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South China Sea: Going to Get Worse Before It (Might) Gets Better

<p>A Chinese national flag is seen on a boat at a fishing village in Tanmen town, Hainan province, next to the South China Sea.</p>
A Chinese national flag is seen on a boat at a fishing village in Tanmen town, Hainan province, next to the South China Sea.

By experts and staff

Published

This week’s latest South China Sea incident, in which a Chinese fishing boat cut a Vietnamese seismic cable —at least according to Hanoi— is a reminder that, despite the South China Sea dominating nearly every meeting in Southeast Asia this year, the situation in the Sea appears to be getting worse. This is in contrast to flare-ups in the past, when after a period of tension, as in the mid-1990s, there was usually a cooling-off period. Although there have been several brief cooling-off periods in the past two years, including some initiated by senior Chinese leaders traveling to Southeast Asia, they have not stuck, and the situation continues to deteriorate and get more dangerous.

In the new year, it will likely get even worse. Here’s why:

Happy New Year, South China Sea.