While the Twitter war between Uganda and Kenya may be entertaining, the implications of a succession crisis in Uganda are serious.

The harrowing story of Kakwenza Rukirabashaija—a Ugandan writer whose tweets critical of President Yoweri Museveni and his powerful son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, landed him in detention—has made it impossible to pretend that the repression and political violence that accompanied the 2021 election cycle were temporary features of Uganda’s political landscape.

In late October and again in November, Uganda was the target of terrorist attacks perpetrated by the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a group based in the Democratic Republic of Congo and linked to the self-proclaimed Islamic State. In response, Uganda has deployed a significant number of troops to eastern Congo.

On January 14, Uganda will hold national elections, an exercise that is shaping up to be more of an opportunity for the incumbent, President Yoweri Museveni, to demonstrate the repressive power of the state

Recently, Ugandan civil society organizations warned about the likelihood of increasing political violence leading up to the country’s 2021 general elections. Disturbing incidents of opposition figures like Bobi Wine being arrested and beaten, journalists being punished for covering those who challenge the state, and people associated with the new political opposition, like Michael Kalinda, being abducted, tortured, and even killed certainly support the case for sounding the alarm.