Council of Councils
Think Global Health
The United States is reducing its efforts to prevent war and violence, while the level of armed conflict around the world and the risk to the United States continue to increase, argues the annual Preventive Priorities Survey produced by the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). This year, over six hundred American foreign policy experts deemed five conflict-related scenarios as highly likely to emerge or escalate and to have high impact on U.S. interests in 2026.
Experts are most concerned about conflict-related risks in the Middle East and eastern Europe, including the potential for increased clashes between Israeli security forces and Palestinians in the West Bank, renewed fighting in the Gaza Strip, and intensified attacks in the Russia-Ukraine war. The possibility of direct U.S. military strikes in Venezuela and of an increase in political violence and popular unrest in the United States are similarly worrying scenarios.
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Experts further warn of renewed armed conflict between Iran and Israel; a disruptive, artificial intelligence–enabled cyberattack on U.S. infrastructure; and a cross-strait crisis between China and Taiwan.
“Over the course of nearly two decades, CFR’s Preventive Priorities Survey has become a timely and trustworthy tool for leading policymakers to gauge and triage global conflict risks,” said CFR President Michael Froman. “Amid an increasingly fragmented and complex international security environment, the insights in this year’s survey are as critical as ever.”
Unlike other forecasting tools, the Preventive Priorities Survey aims to help U.S. policymakers prioritize competing conflict prevention and crisis mitigation demands. Conducted by CFR’s Center for Preventive Action (CPA) every November, the survey asks foreign policy experts to evaluate thirty ongoing or potential violent conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring or escalating next year, as well as their possible impact on U.S. interests. And, for the first time, this year’s survey asks experts to identify opportunities for conflict prevention and remediation.
Two categories of opportunities emerged. The first includes conflicts where the United States can use its influence to mitigate conflict, such as in the Russia-Ukraine war and fighting between Hamas militants and Israeli security forces. The second includes conflicts where the United States can increase its support for international efforts toward peace, such as the civil war in Sudan and sectarian violence and a resurgence of ISIS in Syria.
“The world continues to grow more violent and disorderly. Last year’s unprecedented level of anxiety among experts about the rising risk of conflict remains undiminished,” said Paul B. Stares, CPA director and General John W. Vessey senior fellow for conflict prevention. “The United States can and should do much more to promote peace and stability internationally.”
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Read the full results and view prior surveys.
Listen to the latest podcast episode of Why It Matters for more from Stares about the top concerns experts see on the horizon.
To learn more or to request an interview, please contact the Global Communications team at [email protected].
The Preventive Priorities Survey was made possible by a generous grant from the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
CFR’s Center for Preventive Action seeks to help prevent, defuse, or resolve deadly conflicts around the world and to expand the body of knowledge on conflict prevention.