The Gaza Truce is Tested

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Top of the Agenda

White House envoys arrived in Israel today for talks on shoring up the Gaza truce following weekend hostilities that threatened to derail the deal. U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff and President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner made the trip ahead of a prospective visit by Vice President JD Vance later this week. After yesterday’s fighting and a report by Israel’s public broadcaster of an order to pause aid to Gaza, Israel said yesterday evening that the ceasefire had resumed. 

The weekend hostilities. Israel said that Hamas fighters killed two of its soldiers in southern Gaza’s Rafah yesterday morning. Hamas said it was committed to the ceasefire, unaware of clashes in Rafah, and had not been in touch with groups there for months. In response to the Rafah incident, Israel launched dozens of airstrikes in Gaza, killing at least forty-five people, Gaza’s civil defense agency said. Each side accused the other of violating the truce. Trump appeared to validate Hamas’ explanation yesterday, saying “maybe the leadership isn’t involved” in the Rafah attack. 

What comes next. Vance said yesterday that even “the best case scenario” for peace would still progress in “fits and starts” with occasional fire, arguing that Trump’s plan remained “the best chance for sustainable peace.” He also said that ensuring Hamas was properly disarmed—a tenet of Trump’s plan—would require international forces, such as those from Gulf states, to enter Gaza. The United States, along with Middle Eastern and European countries, are currently negotiating a draft UN Security Council resolution that would establish the parameters of that force. Israel also said it is working to demarcate the withdrawal line in Gaza, beyond which it will fire at any resident who crosses, with visual markers.

“Instead of waiting to declare that an accord had been reached until details had been resolved, [Trump’s] administration locked both warring sides into publicly accepting a deal before they ironed out the specifics…By leaving all but the most immediate details out of the first phase, Trump’s plan has created a chasm between phase one and subsequent phases. Without sustained pressure on all the parties and a commitment to address all the thorny issues—including Hamas’s disarmament and Palestinian self-determination—this ceasefire risks becoming merely another interlude before violence reignites.” —RAND’s Shira Efron writes for Foreign Affairs

Across the Globe

Bolivia’s election. Centrist Senator Rodrigo Paz won the country’s runoff presidential election yesterday, ending almost twenty years of continued rule by the leftist Movement Toward Socialism party. He won around 54 percent of votes to his conservative opponent Jorge Quiroga’s 45 percent, preliminary results showed. Paz plans to gradually implement pro-market reforms to ameliorate Bolivia’s deep economic crisis.

Afghanistan-Pakistan truce. The countries agreed yesterday to an immediate ceasefire along their border following talks in Doha mediated by Qatar and Turkey. The recent clashes marked the countries’ worst spate of violence since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in 2021. The two sides are expected to meet in Istanbul next week for additional talks.

U.S.-Colombia tensions. Trump said yesterday he would cut U.S. aid to Colombia and apply new tariffs after Colombian President Gustavo Petro accused the United States of killing a Colombian fisherman in an airstrike. The White House alleged the targeted boat was carrying illegal drugs; neither claim has been independently confirmed. Trump announced the retaliatory measures on social media and accused Petro of permitting the production of illicit drugs. Colombia has long been one of the top recipients of U.S. counternarcotics aid.

U.S. stance on Ukraine. Trump declined to commit to providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles during a White House meeting Friday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Zelenskyy said. He added that Trump’s support of freezing the conflict along its current front lines “is positive” for Ukraine and that Trump “does not want an escalation” until he meets with Russian officials. Trump is expected to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the coming weeks.

Shipping emissions policy delayed. Countries on Friday postponed for one year a vote on a plan to decarbonize the shipping industry following opposition from the Trump administration. The International Maritime Organization’s proposed carbon price would have been one of the most sweeping policies to reduce global emissions. Washington threatened countries that supported the plan with measures such as sanctions, visa bans, and port fees, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Extended rule in Zimbabwe. The country’s ruling party announced plans Saturday to extend President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s term by two years, keeping him in power until 2030. Local media reported that Vice President Constantino Chiwenga did not support the extension. Mnangagwa’s Zanu-PF party has ruled Zimbabwe since the country’s independence in 1980.

Trump’s demands in China talks. The United States wants China to resume U.S. soybean purchases, crack down on the flow of fentanyl, and loosen its export controls on rare earths, Trump told reporters yesterday. Trump is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month, though in recent days he raised the possibility of calling off the meeting over China’s expansion of rare earth controls. A tariff freeze between the two countries is set to expire on November 10 unless an extension is agreed to. 

Kenyan opposition leader remembered. Thousands of Kenyans attended the funeral of opposition leader Raila Odinga yesterday as political leaders at home and abroad paid tribute to him. Odinga, who died at age 80 last week, “was willing to choose the path of peaceful reconciliation without compromising his core values,” former U.S. President Barack Obama wrote on social media. Odinga’s political career saw him become prime minister in 2008, run unsuccessfully for president five times, and strike political pacts with opponents in 2018 and 2024. 

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