War in Ukraine
Four years since Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia still occupies roughly 20 percent of the country after gaining almost five thousand square kilometers of territory in 2025. Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian cities, while Ukraine maintains drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and military sites. Since January 2022, Ukraine has received about $188 billion in aid from the United States and $197 billion from the European Union. Fighting and air strikes have inflicted nearly 56,000 civilian casualties [PDF], while 3.7 million people are internally displaced, and 5.9 million are registered as refugees. 10.8 million people need humanitarian assistance.
The Trump administration pledged to seek a settlement to end the war, setting out a twenty-point draft peace deal and a June deadline. Although Ukraine accepted the proposal after discussions, many terms of the deal—including territorial concessions and security guarantees—remain unclear. Russia, meanwhile, has stated that it will not agree to an amended deal that departs from the “spirit and letter” of President Putin’s August summit with President Trump in Alaska.
Background
Armed conflict in eastern Ukraine erupted in early 2014 following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. The previous year, protests in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, against Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s rejection of a deal for greater economic integration with the European Union (EU) were met with a violent crackdown by state security forces. Subsequently, the protests escalated, and President Yanukovych fled the country in February 2014.
One month later, in March 2014, Russian special forces took control of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea. Russian President Vladimir Putin cited the need to protect the rights of Russian citizens and Russian speakers in Crimea and southeast Ukraine. Russia then formally annexed the peninsula after Crimeans voted to join the Russian Federation in a disputed local referendum. The crisis heightened ethnic divisions, and two months later, pro-Russian separatists in the eastern Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk held independence referendums.
Armed conflict in the regions quickly broke out between Russian-backed forces and the Ukrainian military. Though Russia denied military involvement, both Ukraine and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) reported Russian troops and military equipment near Donetsk and Russian cross-border shelling. The conflict transitioned to an active stalemate, with regular shellingand skirmishes occurring along the frontlines.
In October 2021, months of intelligence gathering of Russian troop movements, force build-up, and military contingency financing culminated in a White House briefing with U.S. intelligence, military, and diplomatic leaders on a near-certain mass-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Leading up to the invasion, the Joe Biden administration reduced information-sharing constraints and allowed for the broader dissemination of intelligence and findings, both with allies—including Ukraine—and publicly. Commercial satellite imagery, social media posts, and published intelligence from November and December 2021 showed armor, missiles, and other heavy weaponry moving toward Ukraine with no official explanation from the Kremlin. In mid-December 2021, Russia’s foreign ministry called on the United States and NATO to cease military activity in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, commit to no further NATO expansion toward Russia, and prevent Ukraine from joining NATO in the future. The United States and NATO rejected these demands and threatened to impose severe economic sanctions on Russia.
In early February 2022, satellite imagery showed the largest deployment of Russian troops to its border with Belarus since the end of the Cold War. Negotiations between the United States, Russia, and European powers failed to bring about a resolution. In late February 2022, the United States warned that Russia intended to invade Ukraine, citing Russia’s growing military presence at the Russia-Ukraine border. President Putin then ordered troops to Luhansk and Donetsk for a “peacekeeping” function. The United States responded by imposing sanctions on the regions and the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. Nevertheless, just before the invasion, U.S. and Ukrainian leaders remained at odds regarding the likelihood of an armed Russian threat, with Ukrainian officials playing down the possibility of an incursion and delaying the mobilization of their troops and reserve forces.
On February 24, 2022, during a last-ditch UN Security Council effort to dissuade Russia from invading Ukraine, Putin announced the beginning of a full-scale land, sea, and air invasion, targeting Ukrainian military assets and cities across the country. Putin claimed that the goals of the operation were to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine and end the alleged genocide of Russians in Ukrainian territory. U.S. President Joe Biden called the attack “unprovoked and unjustified” and issued severe sanctions against top Kremlin officials, including Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov; four of Russia’s largest banks; and the Russian oil and gas industry in coordination with European allies. On March 2, 141 of 193 UN member states voted to condemn Russia’s invasion in an emergency UN General Assembly session, demanding that Russia immediately withdraw from Ukraine.
As the initial Russian invasion slowed in March, long-range missile strikes caused significant damage to Ukrainian military assets, urban residential areas, and communication and transportation infrastructure. Hospitals and residential complexes also sustained shelling and bombing attacks. Later that month, Russia announced a “reduction in military activity” near Kyiv and Chernihiv, followed by a full withdrawal of all troops from Ukraine’s capital region by April 6. In Kyiv’s surrounding areas, civilians described apparent war crimes committed by Russian forces, including accounts of summary executions, torture, and rape.
On April 18, Russia launched a new major offensive in eastern Ukraine following its failed attempt to seize the capital. By May, Russian forces took control of Mariupol, a major and highly strategic southeastern port city. Indiscriminate and targeted attacks against civilians in the city amplified allegations against Russian forces for international humanitarian law violations. Since the summer of 2022, fighting has largely been confined to Ukraine’s east and south.
The Russian seizure of several Ukrainian ports and subsequent blockade of Ukrainian food exports compounded an already acute global food crisis. Before the conflict, Ukraine was the largest supplier of commodities to the World Food Program (WFP), which provides food assistance to vulnerable populations. In July 2022, Russia and Ukraine signed an agreement to free more than twenty million tons of grain from Russian-controlled Ukrainian ports. In October, Russia suspended the grain deal in response to an alleged Ukrainian attack on Russian naval forces. Turkey quickly negotiated Russia’s return to the deal, which was consistently extended until July 17, 2023, when Russia quit the deal. Ukraine later adopted safe shipping lanes along the coast of NATO members Romania and Bulgaria, which has facilitated higher rates of grain exports compared to 2023.
In mid-August 2022, the war’s frontline shifted south, sparking international fears of a nuclear disaster at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant along the Dnipro River. The largest nuclear plant in Europe, the Zaporizhzhia facility was seized by Russian forces in the earliest stages of the war. Fighting near the facility has raised concerns of critical damage to the plant: shelling of the plant’s switchyard has already led to nearby energy disruptions, such as a city-wide black-out in Enerhodar. Representatives of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have visited Zaporizhzhia on multiple occasions to assess the threat of a nuclear accident. Attacks on the site and damage to its infrastructure continue: in February 2025, the IAEA warned that continued attacks on Ukraine’s power grids could increase the risk of nuclear disaster.
In September 2022, Ukrainian forces made strong advances in the northeast and mounted a revitalized southern counteroffensive. Ukraine retook significant territory in the Kharkiv region, surprising Russian forces and cutting off important supply lines at Lyman before stalling and settling into a new front line. In southern Ukraine, Ukrainian forces retook the city of Kherson and forced a Russian withdrawal from all territory west of the Dnipro River.
Russia then redeployed forces eastward to Donetsk, in addition to sending tens of thousands of reinforcements to the area in advance of a February 2023 offensive. Later that month, Putin moved to illegally annex four occupied territories: Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. In his accompanying speech, Putin suggested the potential for nuclear escalation, referencing the United States’ use of nuclear weapons against Japan during World War II.
Following a winter stalemate, Putin announced plans in February to take all of Donbas by March 2023 in an offensive surge. However, the attack made little progress and devolved into a months-long siege of Bakhmut, a town of limited strategic—but substantial symbolic—value. By late May, Russia claimed control of the city, and Ukrainian attempts to recapture the area were unsuccessful. The United States estimates Russia suffered one hundred thousand casualties in Bakhmut.
On June 6, 2023, a breach in the Nova Kakhovka dam, sixty kilometers north of Kherson on the Dnipro River, caused severe flooding in southwest Ukraine, affecting over eighty thousand people who live in the riparian zone. Ukraine accused Russia of blowing up the dam to prevent a southeastern offensive. The Ukrainian dam operator said it was destroyed beyond repair. In June 2023, Ukraine launched a much-anticipated counteroffensive, attempting to break through Russian defenses eastward in Donetsk province and southward in Zaporizhzhia province, which forms the “land corridor” to Crimea. Ukrainian forces met stiff resistance and suffered heavy losses against hardened Russian defensive positions, air superiority, and minefields. Nonetheless, Ukraine made small gains on the ground and has stepped up attacks on bridges to Crimea, Russian ships, and buildings in Moscow.
Since February 24, 2022, the United States has committed over $118 billion in assistance to Ukraine, including roughly $65 billion in immediate military aid. In early 2023, the Biden administration approved the provision of increasingly advanced weaponry, such as the Patriot air defense system, crucial for defending against Russian airstrikes, and top-tier battle tanks. U.S. troop presence in Europe has also increased to more than one hundred thousand soldiers. Despite continued condemnation by key international actors, Russia continues to build valuable partnerships; North Korea and Iran share intelligence and military equipment, while others, namely India and China, have begun purchasing Russian oil and gas at discounted prices.
On June 23, Putin faced a major internal challenge when Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the former leader of the Wagner Group of mercenaries, accused the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) of shelling his forces and announced a “march of justice” to unseat the military leadership. The mutiny followed months of tensions with the MoD. Wagner forces quickly occupied Rostov-on-Don, seized Russia’s southern military headquarters, and subsequently advanced more than halfway to Moscow. Putin declared the march “treason” and offered amnesty for soldiers who stopped. On June 24, Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko negotiated for Prigozhin and his Wagner soldiers to relocate to Belarus. Two months after the revolt, Prigozhin died in a private plane crash outside of Moscow. U.S. officials believe an explosion ordered by Putin likely brought it down.
In November 2023, Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi said the war had reached a stalemate after Ukraine’s failed counteroffensive. Due to strategic tensions between the president and his top military official, Zelenskyy replaced Zaluzhnyi with seasoned General Oleksandr Syrsky on February 8, 2024. Soon after his appointment, Syrsky ordered the withdrawal of troops from Avdiivka, a strategically important town in Donetsk, where fighting was ongoing for four months. He argued the retreat was necessary to avoid being encircled. The decision, however, handed Russia its most significant battlefield victory since the capture of Bakhmut in May 2023.
Recent Developments
In early August 2024, Ukraine launched the Kursk Offensive, a surprise incursion into Russia’s Kursk Oblast. This marked the first cross-border offensive conducted primarily by Ukrainian military forces, aiming to divert Russian troops and resources from eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian forces captured 1,250 square kilometers of Russian territory; however, progress stalled as Russia deployed over 50,000 troops to counter the attack. Russia claims to have recaptured roughly half of the territory lost in Kursk. In January 2025, Ukraine followed up with a second incursion, though progress remains limited due to a swift Russian response. Over 10,000 North Korean troops joined Russian forces throughout both offensives, suffering high casualties and eventually being withdrawn in February 2025.
Ukraine remains intent on applying offensive pressure on Russia through continual attacks on Russian infrastructure. In May 2024, Russia reported that Ukrainian drones targeted civilians in the Belgorod Oblast, killing six. In November 2024, Ukraine launched its largest drone strike on Russian territory, attempting to target Moscow. A month later, Ukrainian drones penetrated deep into Russian territory, reaching Kazan. As part of persistent attacks on Russian critical infrastructure, Ukrainian drones continue to target oil refineries, depots, and gas processing plants.
Meanwhile, Russian forces relentlessly seek to weaken the Ukrainian frontline. In May 2024, Russia launched an offensive on the Kharkiv region, which, despite making territorial gains, ultimately stalled. However, Russia’s fall and winter campaigns pushed deeper into Ukraine’s east and southeast, particularly in Donetsk, seizing over 4,000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. Despite some doubts among international scholars and critics, Russia remains confident in its wartime economy.
Putin’s veiled threats throughout the war to use nuclear weapons continue to raise fears of escalation. In June 2023, Russia announced the move of tactical nuclear weapons into Belarus, with Belarus confirming receipt in December 2023. In June 2024, both parties conducted nuclear weapons exercises. In November 2024, Putin modified Russia’s nuclear doctrine, stating that Russia would treat a conventional attack by an ally of a nuclear state as grounds for Moscow to launch a nuclear strike.
Ukraine has received consistent aid from the United States, and NATO member states continue to support its war effort. However, following the election of U.S. President Trump, many believe the war may end this year. Trump vowed to end the war upon taking office and has sought to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Zelenskyy has expressed concerns over exclusionary peace talks between the United States and Russia, fearing a disproportionate resolution and lack of security guarantees for Ukraine’s future. Additionally, Kyiv remains worried about freezes in military and humanitarian aid from the United States.
For CFR’s full coverage of Ukraine, please visit our Securing Ukraine’s Future Initiative.
Trump Agrees to Ukrainian Patriot Missile Interceptor Request
During the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, U.S. President Donald Trump said his administration would grant Ukraine a production license to build its own Patriot missile interceptors for defense (NYT). Meanwhile, Russian drones and missile strikes killed four people across Ukraine; meanwhile, Ukraine struck oil refineries in Russia’s Saratov and Tatarstan regions, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (AP).
Russian Strikes on Kyiv Kill At Least Twenty
Russia mounted its second major attack on Kyiv in days, killing at least twenty civilians and injuring fifty-six others, according to authorities (AP).
Trump Calls Putin and Zelenskyy Separately
U.S. President Donald Trump held separate calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to discuss ending the war in Ukraine (CBS/AP). Separately, a Ukrainian attack on Russian-occupied Crimea killed one and injured two others, according to Moscow-installed regional governor Sergei Aksyonov (AP).
Russian Strikes on Kyiv Kill Thirty-One
Russia carried out an eleven-hour drone and missile attack overnight in Kyiv, killing thirty-one civilians and injuring over one hundred, according to the country’s Emergency Service; Russia’s Defense Ministry said the assault was in response to Ukraine’s long-range strikes on Russian oil facilities (AP).
EU Releases Additional Four Billion-Euro Loan Package to Ukraine
The European Union has transferred an additional $4.44 billion of its $101 billion loan—the first $3.4 billion was released on June 25—for advanced drone technology to strengthen Ukraine’s defense, said European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (Reuters). Separately, Ukraine launched a major drone attack on Moscow, which the country said hit Dubna Satellite Communications Center, one of Russia’s largest satellite communication centers; a drone also killed a six-month-old baby in Yegoryevsk (CNN).
Russian Strikes Kill Twelve in Ukraine
Russian missiles and drones killed at least twelve civilians and injured forty others in what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described as “horrific attacks” (AP).
Ukraine Strikes Russian Oil Refinery
Ukraine set fire to a major oil refinery in the south of Russia as part of its campaign to choke Russian fuel supplies; President Vladimir Putin acknowledged for the first time that the country was facing a “certain deficit” of fuel and vowed to strengthen protection of oil facilities (AP).
Ukraine Launches Major Drone Attack
Ukraine launched 660 drones on a dozen Russian regions, Moscow’s Defense Ministry said, in one of its largest drone assaults since the start of the war (AP).
EU Releases Three Billion-Euro Loan Package for Ukraine’s Recovery
The European Union has disbursed the first $3.4 billion of a $101 billion loan to Ukraine, Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko announced at the opening of a conference on Ukraine’s post-war recovery, which serves as both a fundraising forum and a message to Russia that Western leaders remain committed to supporting Ukraine (AP).
Ukrainian Strikes Knock Out Power in Sevastopol
Russia and Ukraine Trade Strikes
Russian drone strikes across Ukraine killed 6, including a thirteen-year-old boy and 3 members of the same family, following a larger trend of increased civilian casualties in Russian attacks; a UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine said that at least 274 civilians were killed and 1,763 injured in Ukraine in May, the highest monthly total of civilian casualties since April 2022 (AP). Meanwhile, Ukraine’s military said it hit a plant producing electronics for missiles in Russia’s Voronezh region, which the Ukrainian General Staff called a “critical component” of Russia’s defense production (Reuters). The attack killed five people and injured several dozen, regional governor Alexander Gusev said (Reuters).
Ukrainian Attacks Kill Five
A Ukrainian drone attack on Crimea killed four and injured twenty-eight; a separate attack on an oil transport facility killed one and set an oil terminal ablaze (Reuters).
Zelenskyy Warns of Impending Russian Attack
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Russian forces were preparing a “massive attack” on Ukraine and warned residents to take care as Russian strikes in different regions killed at least six (Reuters). Zelenskyy also confirmed that Ukrainian drones had struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Tyumen Region in western Siberia (Reuters).
Ukraine Launches Largest Attack on Moscow Since Start of War
Ukraine launched the largest drone offensive on Moscow of the full-scale war, injuring seventeen and further damaging the oil refinery it struck two days prior (CNN). The attacks are part of Ukraine’s increasing efforts to cripple Russia’s oil industry, which largely finances Russia’s war effort (Reuters). Hundreds of flights at all Moscow airports were suspended, transport and aviation authorities said, following the attack (AP).
G7 Leaders Discuss Russia-Ukraine War at Summit
The Group of 7 leaders gathered for a summit focusing in part on the Russia-Ukraine war; however, President Donald Trump signaled that the war was not a priority for his administration, telling reporters that the United States had “nothing to do” with the war (NYT). European leaders expressed optimism about Ukraine’s position; following talks, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote on social media that the “tide is turning for Ukraine” (Reuters). Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukrainian drones had targeted an oil refinery in Moscow, about ten miles from the Kremlin, calling it a “just response” to Russian strikes the day prior (NYT).
Russian Attacks in Ukraine Kill Eleven, Set Historic Monastery Ablaze
Overnight Russian strikes across Ukraine killed at least eleven people and badly damaged the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra monastery—a UNESCO World Heritage site founded in 1051—which President Zelenskyy called “an attack on our history” and “one of Russia’s most serious crimes against Christian culture to date” (Reuters).
Trump-Putin Call
During a phone call, President Donald Trump told Russian President Vladimir Putin that resolving the conflict in Ukraine was crucial and that he was willing to assist, according to Kremlin advisor Yuri Ushakov (Reuters).
Two Ukrainian Strikes Cause Fires in Russia
Ukrainian strikes hit an oil processing and pumping facility in Russia’s Volgograd region, causing a fire, the Ukrainian General Staff said (Reuters). A separate Ukrainian drone attack killed one person and sparked a fire at a sea terminal in the southern Russian port of Temryuk, Governor Veniamin Kondratiev wrote on Telegram (Reuters).
EU Agrees to Launch Ukraine Membership Talks
At a meeting in Brussels, ambassadors from the twenty-seven European Union states agreed to officially open membership talks with Ukraine next week (AP). Ukraine and Russia exchanged overnight drone strikes, with Ukraine hitting oil refineries and a petrochemicals plant while Russia attacked railway stations and electrical substations (Reuters). Ukrainian attacks have also targeted supplies to Crimea, triggering the worst fuel crisis on the Black Sea Peninsula since its annexation in 2014 (AP).
Russian Forces Capture Two More Ukrainian Settlements
Russia’s Defense Ministry said that its forces had captured two new settlements: Rozkishne village, in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, and Okhrimivka, in the neighboring Kharkiv region (Reuters). Additionally, the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee said it voted to extend U.S. security assistance to Ukraine and to increase authorized funding to $750 million (Reuters).
Ukrainian Strikes Target Russian Oil Supplies
Russian Attacks Kill Three
Russian attacks on Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region killed a pregnant woman and two other people, Ukrainian officials said (Reuters). The European Union has proposed its twenty-first package of sanctions against Russia, heavily targeting the country’s banks and crypto networks as well as drone production, and oil traders and refiners, EU chief diplomat Kaja Kallas said (Reuters).
EU Releases $3.2 Billion to Ukraine
The European Union released nearly $3.2 billion as part of ongoing efforts to finance Ukraine in its war against Russia, the European Commission said (Reuters).
European Leaders Issue Joint Statement Supporting Ceasefire Talks
Following a meeting with President Zelenskyy in London, the leaders of France, Germany, and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement in support of Zelenskyy’s proposal for direct dialogue between Ukraine and Russia to secure a ceasefire (Reuters). Additionally, Russian forces deliberately struck a storage facility for spent nuclear fuel near Ukraine’s Chornobyl power plant; Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on social media that the attack was “extremely vile” (Reuters). A Ukrainian drone struck a train in Crimea, killing one (Reuters).
Russia Intercepts Hundreds of Ukrainian Drones
According to Russia’s Defense Ministry, its anti-aircraft units intercepted and destroyed 339 Ukrainian drones over a 13-hour period in various Russian regions, including Moscow (Reuters).
Russian Strikes Across Ukraine Kill Nine
Russian strikes killed five people in Ukraine’s southern Kherson region in three separate incidents on Friday, the regional governor said (Reuters). A separate Russian drone attack on a dairy factory near Kyiv killed four people and injured seven more, Ukrainian officials said (Reuters). Ukraine and Russia each exchanged 185 service personnel in the latest prisoner of war swap, officials in both countries said; the swap was the second under an agreement between the countries to swap 1,000 prisoners of war each, as part of a three-day ceasefire agreement brokered by the United States in early May (Reuters). Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s open letter, saying he saw no reason to meet at this time (Reuters).
U.S. House Passes Russia Sanctions and Ukraine Aid Package
The U.S. House of Representatives passed legislation imposing new sanctions on Russia and providing aid to Ukraine, in a bipartisan rebuke of President Trump’s approach to the conflict; however, the Senate is unlikely to vote on the bill (Reuters). Separately, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy published an open letter to Russian President Vladimir Putin, proposing that the two leaders meet to agree on an end to the war and warning that Kyiv would fight on if the proposal is rejected (Reuters).
Ukrainian Drones Strike St. Peterburg Oil Terminal
The long-range drones struck and set fire to an oil terminal outside of St. Petersburg as the city hosted an international economic forum; President Putin will speak at the forum on Friday (AP).
Russia Launches Massive Drone and Missile Attack Against Ukraine
Russia launched one of its largest aerial assaults of the war overnight, firing 656 drones and 73 missiles at Kyiv, Dnipro, Poltava, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia, killing at least 18 civilians and wounding more than 100 others (AP).
Russia Hits Kyiv With Oreshnik Missile in Mass Attack
Russia struck Kyiv and surrounding areas with roughly six hundred drones and ninety missiles—including a nuclear-capable Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile that hit the city of Bila Tserkva—killing at least four people and wounding more than sixty (NPR).
Zelenskyy Warns of Imminent Oreshnik Strike
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia was preparing to strike Ukraine with a hypersonic Oreshnik ballistic missile, citing intelligence shared by Ukraine, the United States, and Europe (Reuters).
Russian Attacks Across Ukraine
Russia has launched more than 1,560 drones and 56 missiles across Ukraine since yesterday morning and killed at least eleven people, Ukrainian officials said today; Russia’s barrage reached as far west as Ukraine’s border with Slovakia, prompting Slovakia to close its land border crossing (Reuters). Russia said Ukraine attacked three of its industrial facilities (BBC). The fighting followed the end of a three-day ceasefire over the past weekend (Guardian).
Draft U.S.-Ukraine Defense Deal
The countries are in talks about a potential defense deal under which Kyiv would export military technology to the United States and partner with U.S. firms to manufacture drones (CBS News). Zelenskyy wrote on Telegram this week that twenty countries were working on potential drone agreements with Kyiv (Ukrainian President).
Ukrainian Anti-Corruption Agency Issues Charges Against Andriy Yermak
The former presidential chief of staff was implicated in a money laundering scheme involving more than $10 million (WSJ). Yermak resigned from his position in November after anti-corruption officials searched his home; he told journalists in Kyiv that he would comment once the investigation was complete (Politico).
Three-Day Ceasefire Only Partially Holds
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine refrained from long-range strikes due to the absence of large-scale Russian attacks, but that fighting continued on the front lines (AP).
Ukrainian Envoys in Miami
Ukrainian negotiator Rustem Umerov met with U.S. officials in Miami to discuss the status of peace talks with Russia, both sides said; Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations have stalled in the wake of the Iran war (Reuters). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the talks “substantive” in a social media post and said Kyiv aimed to “reinvigorate diplomacy” (Ukrainian President).
Russia Rejects Ukraine’s Ceasefire
Russia fired dozens of drone strikes at Ukraine overnight despite Kyiv announcing a ceasefire that was set to begin at midnight, Ukrainian officials said; both countries announced ceasefires for different dates this week, with neither accepting the dates proposed by the other (AP).
Russia Announces Ceasefire to Mark World War II
Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would observe a two-day ceasefire in Ukraine on Friday and Saturday, threatening a major attack if Kyiv disrupted its planned events to mark the anniversary of the end of World War II (Reuters). Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wrote on social media that Kyiv had not received a formal proposal about those dates and planned to observe a truce beginning at midnight tonight (Ukrainian President). Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced almost $200 million in new aid to Ukraine through a NATO-led program at the European Political Community summit (CBC). Per reports from the Financial Times and Russian investigative outlet Important Stories, Putin has limited his movements and increased personal security measures since early March amid fears of an assassination attempt; Putin and his family have reportedly stopped visiting their Moscow residences, staffers are no longer permitted cell phones, and he is spending more time in bunkers (FT; Important Stories).
Trump-Putin Call
Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed support for a brief ceasefire in Ukraine during a call, Kremlin advisor Yuri Ushakov said; the temporary halt in fighting could occur around the time of a May 9 Russian holiday commemorating the end of World War II (NYT). Trump confirmed his support for the idea to reporters (NPR). Russia normally stages large military parades, but is paring back this year because Ukraine has demonstrated increased cross-border strike capability (WSJ).
Hungary Greenlights Ukraine Aid
The EU gave preliminary approval for a $106 billion loan to Ukraine after Hungary lifted its veto; Hungary’s shift followed outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s recent election loss and the restoration of fuel deliveries to Hungary through the Druzhba pipeline, which crosses Ukraine and had been damaged in the war (Bloomberg).
Ukraine Pipeline Repair
Repairs are being tested today on the Druzhba pipeline after damage to it sparked a dispute between Ukraine and Hungary; the pipeline was damaged by Russian airstrikes in January, and Hungary subsequently claimed Ukraine was delaying repairs (Bloomberg). Budapest has signaled it will lift its veto on European Union (EU) aid to Kyiv once the pipeline is repaired (Politico).
Mass Shooting in Kyiv
A mass shooting and hostage incident in Kyiv is being investigated as terrorism, Ukraine’s attorney general said; the shooter opened fire on the street before entering a supermarket and taking hostages (CNN). At least seven people were killed and more than a dozen others wounded; the shooter e was killed at the scene (Reuters).
Russian Missile and Drone Attacks Across Ukraine Kill at Least Seventeen People
Russia and Ukraine Trade Ceasefire Violation Accusations
Russia and Ukraine traded accusations of violating their thirty-two-hour Orthodox Easter ceasefire, with each side reporting hundreds of drone and shelling attacks within hours of the truce taking effect on Saturday; Ukraine’s military tallied nearly 7,700 Russian violations over the course of the ceasefire—including over 6,000 drone strikes and more than 1,300 artillery attacks—while Russia reported nearly 2,000 Ukrainian violations overnight (Reuters).