China in the Indo-Pacific: December 2025
In December, China increased military activity in the South China Sea and around Taiwan while simultaneously advancing diplomatic mediation, security cooperation, and economic initiatives across the Indo-Pacific.
By experts and staff
- Published
- Saee Parulekar
Continued Tensions in the South China Sea
On December 4, China deployed more than one hundred naval and coast guard vessels across East Asian waters, marking the largest show of force by China to date. The event sparked major concern from Taiwan and Japan, as Taiwanese presidential spokesperson Karen Kuo noted that Chinese activity expanded into the South China Sea, western Pacific, and waters near the disputed Japanese-administered Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands.
Confrontation continued in the South China Sea as China announced on December 12 that it drove away Philippine aircraft and vessels in the Scarborough Shoal. The next day, the Philippines’ coast guard reported that three fishermen were injured by Chinese coast guard ships, which used water cannons against twenty Philippine fishing boats off the disputed Sabina Shoal. Philippine Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro denounced the Chinese maritime actions as both inhumane and dangerous. The Chinese ministry defended its coast guard’s actions as lawful, however, stating that Philippine personnel threatened the vessels with knives. The U.S. Department of State condemned China’s actions, prompting a response from the Chinese foreign ministry that the United States has no right to interfere in the South China Sea issue.
China also conducted its most extensive drills around Taiwan to demonstrate its ability to prevent the island from receiving external support in the event of a military conflict. The Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) sent fighters, destroyers, frigates, and bombers to waters encircling most of Taiwan. Simultaneously, the PLA’s ground forces organized live-fire drills around the island. A Chinese official described the drill as a “stern warning” against independence efforts and external interference in the region. U.S. President Donald Trump stated he was not concerned by the drill, citing his strong relations with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
China-Japan Relations Deteriorate Further
As China-Japan tensions continued rising, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae stated that Chinese fighter jets aimed their radar at Japanese military aircraft near the Okinawa Islands. On December 10, the United States supported Japan and criticized China for its actions.
Separately, on December 11, U.S. nuclear-capable bombers flew alongside Japanese fighter jets in a show of force over the Sea of Japan (often referred to as the East Sea). The joint exercise came in response to recent coordinated drills by China and Russia that encircled both Japan and South Korea.
China and Japan also offered conflicting accounts of a maritime incident near the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, with China claiming its coast guard had expelled a Japanese fishing vessel that had illegally entered the area and asserted sovereignty over the islands. Japan, however, said its coast guard was the one to intercept and turn away two Chinese coast guard ships that had been approaching the fishing vessel.
China also intensified diplomatic efforts to isolate Japan following Takaichi’s November remark that Chinese military action—including a naval blockade of Taiwan—could prompt a military response from Japan. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for Britain to uphold the One China principle. To amass support, Wang made similar remarks during talks with his French counterpart and told the German foreign minister that Japan’s actions were unacceptable. Analysts say China’s efforts to sideline Japan stem partly from its frustration over what it views as continued European backing of Taiwan.
Amid increasingly strained relations, Japan will also soon enter its first “panda-free” era since 1972. Ueno Zoo in Tokyo announced that panda twins Xiao Xiao and Lei Lei are set to return to China at the end of January, ahead of the original February 20 date, marking a symbolic diplomatic loss. Chinese panda loans have historically aligned with periods of improving relations and efforts to bolster the country’s soft power.
Cautious Diplomatic Reengagement Between China and India
India asked China to guarantee that Indian nationals transiting through Chinese airports will not face selective targeting, arbitrary detention, or harassment, following the detention of an Indian citizen at Shanghai Pudong Airport in November.
The two nations have moved cautiously to rebuild ties, with India streamlining its business visa regime to ease the entry of foreign engineers and technicians, largely benefiting local firms dependent on Chinese professionals for manufacturing services. As part of the reforms, New Delhi launched a digital platform for sponsorship letters, simplified application forms, and removed the requirement for ministerial recommendations. The development represents a significant milestone, as India had effectively shut out Chinese visitors and expanded its visa scrutiny well beyond standard ministerial channels after the deadly 2020 Himalayan border clashes.
Separately, on December 11, senior foreign ministry officials from China and India met in Beijing for a new round of diplomatic consultations. The two sides acknowledged recent progress in bilateral relations; reaffirmed commitments made by Xi and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at their summit in Tianjin, China; and agreed to advance cooperation through resumed institutional dialogue, manage differences, and coordinate engagement on multilateral issues.
China-Pakistan Cooperation
China and Pakistan conducted their ninth Warrior series joint anti-terrorism exercise at the National Counter Terrorism Center in Pabbi, Pakistan, with troops from China’s PLA Western Theater Command participating in mixed-group training and live-fire drills.
China Expands Mediation Role in Cambodia-Thailand Conflict
On December 22, Chinese Special Envoy for Asian Affairs Deng Xijun said Thailand and Cambodia agreed to halt fighting, resume dialogue, and enact a ceasefire, adding that China supports the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ mediation efforts. Deng has also recently traveled to both countries to meet senior officials as part of Beijing’s broader diplomatic outreach.
The statement was followed by a December 27 ceasefire agreement between Cambodia and Thailand, which was heavily praised by China’s foreign ministry. The next day, China hosted the Cambodian and Thai foreign ministers in Yunnan Province for two days of trilateral talks to strengthen its role as a mediator in the conflict. During the talks, Wang called for improved efforts to promote regional development, peace, and security, echoing language Beijing frequently uses in regional diplomatic engagements.
China Deepens Economic Engagement in Southeast Asia
On December 18, China formally launched the Hainan Free Trade Port, separating the southern island province from the mainland for customs purposes to create a duty-free zone where foreign firms can operate in sectors restricted elsewhere in the country. China hopes the project will attract foreign investment, counter the effects of U.S. tariffs, and bolster its bid to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) trade bloc. Analysts and diplomats are skeptical, however, noting that CPTPP membership requires nationwide economic opening and that Hainan faces stiff competition from Southeast Asia and lacks Hong Kong’s legal and financial infrastructure.
A day later, Vietnam broke ground on an estimated $7.72 billion railway linking its capital city of Hanoi and the northern port of Haiphong to the Chinese border, with China providing government loans to finance the project as part of growing economic ties between the two countries. The rail line is 1 of 234 projects in Vietnam’s sweeping $129 billion national infrastructure spending plan, underscoring China’s deepening role as a financier of major development in Southeast Asia’s fastest-growing manufacturing hub.