Ukraine Security Talks
By experts and staff
- Published
- CFR Editors
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Top of the Agenda
Kyiv seeks a consensus on security guarantees within seven to ten days, Zelenskyy said yesterday, even as Moscow cast doubt on accepting them. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said yesterday that Moscow must be involved in decisions on Ukraine’s postwar security architecture, a demand that could thwart progress on a war settlement. Nevertheless, the United States, Ukraine, and European allies are moving forward with talks on security support.
The latest on Ukraine’s postwar security.
- An Italian proposal under discussion would commit Ukraine’s allies to confer on a response within twenty-four hours if Ukraine is attacked, potentially triggering new military support and sanctions, Bloomberg reported. The plan has been described as similar to NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause. In another proposal, France and the United Kingdom would station troops in postwar Ukraine.
- Ukraine seeks a meeting with the United States and Russia once guarantees are agreed upon, and is open to locations such as Austria, Switzerland, and Turkey, Zelenskyy said today. But U.S. President Donald Trump in recent days told his team that Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin should meet before a trilateral, unnamed administration officials told The Guardian.
- In addition to demanding Moscow’s involvement in these talks, Lavrov said yesterday that China should be one of the guarantors of Ukraine’s security. Zelenskyy dismissed both prospects.
The latest on the battlefield.
- Overnight, Russia launched its largest combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine in more than a month. Ukraine said it blocked 577 of 614 drones and missiles that were launched; one person was reported killed.
- Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries have led gasoline prices there to spike and Moscow to temporarily suspend gasoline exports. Wholesale prices for Russia’s most common grade of gasoline have risen 55 percent since the start of the year.
“Any prospective ceasefire or peace agreement should aim to make the cost of Russian recidivism prohibitively high. No single provision in an agreement is likely to accomplish this goal, but a combination of measures could make Moscow think twice about violating an agreement.”
—CFR expert Paul B. Stares
Across the Globe
West Bank settlements. Israel gave final approval for a settlement plan that would divide the territory. It had been on hold for decades amid international opposition; Israel’s West Bank settlements are considered illegal. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said the move would “erase” the idea of a Palestinian state after several Western countries had in recent weeks said they would recognize one. U.S. Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee said a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian crisis was not a “high priority” for the Trump administration.
U.S.-EU trade roadmap. The United States and the EU published a joint statement today that details an economic agreement announced informally last month. Washington will drop tariffs on EU automobile imports to 15 percent once Brussels commits to improving trade barriers to certain U.S. agricultural products. The deal also opens the door to reducing U.S. tariffs on certain European aluminum and steel exports. Meanwhile, Brussels committed to steps including upping its purchases of U.S. arms.
New pressure on Fed. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said she would not be “bullied” into stepping down after Trump called for her to resign yesterday. He accused Cook of committing mortgage fraud; no charges have been filed. Trump previously urged Fed Chair Jerome Powell to step down, calling for the Fed to lower interest rates and suggesting that Powell had been involved in corruption.
Nord Stream arrest. Italian authorities arrested a man suspected of carrying out the 2022 attack on Nord Stream gas pipelines between Russia and Europe. German prosecutors said the man was Ukrainian and, along with collaborators, rented a sailing yacht from a German company to carry out the attack. Ukraine has denied any connection to the attacks, and did not immediately comment.
Syria-Israel talks. Officials from the two countries met in Paris this week for the first time since Syria’s interim government took power last December. The United States mediated the talks, which focused on de-escalating tensions that have flared since the ouster of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Israel launched air strikes on Damascus last month after sectarian violence—which ultimately killed more than 1,600 people—erupted in Syria’s Sweida region, saying it was acting on behalf of Syria’s Druze minority.
Auto price increases. Japanese carmakers started passing along price increases from tariffs to U.S. consumers by July, trade data showed. For the first few months since the Trump administration enacted auto tariffs in April, auto firms had largely absorbed the financial hit. The average price increase for Toyota brand models in July was $270.
Puerto Rico manufacturing. At least seven manufacturing firms have opened or expanded production on the island since Trump took office and began enacting new tariffs, government data shows. Millicent Pharma announced yesterday that it would begin manufacturing there; Puerto Rico is already the second-largest pharmaceutical producer and exporter in the United States.
U.S. visa pause for Zimbabwe. The United States has suspended issuing new regular visas for Zimbabwean nationals, citing unspecified concerns with the country’s government. The United States has criticized several African countries in recent months for not doing enough to curb visa overstays. Also this week, Washington began requiring that applicants from Zambia and Malawi post bonds of up to $15,000 to obtain some visitor visas.
What’s Next
- Today, a three-day conference featuring central bankers and finance ministers begins in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.
- Tomorrow, Amazon Rainforest countries conclude a summit in Colombia.
- Tomorrow, former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra is expected to receive a ruling in a trial on charges of insulting the monarchy.