U.S. Continues Economic and Diplomatic Pressure on Iran

Welcome to the Daily News Brief, CFR’s flagship morning newsletter summarizing the top global news and analysis of the day. 

Top of the Agenda

Pakistan said today it expects to host another round of U.S.-Iran peace talks, while the latest U.S. financial pressure on Iran sparked tensions with China. With only a few days left in the current ceasefire, Washington is maintaining a naval blockade on Iranian exports as well as fresh sanctions that it is threatening to expand. U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Caine told reporters this morning that U.S. forces will “actively pursue” ships worldwide that are attempting to provide “material support” to Iran. The United States warned two Chinese banks they were at risk of sanctions for activity related to Iran, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said yesterday. 

No date has been announced for an additional round of U.S.-Iran talks, while Lebanon’s fate also hinges on diplomatic efforts. U.S. President Donald Trump wrote on social media that the leaders of Israel and Lebanon are expected to speak directly today for the first time in decades, after the Israeli cabinet met last night to discuss a possible ceasefire in Lebanon. 

The diplomatic front. As part of Islamabad’s mediation efforts between the United States and Iran, Pakistani army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir is meeting with Iranian officials in Tehran today while Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif holds meetings in Qatar. One of several outstanding issues between the warring sides remains Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The Kremlin said yesterday it offered to store Iran’s enriched uranium as part of a potential deal but the United States declined. Meanwhile, a potential call between Israel and Lebanon’s leaders would follow the countries’ commitment earlier this week to pursue peace talks. 

The economic front. Bessent said yesterday that the United States was carrying out “the financial equivalent” of a military campaign against Iran. Weeks ahead of Trump’s scheduled visit to Beijing, China has criticized both the U.S. naval blockade on exports from Iran—one of its major oil suppliers—and what it called the U.S. threat of “illegal” sanctions. Yet Trump claimed in a social media post yesterday that China was “happy” about his efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and had agreed not to send arms to Iran, an implicit acknowledgement of Beijing’s longstanding military relationship with Tehran. The Chinese embassy in Washington declined to comment on Trump’s post and said Beijing was “objective and impartial” regarding the war.

“There are disadvantages for both sides in going back to actual fighting, and it’s notable that the talks failed, but neither [the United States] nor the Iranian side went back to war. I think it shows you that both sides would like this war to be over.”

—CFR Senior Fellow Elliott Abrams tells The President’s Inbox

Across the Globe

Trump’s threats against Powell. Trump told Fox Business in an interview that aired yesterday that he plans to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell if he does not leave his post “on time.” Powell’s term expires May 15, but he has said he plans to stay on until his successor is confirmed and remain part of the bank board until a Justice Department probe into the bank concludes. A federal judge ruled last month the probe lacked evidence. 

Russian attacks in Ukraine. Russian missile and drone attacks across Ukraine overnight and early this morning killed at least seventeen people, Ukrainian officials said. It was one of the largest such attacks this year. The strikes hit sites including an office building and an apartment. Peace negotiations have been on hold since February, when the Iran war began.

Japan’s aid to Asia. Tokyo will provide around $10 billion in financial support to Southeast Asian neighbors struggling with rising oil prices, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae said yesterday at a regional forum. She called Japan and its neighbors “mutually dependent,” highlighting Tokyo’s reliance on them for products like medical supplies. The aid will be dispersed through Japanese financial institutions rather than a release of Japanese petroleum reserves. 

Iran’s World Cup participation. Iran will participate in the upcoming World Cup in North America “for sure,” FIFA President Gianni Infantino said yesterday. Trump suggested last month that Iran’s participation could risk its players’ safety due to the war. Iran explored the possibility of boycotting participation within the United States and moving its games to Mexico, but Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said last week tournament officials had rejected that request. “Sports should be outside of politics,” Infantino said. 

EU floats policy change on mergers. The European Union (EU) has outlined plans for the largest loosening of restrictions on corporate mergers in decades, according to draft rules seen by the Financial Times. The measure is part a bid to make European companies more competitive—specifically against U.S. and Chinese firms—on the world stage. The European Commission declined to comment.

School shootings in Turkey. Nine people as well as a gunman were killed yesterday in Turkey’s second school shooting in two days. Both incidents occurred in southeast Turkey. The first shooting on Monday left sixteen people wounded before the assailant shot himself at the scene. School shootings are rare in the country.

Jordan-UAE railway deal. Jordan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) committed yesterday to advancing a $2.3 billion railroad investment deal. The agreement signed in Abu Dhabi creates a joint Emirati-Jordanian company to connect Jordan’s Port of Aqaba to its phosphate and potash mines. More broadly, the project aims to better connect Jordan to its neighboring Arab countries. 

Peru’s ongoing vote count. With 90 percent of votes counted from the first round of Sunday’s presidential election, left-wing candidate Roberto Sánchez narrowly moved ahead of right-wing rival Rafael López Aliaga yesterday in the race for the second-place spot. Whoever secures the slot will advance to a runoff against the frontrunner, right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori.

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