen. Negotiations have also been overshadowed by the suspension of the only commercial air route out of Sanaa and a late September Houthi drone strike that killed four Bahraini members of the Saudi-led coalition.
Talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia in April 2023, mediated by China, have raised hopes of a political settlement to end the conflict in Yemen. The talks led to a breakthrough agreement to re-establish diplomatic relations and re-open both sides’ embassies after years of tension and hostility. Iran’s UN mission said that the agreement could accelerate efforts to renew the lapsed cease-fire.
While hostility between the two warring sides remains low, AQAP’s political violence surged in May and June, reaching the highest monthly level since November 2022. Most of the violence has been centered around Yemen’s Abyan and Shawba governates, where AQAP has used drones and IEDs to target forces affiliated with the STC. In August 2023, AQAP launched an explosion that killed a military commander and three soldiers from the Security Belt Forces, an armed group loyal to the STC. Earlier that month, AQAP fighters killed five troops from another force affiliated with the separatist council. The recent use of drones by AQAP in Yemen’s south is likely an attempt to reassert its influence in the area despite its waning influence, and some speculate that this sudden and sustained use of drones signals external support. Additionally, AQAP has continued its anti-separatist efforts, with another attack in early October targeting and wounding five STC-backed fighters.
Three days following the October 7 attack on Israel, Yemen’s Houthi leader Abdel-Malek al-Houthi warned that if the United States intervenes in the Hamas-Israel War directly, the group will respond by taking military action. In mid-October, U.S. officials announced that the USS Carney downed several Houthi cruise missiles and drones fired toward Israel. The Houthis continued to launch several rounds of missiles and drones until it officially announced entry into the war to support Palestinians in the Gaza Strip on October 31. Houthi attacks of the same nature continued into November. On November 19, the Houthis hijacked a commercial ship in the Red Sea and have since attacked at least thirty-three others with drones, missiles, and speed boats as of late January 2024. As a result, major shipping companies have stopped using the Red Sea—through which almost 15 percent of global seaborne trade passes—and have rerouted to take longer and costlier journeys around Southern Africa instead. The situation has resulted in heightened shipping and insurance costs, stoking fears of a renewed cost-of-living crisis. In response to the consistent Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, the United States and United Kingdom carried out coordinated air strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen on January 11 and January 22. It is unclear whether the attacks will cease in the near future, with the Houthis vowing to persist in their military operations until a ceasefire is agreed to in the Gaza Strip and aid is allowed into the enclave.
Houthis Release Ship Crew
The crew members, who were onboard a Greek-operated vessel that the Houthis sunk in July, are being transferred out of Yemen through Oman, following their months-long detention by the group (Reuters).
STC Offensive in Eastern Yemen
Forces from the Southern Transitional Council (STC), which is supported by the United Arab Emirates (UAE), captured key cities in Hadramout province, including Seiyun, and secured oil fields in the strategic Wadi Hadramout valley, in an offensive that the group said aimed to “liberate” southern Yemen and restore economic stability (Al Jazeera). The advance has heightened tensions between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which backs rival forces in the region and dispatched officials to Hadramout, urging outside troops to withdraw (NYT).
Break in Iran-Houthi Relations
Anonymous Iranian officials told The Telegraph that Tehran’s influence over the Houthis has eroded sharply, describing the group as increasingly acting on its own; Tehran’s attempts to rein in the group, including by dispatching a senior commander to Sanaa, have so far fallen short (Telegraph). Officials also acknowledged similar difficulties controlling some Iraqi militias, reflecting broader strains within Iran’s regional proxy system (Jerusalem Post).
Gunmen Ambush Taiz Governor’s Convoy
Armed attackers shot at Governor Nabil Shamsan’s motorcade on a main route outside Taiz, leaving five security personnel dead and two injured before two of the assailants were themselves killed; no group has claimed responsibility, though clashes between the Houthis and pro-government factions continue to occur (AP).
Houthis Sentence Alleged Spies
A Houthi-affiliated court in Sanaa issued public death sentences against seventeen people accused of spying for multiple foreign intelligence services, while two others received prison terms, marking another escalation in the rebels’ crackdown on local staff linked to foreign missions (AP).
Houthi Strategy Shift
Yemen’s Houthi rebels suggested in a letter posted online that they will pause their attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea following the truce in Gaza, though they stopped short of declaring a formal end to the campaign (FT). The bombing campaign, which they declared in solidarity with Gaza, upended global shipping routes and prompted retaliatory strikes from both the Biden and Trump administrations (CFR).
Houthi Trials for Detained UN Staff
Houthi authorities say dozens of locally hired UN employees arrested after an Israeli strike that killed senior Houthi officials in August will face prosecution, despite UN denials of any involvement; the UN has consistently suggested that the detentions were arbitrary (Reuters).
Amnesty Flags U.S. Strike on Yemen Prison As Potential War Crime
Amnesty International called for an investigation into a U.S. airstrike on a Houthi-run detention facility in Saada that killed over sixty African migrants, saying there was no apparent military goal and the attack may have been indiscriminate; the strike occurred amid the Trump Administration's Operation Rough Rider campaign (AP).
More Houthi Detentions of UN Workers
Two female World Food Program employees were arrested in Sanaa amid a widening crackdown on UN officials; one of the detainees was reported in critical condition (AP).
Houthis Detain Two UN Staff Members
The arrests are part of a pattern of detentions, now totaling fifty UN staff members; the UN says the moves are forcing a reassessment of aid operations in Houthi-controlled areas, as it continues to demand the immediate release of all detained personnel (AP).
Houthis Free UN Staff
The Houthis freed five Yemeni UN staff members and authorized fifteen international employees to resume movement on UN premises after detaining them on Saturday, as regional mediators increasingly pressured Houthi leadership (AP). Meanwhile, militants from Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula attacked the headquarters of the Southern Transitional Council (STC) in the Al-Mahfad district of Abyan province using two car bombs, killing eight soldiers and injuring fifteen others; the STC said troops repelled the assault after heavy clashes, killing eight terrorists (AFP).
Airstrip Construction on Yemeni Island
Satellite imagery shows a new 2,000-meter airstrip being built on Zuqar Island in the Red Sea, likely by Emirati-linked firms; the effort is part of a broader objective amongst anti-Houthi forces to monitor smuggling and shipping routes near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait (AP). Meanwhile, a blaze aboard the Cameroonian-flagged gas tanker Falcon in the Gulf of Aden killed two crew members and left the vessel adrift; maritime authorities said the explosion was accidental, not linked to Houthi attacks, as twenty-four other crew were rescued and the ship awaits salvage (AP).
Houthis Detain UN Employees
Iranian-backed Houthi rebels detained at least twenty UN staff members, including fifteen internationals, and confiscated communications equipment during an attack on a UN facility in Sanaa, prompting calls from the organization for their immediate release (AP). The UN later announced that UNICEF’s Yemen representative, Peter Hawkins, was among the arrested, as the Houthi campaign targeting international staffers in Yemen accelerates (Guardian; AFP).
Houthi Military Chief Killed
Yemen’s Houthi rebels announced that the group’s military chief of staff, Muhammad Abdul Karim al-Ghamari, had died from injuries sustained in an Israeli strike; they did not specify the date of the attack, though Israel targeted top Houthi leaders in August (AP). The same strike killed al-Ghamari’s thirteen-year-old son (WSJ). The group has not conducted any attacks since the announcement of the Gaza ceasefire on October 10 (AP).
Houthi Statements on Gaza and Saudi Arabia
Supreme Political Council President Mahdi al-Mashat called on Saudi Arabia to de-escalate the conflict with the Houthis and fulfill peace commitments; marking the anniversary of the October 14 Revolution, which ended the British presence in Yemen, al-Mashat also reaffirmed Yemen’s intent to expand its military capabilities and warned that its forces remain ready to engage in developments tied to the Gaza conflict (Middle East Monitor).
Houthi Drone Attack
The Israeli military said its air force shot down two Houthi drones over open areas and the Egyptian border, causing no injuries or damage; the attack marked the second consecutive day of Houthi drone strikes (Anadolu Agency).
Houthi Detentions
Yemen’s Houthi rebels have detained nine United Nations employees, bringing the total number of UN workers seized in Houthi-held territory since 2021 to fifty-three, a UN spokesperson said (AP). Secretary-General António Guterres strongly condemned the detentions of UN staff and other personnel from NGOs and civil society groups, calling for their immediate release (UN).
Houthis Detain UN Staff
Nine UN employees were detained, bringing the total number of UN workers held in Houthi-controlled areas to fifty-three since 2021; the UN said the crackdown is severely impeding aid delivery and demanded the immediate release of all detained staff (AP).
Houthi Missile Targets Israel
The Israeli Military reported intercepting a missile fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebels toward central Israel and the southern West Bank, although it reported no damage or injuries; the attack represents the ninety-first Houthi ballistic missile launched at Israel since March 18 (Times of Israel).
Houthis Announce Sanctions on U.S. Oil Companies
The Houthis said that they have sanctioned thirteen U.S. oil firms, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips, along with nine executives and two vessels in retaliation for new U.S. sanctions, though analysts suggest the move likely amounts to a symbolic attempt at saving face with their supporters rather than a renewed effort to attack U.S.-linked ships (Reuters).
Houthis Attack Dutch Cargo Ship
A missile launched by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels struck a Netherlands-flagged cargo vessel, the Minervagracht, in the Gulf of Aden; the ship was targeted unsuccessfully last week and has no ties to Israel, according to the U.S.-led Joint Maritime Information Center (AP). Reports later confirmed that the attack injured two sailors and forced the crew to evacuate; the ship incurred “substantial damage,” per its owner, with the attack being one of the largest yet in the Gulf of Aden (Times of Israel).
Israel Intercepts Missile From Yemen
The missile was launched towards southern Israel and prompted sirens in the central part of the country; the attack follows a continuing tit-for-tat that has involved airstrikes on Houthi-controlled Sanaa and a drone attack on Eilat earlier this week (Reuters).
Israel Strikes Sanaa After Houthi Drone Attack
Israeli jets bombed sites in Yemen’s capital, killing at least two and injuring forty-eight, a day after a Houthi drone hit the Israeli city of Eilat and wounded twenty people; Israel’s defense minister said the strikes targeted Houthi military infrastructure, while witnesses reported a residential building was among those hit (NYT).
Yemeni President: Threat From Houthis Endangers Broader Region
At the Council on Foreign Relations, President Rashad al-Alimi warned that while the Trump administration’s redesignation of the Houthis as a terrorist group was “historic,” it will be challenging to reach a peaceful solution “unless there are international and regional circumstances that can bring some pressure to bear;” he called on the United States to provide Yemen with more economic support and added that Washington could lead an international alliance that aims to “eliminate the Houthi terrorist group”(CFR). The group currently controls part of the country, though Alimi is internationally recognized as Yemen’s leader (Al Jazeera).
Suspected Houthi Strike Hits Ship Off Yemeni Coast
A suspected Houthi attack targeted a vessel sailing in the Gulf of Aden, though its crew was unharmed and it continued to its next port, per the UK Maritime Trade Operations center; the Houthis have not yet claimed the strike, but they have repeatedly targeted Red Sea shipping (AP).
U.S. Counterterrorism Center Warns of al Qaeda Threat
The U.S. National Counterterrorism Center warned that al Qaeda and its Yemen-based affiliate, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), are seeking to inspire attacks against the United States through media outreach related to global conflicts; the alert demonstrates the group’s continued threat twenty-four years after September 11, 2001 (Reuters).
Suspected Houthi Drone Crashes in Israeli City of Eilat
An Israeli military statement said a drone launched “from the east” crashed in Eilat, causing damage but no casualties; the incident follows a twin wave of Israeli strikes on Yemen’s Hodeidah port as well as Sanaa and al-Jawf (Al Jazeera/Reuters).
Israel Strikes Houthis at Yemeni Port
Israel said it targeted Houthi military infrastructure at Hodeida port, while the rebels claimed their air defenses forced Israeli aircraft to retreat; meanwhile, hundreds attended funerals for thirty-one local journalists reportedly killed in earlier Israeli strikes (AP).
Israel Strikes Yemen
Israel said it attacked Houthi targets across Yemen in strikes that Yemen’s Houthi-run health ministry said killed thirty-five people; the attack followed a Houthi missile launch that damaged an airport in southern Israel on Sunday (NYT).
Houthi Attack in Israel
A Houthi drone evaded Israeli air defenses and hit a terminal at Ramon Airport in southern Israel; a man was injured by shrapnel from the explosion (Times of Israel). The military said the drone was not classified as a threat due to human error (IDF). The strike follows an Israeli attack in Yemen late last month that killed several senior Houthi officials (AP).