China-Russia Relations: January 2025

Artificial Intelligence: In a Kremlin report from December 30, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the Russian government and joint-stock company Sberbank to collaborate with China on “technological research and development in the field of artificial intelligence” and potentially publish an international journal covering their findings. On January 9, Voice of America reported that the president of the Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Research Institute also stated that China planned to increase its cooperation with Sberbank. Currently, Russia is falling months behind China and the United States “on a range of parameters,” according to the first deputy CEO of Sberbank, in part due to Western sanctions. For example, says CNN, in mid-January, Biden announced that China and Russia “will be newly subject to restrictions on the sale of the most powerful ‘closed’ artificial intelligence (AI) models.” Russia has reason to be concerned: AI technology can be used in conventional warfare, including for autonomous weapon development. In return for help with AI technology, China will likely want access to submarine and helicopter technology as well as military data.

Railways: On January 9, Voice of America reported an upcoming increase in railway cooperation between China and Central Asia. In July, China plans to begin developing the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway. Russia and Kazakhstan have long pushed back on such a plan, but China wants to establish alternative rail routes and continue to increase its influence in the region.

Trade: China-Russia imports and exports reached a record high of $237 billion in 2024, according to Chinese customs data. However, overall yuan-denominated trade value only increased by 2.9 percent since 2023, far less than the 32.7 percent growth between 2022 and 2023. Similarly, Chinese exports to Russia grew by 5 percent (in yuan terms) and imports from Russia increased by 1 percent, both of which are well under the 53.9 and 18.6 percent, respectively, reported the year before. The total two-way trade value between the two countries amounted to $244.8 billion in 2024, up from $240.1 billion in 2023. 

China’s import of Russian coal is changing, according to Bloomberg. China has been increasingly sourcing coal from Australia and Mongolia as Russian coal becomes too expensive. If U.S. sanctions on Russia increase, that shift is likely to continue. Imports of Russian crude oil, however, have reached a record high, with 108.5 million metric tons imported annually. Nevertheless, China (as well as India) is looking for alternatives as the United States imposes new sanctions on Russian oil producers and tankers. For example, the U.S. Treasury recently announced further sanctions on Russian producers such as Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz and over 180 vessels in Russia’s “shadow fleet.” 

China-Russia Dialogue: The day after U.S. President Donald Trump’s inauguration, Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks to reaffirm their partnership. According to the Kremlin, Xi asserted that he is “ready . . . to elevate Chinese-Russian relations to a new level.” Putin said the two countries “stand united in advocating for a more just multipolar world order” and “objectively play a major stabilising role in international affairs.” They both referred to each other as a “dear friend.”

Chinese Espionage: Despite those demonstrations of closeness, Taiwanese cyber security firm TeamT5 told Politico that certain Chinese cyber organizations such as Mustang Panda and Tonto Team have been spying on Russian “aerospace and defense firms.” The cyber espionage they described involved stealing confidential information on Russia’s weapons program, including nuclear submarines. So far, the Kremlin has not issued a response. Other intelligence services do not seem to be confirming the report.

In Ukraine

China Statement on Ukraine War: On January 16, in his remarks at the UN Security Council Briefing on Ukraine, Chinese Ambassador Geng Shuang called for all involved in the Ukraine war to follow the following principles: “no expansion of the battlefield, no escalation of the fighting, and no provocation by any party.” He spoke of China’s shuttle diplomacy and the development of the Friends for Peace coalition, which includes Brazil and some Global South countries. He claimed that China has not provided Russia with military technology, adding that, had it done so, “the situation on the battleground would not have been where it is now.” He repeated China’s frequent criticism of the United States and the accusation that it was using the war to increase its power on the global stage.

The United States and the China-Russia Alliance: In a Financial Times article published on January 3, former U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was quoted as saying that China appears to be trying to “have it both ways” in its approach to the Ukraine war. He noted how Chinese companies continue to provide Russia with “critical materiel to help it rebuild its defence industry base,” while advocating for peace. Blinken did, however, say that China could have played a role in nuclear de-escalation in its conversations with the Kremlin.

At the World Economic Forum on January 23, Trump voiced optimism that China could help resolve the Ukraine war, saying “hopefully, China can help us stop the war with, in particular, Russia-Ukraine. And they have a great deal of power over that situation, and we’ll work with them.” Trump also spoke of past conversations with Putin about denuclearization and noted that China could join the effort.