Ramadan Cease-Fire Prospects, Portugal’s Snap Election, Oscars Go International, and More

MCMAHON:
In the coming week, negotiators push for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war before Ramadan. Portugal holds snap elections that might see a change in power. And, the ninety-sixth Oscars shine up brighter light on international films. It's March 7th, 2024 in time for The World Next Week. I'm Bob McMahon.

ROBBINS:
And I'm Carla Anne Robbins. So Bob, let's start once again In the Middle East. This Sunday, March 10th, marks the start of Ramadan, the most sacred month in Islam and negotiators working in Cairo, Egypt had hoped to secure a limited ceasefire deal and hostage release before Ramadan and head off a threatened Israeli ground assault on Rafah. So this morning the Hamas delegation left Cairo, but they're saying that talks are going to continue next week. Israel noticeably has not been at the table and with the horrors and Gaza getting worse by the day and international pressure on Israel mounting, what are the chances for a deal?

MCMAHON:
Well, there's still chances as you say, there are signals that talks could resume. By some reports, it could be resuming on Sunday involving some of the people involved so far, which is members of the Qatari government in Egypt and Hamas officials, but not directly Israelis, although they are continuing to also indicate this could still be something in the offing, but the signs are not great. Israeli officials have continued to say that Hamas is sort of playing a game. It's not meeting their demand of providing a list of surviving Israeli hostages and that it would not be sending a delegation until a list is sent. Hamas for its part, Hamas officials have been saying they can't really know who is alive among the hostages, who are estimated about 130, because of among other things, Israel's continued bombing. Some other people watching the scene say Hamas just might not know at all. So that's something to be sorted out, certainly. Israeli officials have said, by the way, that at least thirty of the hostages are believed to be dead.

And what's supposed to happen is a six-week pause. This is what's been discussed, which would be significant and in significant also occurring during the month of Ramadan. This would be a six-week pause in fighting, and during that time, crucially needed humanitarian assistance to Gaza would be increased. There would also be some Palestinian prisoners in Israel released, in exchange for release of some of the hostages held in Gaza. President Biden said a couple of days ago that, "There's got to be a ceasefire if we get to circumstances that it continues to Ramadan." He said, "It's going to be very dangerous. So we are trying very, very hard to get a ceasefire." You have the major power broker, certainly a major power broker vis-a-vis Israel pushing for this. So that gives it a chance. But still Israel has defied Biden administration efforts to pause or slow things down and to ease the humanitarian situation in the past, intent on eradicating Hamas once and for all. That remains the avowed goal.

As we were recording this podcast, we're at about the five month mark of this really brutal war. The toll on Palestinians is thirty thousand plus according to health officials, run through Hamas, but that figure has not really been challenged in a major way. Something like seventy thousand injured and wounded. And again, let's also note this all started on October 7th when Hamas attacking Israel and killing upwards of 1,200 people and the worst attack on Jewish people since the Holocaust, has been pointed out, which is why one of the things that's driving this campaign to eradicate Hamas. All of which is to say there's a chance, Carla, but it's looking pretty grim. And if we go into a Ramadan period without a ceasefire, that also can light a different kind of fuse of concern among Palestinians.

ROBBINS:
So pressure mounting from Washington and potentially some sort of split in this war cabinet, which Netanyahu was very dependent on. Benny Gantz, chairman of the National Unity party, had joined part of this five man war cabinet. He suddenly shows up in Washington and meets with the vice president. After the vice president came out and said, took a position, I don't think there was any split between Biden and Harris; I think she's sort of the leading edge right now, she called for an immediate ceasefire. It's like different in language there. And Gantz shows up and reports said that Netanyahu told him not to go, and even had reached out to the Israeli embassy in Washington said, "Don't even facilitate the trip." Does that split have any impact on Netanyahu's willingness to negotiate or is Netanyahu in so deep at this point that nothing's going to change his behavior?

MCMAHON:
That is a really good question. I mean, that is the other variable in this. While it has been clear that this war cabinet, and this kind of rallying among Israelis against Hamas has been a real thing, and polls continue to show Israelis want to see Hamas eliminated and destroyed after what happened on October 7th. Still in all, there is a division that exists, certainly between Gantz and Netanyahu and between different parts of the Israeli political establishment and the far-right members of the cabinet as well. I mean, Netanyahu himself by the way had to step in and announce earlier this week that Israel will allow the same number of worshipers as in previous years at the holiest Muslim site, the al-Aqsa in Jerusalem. So that was something that had been, you know, the restrictions had been threatened by some members of his cabinet. So there's that element as well going on.

I should also note, just as an aside Carla, that there's some reporting that there also are some splits within the Hamas leadership. The political leadership based in Qatar and the military leadership that's still in Gaza about how tough a bargain to drive for this ceasefire, with the Qatari-based officials trying to provide, let's say a little bit more of a sense of compromise in what their conditions are for a ceasefire.

So these are the things that make this incredibly difficult, but again, the basic contours have been there for a while and there's still a sense of some hope that with this firm deadline looming of the start of Ramadan as well as the ongoing Israeli threat of action on March 10th in Rafah against Hamas, that there's a sense that that deadline pressure could be firmer in driving negotiators to some sort of a deal.

ROBBINS:
So Bob, let's take our conversation to Portugal, which is holding a snap parliamentary election on Sunday. This comes months after a corruption investigation led to the collapse of the socialist government and the resignation of Prime Minister António Costa last November. Two moderate parties; the Socialist Party and the Social Democrat Party seem to be the top players, but there's mounting support for right-wing populist group called Chega, which means, "Enough". We've seen a drift to far-right parties in the EU. Is that going to happen in Portugal and what are they going to change if Chega takes power?

MCMAHON:
Well, you touched on the thing here, the crucial thing here, the, "So what?" And Portugal had not been among the countries that had raised concern in Europe over a populist, and some would say extremist shift and policies. It had been one of the remaining bastions for socialists in power until the inquiry that Costa got wrapped up in, his party certainly did, and resulted in him resigning. By the way, he has continued to say he is innocent of any charges of corruption, but it was enough of a blow that it resulted in his fall. He's been in caretaker mode. His party is polling second behind the center-right Social Democrat Party and that's led by Luis Montenegro and that party has vowed up to now that it will not go into government with the Chega party that you mentioned, which is the more hard-line right party.

And again, we've seen this play out over and over again in various countries in Europe. There is a more center-right party that tends to emerge, and then there is a party on its fringe that is ascendant. And the question is whether the center-right and more moderate party will go into business with the fringe and basically cave in on some crucial issues. Again, Montenegro said he will not do this. André Ventura is the head of the Chega party. He's a former television sports commentator, he's gotten a lot of attention. His party is surged in the polls as have other far-right parties we've seen 'cross Europe. And the concern is that the numbers will be so compelling that the Social Democrat Party, which is the center-right one will feel compelled to go into government with them. But again, there is some math depending on how voters turn out that you could see the cobbling together of a right of center coalition that does not include Chega. We'll have to see what kind of mood the voters are in. 

And this gets to the other question, which is all is not well in the sunny garden spot of Portugal in terms of how Portuguese are regarding things. Now that flies in the face of, certainly the popularity of Portugal. I mean, it is the darling country of expats seeking to settle for a better life with cheap food and living conditions, but that's coming at a cost as well. This is a country that has a major housing problem, and I think whoever is voting at the power is going to have to sort of deal with that. Deal with low wages, pension levels are seen as far too low, especially in the face of inflation. 

There is also an upcoming big anniversary in the country that is going to also fix minds on just sort of what direction Portugal is in. The fiftieth anniversary of what's called the Carnation Revolution when they swept away a right-wing dictatorship and brought in a more democratic system of government. So there's symbolically important days ahead for Portugal. This election is going to be another defining moment for a European country. It's a country of ten million that had been, again, this island of calm, but it's going to have to sort of step up and its voters are going to have to decide what kind of path they see towards getting out of some of their problems.

Well, Carla, let's take ourselves into the land of make-believe or quasi-make-believe as the case may be, or documentaries even. All of them are dealt with in the coming weekend, because it of course is the weekend of the Academy Awards. And by, weekend I mean there's all sorts of fetes, and parties, and speculation, and so forth going on before the red carpet rolls out, and we see the awards presented in sunny LA. There is an incredible slew of international feature films this year, some in the category designated for international feature films and some that are competing in the broader Best Film category as well, as well as themes that resonate internationally. Carla, I know you follow films closely. You are on the cutting edge of what's new and what we need to know about. You were at calling Oppenheimer a big deal months before it came out and it's still a big deal. So what kind of conversations do you think will be sparked by this year's foreign feature films?

ROBBINS:
So first, Bob, if you haven't seen the new Yorker cover this week, it's got this great Barry Blitt cover and it's got Barbie slapping Oppenheimer across the face.

MCMAHON:
That's great, that's great.

ROBBINS:
So we'll have to see how that face-off takes place there. And you're right, it's really interesting to note that not all of the internationally made films are competing for awards in the International Feature Film category, there are three nominated in the Best Picture category and that's the largest number ever. And that's really quite a change in a very short period of time when you consider the Parasite was the first foreign film to win the best picture, and that was only four years ago in 2020.

So we'll start by talking about the three that made it to the show to the main stage this year. One is Anatomy of a Fall, and that's a French courtroom drama that weighs from different perspectives, the question of whether is successful, if rather unsympathetic novelist is responsible for the death of her husband who falls from their alpine chalet roof and it won the Palme d'Or in Cannes and it's female director Justine Triet has also been nominated in the Best Director category.

Then there's The Zone of Interest and there's a lot of buzz around this one, although probably not in this category. It's both in Best Picture and in the Foreign Film category. And also the director Jonathan Glaser has been nominated in the director category and that tells the story of the really ordinary home life of a monster, Rudolf Haas who's the commandant of Auschwitz, who lived with his wife—and it's based somewhat on a true story—and his five children, a house was a garden just beyond but in full sight of the barbed wire fence of the camp. And if you've even seen the trailers, it looks just incredibly creepy.

And the third foreign best picture is Celine Song's Past Lives. And this is a gentle, almost love story that plays out in both Korean and English. And it's the story of Nora and Hae Sung who meet as children in Seoul and they never really get over each other despite marriages, and decades, and thousands of miles of separation with Nora's family emigrating to Canada and Hae Sung making a life in South Korea.

So those are the ones that make it to the big stage. And then there are the movies nominated in the Best International Feature Film category, what used to be called the Best Foreign Language Film, and someone decided that sounded too insular, although the rules still require the movie to contain mainly non-English dialogue. So in addition to The Zone of Interest, which is a UK-Polish production, Spain's submission, Society of the Snow, and that one is streaming on Netflix, so lots of people have already seen it, tells the story of the Uruguayan rugby team, Montevideo's Old Christians that survived a plane crash in the Andes in '72, that's based on a true story by eating the corpses of their dead teammates and fellow passengers. You've probably seen that image of them with a stack of ribs, which is actually taken from a real photo. I'm going to avoid that one.

Then there's Perfect Days, which is Japan's submission, and that's directed by Germany's Wim Wenders, who did Paris, Texas and a whole lot of really great other movies. And this tells the story of a Japanese man who has found a truly fulfilling life maintaining public restrooms. It's supposedly of quite a simple but lovely tale.

Italy's entry, Il Capitano, which is filmed in French and Wolof tells the harrowing tale of two teenage musicians from Senegal who set off seeking their fortune in Europe, thinks it's going to be really fabulous and then just falls prey to the worst of migration.

And Germany's nominee The Teacher's Lounge utterly fascinating and utterly nerve-wracking. It's, a Turkish German child is accused of committing a series of petty thefts from the teacher's lounge in a supposedly right-minded, progressive German school. The student is cleared, but a new teacher is outraged by the administration's restful judgment, and then she does something that drives Germans completely nuts; she secretly films her colleagues. And you know how obsessed with privacy Germans can be and all ...you know what breaks loose there.

So there's just lots of really interesting diverse films there. I don't know what the betting is other than the fact that the betting is that the UK-Polish film, The Zone of Interest is the betting in the international film. And I will tell you, that said, that the New York Times utterly loathed it and the Times critic said that Jonathan Glazer has made a "hollow self-aggrandizing art film exercise set in Auschwitz during the Holocaust." That said, I watched every trailer on YouTube last night for this, and I am definitely going to go and see it because it creeped the hell out of me.

MCMAHON:
Yeah, I'm going to see that as well and maybe the first one I see. As always, I want to see all of them. I surprise myself, and the only one I have seen so far is Society of the Snow, and I would've thought the subject matter is just something I could have skipped, but had read an interesting review of it and it's actually, once you get beyond the obvious, very disturbing subject matter, it's really well done and very thought-provoking, and so, hats off to the crew that made that movie.

ROBBINS:
I gather there's a whole sort of religious sacrament thing running through it and all of that.

MCMAHON:
There is, it's not overdone. It makes sense in the context of who these people were, who these players were, and where they came from and what they were dealing with. So I didn't find it to be too disturbing, but I just found it, obviously being very familiar with the story and horrified when the story first came out years ago, it just gave me a new sense of perspective on it. And didn't try to come up with too much overt moralizing either, about sort of them being the wrenching experience they went through, like afterwards. It doesn't have one of these scenes at the end of the movie what all the survivors did with their lives as you were accustomed to seeing in an American movie, but it leaves you to your imagination what kind of lives they might've had afterwards. So again, it's interesting in and of itself, and they handled the subject matter, I thought, in a very straightforward, interesting way.

But as always with these foreign movies, I love the fact that you have some that are just sort of set piece, sort of take small situations and sort of create a full length film about them and don't have to be the epic blockbuster that we're used to in the U.S. Although I thought it was a great year for blockbusters in the U.S. with, obviously we talked at length about the Barbenheimer phenomenon, but also Killers of the Flower Moon and a number of other big pictures.

Documentaries; I think the documentary on Mariupol, the AP, with the AP crew filmed there. I'm interested to see how that does and kind of attention that brings. So I think it's going to be really, especially fascinating Oscars this year.

ROBBINS:
And then of course there's Barbie whacking Oppenheimer's face.

MCMAHON:
Correct. That will be, right, let's see what the reports are Monday morning on who came out from that fray. But Barbie's going to be feisty.

ROBBINS:
As she should be, and one of the great speeches, so we'll see what happens with America Ferrera in that. So lots to watch there.

MCMAHON:
And we will post the feature films to our show notes page as we have done in the past, I believe for those interested in pursuing further.

Well Carla, from film to the audience figure of the week. This is the figure that listeners vote on every Tuesday and Wednesday at CFR_orgs Instagram story. This week the figure was China's Xi, as in Xi Jinping, and the full sentence was, "China's Xi Ends Annual Press Conference." So what was the significance of this press conference, Carla?

ROBBINS:
So who would've thought China could get even more opaque and even more authoritarian? For more than three decades, China's premier, and that's the number two in the hierarchy, has held a press conference once a year at the end of the annual meeting of the National People's Congress, their pro-forma legislature. And then on Monday, the Xi government announced that the Premier's news conference was not going to be held and within hours, even the word, "news conference" had been scrubbed off of the social media platform Weibo. Now, these were never Western-style news scrums, the sort of things you and I are really used to, Bob, but they were watched really closely by foreign analysts and Chinese citizens for hints of shifts in policy and signs of who's up, who's down, who might be dragged out of the next Congress meeting. And all of this is seen as a further clampdown in the Xi Jinping era.

This is a government that's been especially hostile to foreign reporters harassing people, expelling them, denying visas. And some people were reading this as that the current Premier Li Qiang may not have wanted to answer any questions about China's economy. We had talked a few weeks back about the trouble that they're having. Li announced on Tuesday that China was going to set a target of growth of 5 percent for 2024, but most experts consider that to be overly ambitious and if anything could even weaken investor confidence, China's youth unemployment rate is about 15 percent, the real estate industry as we know, is really in trouble, so maybe didn't want to answer any questions. Other people suggest that the simplest explanation is that there's only one top voice and only one face for China, and that is Xi, and that this premier who has been with Xi for a long time as his number two in lots of different roles, knows it, and he didn't want to put himself out front. 

That said, this does come with a caveat; today, after the cancellation got an enormous amount of press in the United States and in other countries, China's foreign minister and senior diplomat, Wang Yi, did give a press conference in which he heralded ties and trade with Russia and warned that if the U.S. is obsessed with suppressing China, it will eventually harm itself. So there was a press conference, it just wasn't the premier's press conference.

MCMAHON:
Yeah, I think they would rather shine attention outside of the country on external affairs and not on the somewhat messy developments happening domestically. It is interesting to contrast, you mentioned Russia, contrasting the recent state of the nation address and session that Vladimir Putin had, where he kind of went out and went on, which was only a little while after his infamous interview with Tucker Carlson, where he's basically sort of citing Russian prerogatives in Ukraine and that it's on the advance, it's in the right and so forth, and as well as deflecting criticism and attention onto the West at the same time. Xi would prefer just to not have to deal with questions at all, and so just kind of shunned it. The interesting style difference between the two leaders who are otherwise part of this incredible partnership that they keep touting.

ROBBINS:
And absolutely unrepentant about the whole thing, in fact, becoming less repentant as time itself goes by. I think more than anything else about this cancellation is that they've been doing it for thirty years and the decision to not do it sends really major message, "We don't have to explain what we do."

MCMAHON:
And as some China watches would say, it's a part of the ongoing, incredible show of control and power that Xi has, but also insecurity and we'll have to see whether that comes back to become a problem for him.

Well, Carla, that's our look at The World Next Week. Here are some other stories to keep an eye on. Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban meets with former President Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago. Ghana hosts the thirteenth African Games. And, U.S. President Joe Biden meets Polish President Duda and Prime Minister Tusk at the White House.

ROBBINS:
Two guys who don't get along very well. I don't mean Biden, I mean Duda and-

MCMAHON:
Yeah, that's kind of interesting combo, yeah.

ROBBINS:
So, are they going to be shuttling between rooms or in the same room? We'll have to watch for that.

So please subscribe to The World Next Week on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts, and leave us a review while you're at it, we appreciate the feedback. If you'd like to reach out, please email us at [email protected]. The publications mentioned in this episode, as well as the transcript of our conversation are listed on the podcast page for The World Next Week on CFR.org. Please note that opinions expressed on The World Next Week as well as movie reviews are solely those of the host, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

MCMAHON:
Or movies.

ROBBINS:
Today's program was produced by Ester Fang and Sinet Adous, with Director of Podcasting Gabrielle Sierra. Special thanks to our intern who comes from the land of movies, Olivia Green, for her research assistance. Our theme music is provided by Markus Zakaria, and this is Carla Robbins saying so long and great watching,

MCMAHON:
And this is Bob McMahon saying goodbye and be careful out there.