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Top of the Agenda
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Twenty-six countries pledged postwar security guarantees to Ukraine yesterday during a Paris meeting. These would include support on land, sea, and air, French President Emmanuel Macron said. European leaders also met with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and held a call with President Donald Trump regarding efforts to end the war. The announcement came amid reports that the United States plans to reduce some financial backing for European armies along Russia’s border.
The latest.
- France and the United Kingdom (UK) have suggested that they could deploy troops to Ukraine following a peace deal, while Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said that Italy would not do so.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin said today that any foreign military troops deployed to Ukraine before the end of the war would be considered targets—and if there were a peace agreement, he saw “no point” in their presence.
- The Financial Times reported yesterday that Pentagon officials told European diplomats the United States would phase out security assistance for armies on Russia’s border. Previously approved funds are due to expire in 2026.
What comes next.
- Now that Europe’s so-called coalition of the willing have outlined their security pledges for Ukraine, Trump is evaluating the prospective U.S. role in Ukraine’s postwar security architecture.
- Germany said that it would decide on the extent of its potential military support for Ukraine when the U.S. involvement in security guarantees was clear.
- Europe will increase sanctions on Russia “if the Russian side continues to play for time,” a German government spokesperson said yesterday.
“It is too soon to conclude that the recent flurry of diplomacy has been in vain. At a minimum, it has initiated a negotiating process and focused minds in Europe and Ukraine on the tough compromises that will have to be made to resolve the conflict.”
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—CFR Distinguished Fellow Thomas Graham in an Expert Brief
Across the Globe
Thailand’s new PM. Lawmakers elected Anutin Charnvirakul prime minister today, weeks after his Bhumjaithai Party broke from the ruling coalition in the wake of a scandal that brought down the former premier. Longtime Thai political heavyweight Thaksin Shinawatra, father of ousted prime minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, left the country yesterday. Charnvirakul earned the support of the progressive opposition People’s Party in his leadership vote by pledging to amend the constitution and hold an election within four months.
U.S.-Taiwan meeting. Defense officials from the United States and Taiwan met secretly last week in Alaska, unnamed sources told the Financial Times. The Pentagon and Taipei declined to comment. Washington had previously canceled a higher-level meeting that was planned for June; the White House told Taipei at the time the cancellation was related to its strikes on Iran, but it also came as Washington and Beijing carried out trade talks.
Health policy hearing. U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. cast doubt on the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines and pandemic-era masking and lockdowns at a Senate hearing yesterday. Republicans as well as Democrats questioned Kennedy about his move to narrow COVID-19 vaccine eligibility. The hearing underscored concerns about changes in U.S. policy on vaccines.
Fed confirmation interview. Stephen Miran, Trump’s nominee to fill a four-month vacancy on the Federal Reserve, said at his confirmation hearing yesterday that he would hold the Fed’s independence as “paramount” if confirmed. Miran currently chairs Trump’s Council of Economic Advisors and said he planned to retain that role, though take a leave of absence. His nomination triggered worries about a potential conflict of interest at a time when the White House has urged the Fed to lower interest rates.
Changing soybean trade. China has been boycotting purchases of U.S. soybeans since late May of this year as part of the broader trade war. Last year, 21 percent of its imported soybeans came from the United States; this year, the country has looked to other suppliers such as Brazil. The shift prompted U.S. soybean farmers to write to Trump last month calling for a trade deal with China and commitments for China to purchase soybeans.
Algeria-Mali drone suit. Mali filed a lawsuit against Algeria at the International Court of Justice yesterday, accusing Algeria of shooting down a Malian military drone to protect armed groups. Mali said Algeria had not provided evidence for its claim that the drone violated Algerian airspace.
Israel’s advance in Gaza City. The Israeli military said yesterday that it now controls 40 percent of Gaza’s main population center and plans to expand its military offensive there in the coming days. Israeli attacks killed at least fifty-three people across Gaza yesterday, Gaza health authorities said. Israel has told civilians to leave Gaza City, but many have stayed put in fear that there is no safe place to go.
Election in Samoa. The incumbent FAST party won a national election in the Pacific Island country. However, the country will have a new prime minister in Laaulialemalietoa Leuatea Schmidt; former Prime Minister Fiamē Naomi Mata'afa left FAST before the election and created the Samoa Uniting Party, which only won three of the fifty contested legislative seats.
What’s Next
- Today, European Council President António Costa visits the Czech Republic.
- Sunday, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni begins a visit to Japan.
- Sunday, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. begins a trip to Cambodia.