Criminal Violence in Mexico
Mexico faces a crisis of kidnappings, disappearances, and other criminal violence that has left over thirty-thousand people dead each year since 2018. Gangs and drug cartels largely perpetrate this violence, but the state has also committed human rights violations in its war against these groups. Civilians bear the most significant impact, which drives migrants to the U.S. border. Drugs from the cartels also flow over the border, fueling a drug overdose epidemic in the United States.
Background
In the 1980s, Mexico’s criminal groups and drug traffickers became organized [PDF], assigning distinct regional areas of control for each group and establishing networks and trafficking routes. However, as production and distribution increased, the groups began fighting for territorial control and access to markets, leading to an increase in violence across Mexico.
The Mexican government officially declared war on criminal organizations in 2006 when former President Felipe Calderon launched an initiative to combat cartels using military force. In 2012, President Enrique Peña Nieto revised the Calderon government’s strategy, shifting efforts away from violent exchanges and toward improving law enforcement capacity and supporting public safety.
However, after the Sinaloa Cartel’s Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman was arrested in 2014, re-arrested in 2016, and finally extradited to the United States in 2017, a power vacuum was created within the Sinaloa Cartel, resulting in an accompanying increase in violence between rival factions seeking new territory and influence. Moreover, despite an initial decrease in homicides following Peña Nieto’s reforms, Mexico continued to struggle with corruption and crime-related violence. By 2016, drug-related homicides had increased by 22 percent, with more than twenty thousand killed. In 2017, a mass grave containing the remains of more than 250 victims of crime-related violence was uncovered in Veracruz State. The violence rapidly intensified to a peak of 33,341 homicides in 2018, and the murder rate has dropped only slightly since then. Additionally, from 2017 to 2020, a journalist was killed [PDF] every week on average.
Recognizing widespread assertions that the use of military force had only increased the level of crime-related violence in Mexico—and accusations that the military had committed human rights abuses and carried out extrajudicial killings—then-presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, popularly known as AMLO, promised on his campaign trail to revolutionize the fight against cartels and revert to a civilian-led police force. As part of his amorphous “hugs, not bullets” policy, AMLO suggested poverty alleviation programs, the legalization of marijuana, and new sentencing guidelines for drug traffickers. After winning the election and assuming office in December 2018, AMLO announced the creation of a new National Guard (a hybrid civilian police and military force) to fight cartels. In 2019, under a deal with the United States, AMLO deployed much of this force to the southern border with Guatemala to stem migration.
However, AMLO’s tactics have largely failed to curb violence. Though homicide rates have dropped marginally, the country still reports over thirty thousand crime-related deaths per year. Mexico’s 2024 general elections were its most violent in decades, attacks on journalists have continued at record highs, and anti-corruption reforms have floundered.
Meanwhile, criminal and drug trafficking organizations threaten to undermine the strength and legitimacy of the Mexican government, an important U.S. regional partner, as well as harm civilian populations in both countries. In 2007, the George W. Bush administration and the Calderon government launched the Merida Initiative to improve U.S.-Mexico cooperation on security and rule of law issues in Mexico. It remained in place until AMLO rejected the agreement over its militarized approach and worked with the Biden administration to draft the more broadly focused Bicentennial Framework to replace it in 2021.
Recent Developments
Despite initially advocating a less securitized approach to reducing drug trafficking and violence, AMLO has expanded the military’s role in policing. Though the military’s involvement was intended as a temporary measure, Mexico’s Congress passed a reform in August 2022 that allows the military to carry out domestic law enforcement until 2028. AMLO also promised to bring the National Guard under the army’s command despite an April 2023 Supreme Court ruling that it must remain under civilian control. Rights groups say military policing has eroded the treatment of civilians, who face arbitrary detention, rape, and extrajudicial killings. Nonetheless, the government appeared to double down on its approach, granting the navy full control of Mexico City’s busiest airport to combat smuggling in July 2023. It also transferred several other government functions to Mexico’s military, including large-scale infrastructure construction, tourism development, and customs oversight at ports of entry and exit.
President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum, AMLO’s chosen successor, has said she aims to strengthen AMLO’s National Guard, hire more police investigators, and invest in more social programs for youth to address violence. Some critics argue that continuing AMLO’s militarized approach will be insufficient to tackle Mexico’s security issues.
Meanwhile, cartels have consolidated and expanded their control, battling each other with heavy weaponry and drones. Kidnappings, killings, and the targeting of journalists remain prevalent, and the state has struggled to deliver justice for victims of past crimes, particularly those committed by the military. After the kidnapping of four Americans in March 2023, some U.S. Republican lawmakers proposed sending a U.S. military force to Mexico. AMLO rejected the threat, calling it “irresponsible” and saying he would not permit an intervention.
As of May 2024, cartels controlled about one third of Mexico’s territory, according to one estimate from the U.S. military. According to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Agency, the Sinaloa and Jalisco cartels are responsible for the vast majority of drug trafficking in the United States, supplying methamphetamines, cocaine, heroin, marijuana, and other drugs. An increasingly high quantity of fentanyl, the leading driver of drug overdoses in the United States, is also smuggled across the southern border by the Sinaloa and Jalisco cartels and their associates.
Mexico Rejects Reports of Potential U.S. Military Operations
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum dismissed claims that Washington is preparing to deploy forces against cartels on Mexican soil, saying her government neither expects nor consents to unilateral action; the remarks follow weeks of U.S. strikes on suspected drug-smuggling boats in nearby waters (Reuters). Separately, Sheinbaum announced that Mexico would not change its security approach following the killing of a mayor on November 2, claiming that her term has seen reduced homicides and suggesting she would instead strengthen current security measures (AP). Meanwhile, security forces in Pacific Sinaloa state killed thirteen armed individuals who attacked them and arrested another four, while also releasing nine kidnapped people, amid continued intra-cartel violence (CBS/AFP).
Mexican Mayor Killed
Carlos Manzo, a mayor who had vocally criticized drug cartels in Mexico’s avocado capital of Uruapan, was shot and killed during a public festival over the weekend (NYT). Manzo had already been under federal protection due to threats against him; President Claudia Sheinbaum called an emergency cabinet meeting and pledged to pursue justice (Reuters). Mexican authorities later announced that the assailant was linked to organized crime (AP).
U.S. Sanctions on Mexico-Based Human Smuggling Network
The U.S. Treasury sanctioned the Bhardwaj Human Smuggling Organization, along with its leader, associates, and affiliated companies, for moving thousands of migrants into the United States and laundering profits through businesses elsewhere, as Washington intensifies action against transnational criminal groups (Treasury).
U.S. Strike in the Eastern Pacific
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced that a U.S. airstrike targeted a vessel suspected of drug trafficking, killing four individuals (Reuters). Meanwhile, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum reiterated her opposition to the U.S. military campaign and called for tighter coordination with the United States when it conducts airstrikes near Mexican territory, as she warns of sovereignty concerns (CNN).
Drone Attacks in Sinaloa
Explosive-laden drones struck properties in Badiraguato, forcing residents to flee amid reports that farmland belonging to the family of drug leader Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman was targeted by an unidentified criminal group, as Mexican authorities warn of an increase in criminal drone attacks (CBS/AFP).
Cuba Arrests U.S.-Wanted Chinese Drug Trafficker
Cuban authorities arrested Zhi Dong Zhang, a Chinese national accused by the United States of trafficking fentanyl and cocaine; the suspect was previously captured and jailed in Mexico following U.S.-Mexican cooperation before escaping in July (NYT). Officials suggested that Cuba may return him to Mexican authorities (CBS/AFP).
Cartel Kills Local Agriculture Leader
Bernardo Bravo, head of the Apatzingan Valley Citrus Producers Association in Michoacán, was killed after publicly accusing cartels such as Los Viagras of extorting lime growers and crippling production across the region; his killing underscores the growing influence of organized crime over the Michoacán region (AP).
Authorities Arrest Sinaloa Cartel Members
Mexican security forces detained six men, including two Guatemalans and four Mexicans, in Chiapas after intercepting a vehicle carrying rifles, ammunition, and tactical gear; the suspects claimed affiliation with the Sinaloa cartel, underscoring the group’s cross-border operations (Prensa Libre).
Drone Attack in Tijuana
A Mexican crime group used an improvised drone carrying nails and metal fragments to strike the Baja California state attorney general’s office in Tijuana, damaging vehicles but causing no casualties; the attack prompted a security alert from the U.S. Consulate in Tijuana as officials continue investigating the incident (Reuters).
Authorities Discover Bodies in Sonora State
Mexican officials confirmed that they discovered sixty bodies in rural Hermosillo, Sonora, in January and February, identifying them as victims kidnapped as part of clashes between rival criminal groups; prosecutors said five suspects have been arrested (Reuters).
Trump Administration Revokes Mexican Visas
Reuters reported that the Trump administration has revoked visas of more than fifty Mexican politicians, mostly from President Claudia Sheinbaum’s ruling Morena party, as part of an expanded campaign against suspected cartel-linked officials; the move is unprecedented in scale, marking a sharper U.S. pressure tactic that could strain cooperation on security and trade (Reuters).
U.S. Sanctions Hit Mexican Firms Tied to Fentanyl Supply
The U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned twelve Mexico-based companies and eight associates accused of funneling chemicals to the Sinaloa cartel’s “Chapitos” faction, freezing their U.S. assets and blocking transactions; officials said one firm, Sumilab, evaded earlier 2023 sanctions by shifting operations through front companies, as Washington intensifies efforts to disrupt cartel financing (AP).
Mexico Detains Leader of Tren de Aragua Gang
The Mexican Security Ministry captured Nelson Arturo, the local leader of the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua in Mexico, along with two others carrying drugs and cash; the gang, which the United States has designated a terrorist organization, has expanded across Latin America amid mass Venezuelan migration (AP).
Clashes at Mexico City March Honoring 1968 Massacre
Violence broke out during Mexico City’s annual march commemorating the 1968 Tlatelolco student massacre, as masked groups vandalized shops, hurled Molotov cocktails, and clashed with police, though most protesters were peaceful; authorities estimated there were 10,000 participants, with many carrying Palestinian flags to simultaneously protest Israel’s war in Gaza (Euronews).
United States and Mexico Launch Joint Crackdown on Gun Trafficking
The new bilateral initiative targets cross-border weapons smuggling by cartels and will see Mexico deepen its use of U.S. tracing tools and ballistic imaging; both countries will boost joint inspections, real-time intelligence sharing, investigations, and prosecutions under the new U.S.-Mexico Security Implementation Group (Reuters).
Trump Administration Labels Barrio 18 as Foreign Terrorist Organization
The United States designated the Barrio 18 gang, active in El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, as a foreign terrorist organization, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced; Barrio 18 expanded its operations in the Northern Triangle as U.S. deportation efforts accelerated, pushing El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele to jail thousands of suspected gang members in a crackdown praised by the Trump administration but criticized for rights abuses (AP).
United States Sanctions Sinaloa Cartel Faction Los Mayos
The U.S. Treasury sanctioned leaders, affiliates, and companies tied to Los Mayos, a Sinaloa cartel faction loyal to Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, citing its role in fentanyl trafficking, kidnapping, and money laundering along the U.S.-Mexico border (Treasury).
U.S. Treasury Official to Travel to Mexico
The Treasury Department announced that Under Secretary John Hurley will travel to Mexico City to discuss targeting cartel operations, drug trafficking, and illicit financing with Mexican officials (Reuters).
United States Sanctions Entities Linked to CJNG Schemes
The U.S. Treasury sanctioned four individuals and thirteen companies based in or near Puerto Vallarta, which were allegedly involved in timeshare fraud schemes with the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG); according to FBI data, victims, primarily U.S. citizens, lost nearly $300 million from 2019 to 2023 (Reuters).
Mexico Transfers Prisoners to United States
Mexico sent twenty-six people imprisoned for drug-related crimes to the United States, the second transfer this year of high-profile prisoners; the move comes as the two countries continue tariff talks, and after Trump reportedly ordered the Pentagon to use military force against Mexican cartels (BBC).
Sheinbaum Rejects Suggestion of U.S. Military Operations Against Cartels
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said that U.S. military action on its soil was “absolutely ruled out” after the New York Times reported that Trump secretly directed the Pentagon to start military operations against drug cartels it listed as terrorists; a White House spokesperson said Trump’s priority was “protecting the homeland” (NYT).