Instability in Venezuela

Economic and Political Crisis Under Chávez and Maduro

Hugo Chávez came to power in 1998 and leveraged Venezuela’s immense oil reserves and rising crude prices to provide subsidized goods and services to the Venezuelan people, cutting the extreme poverty rate by 15 percent. However, years of economic mismanagement and corruption under Chávez transformed the state-owned PDVSA oil company into an institution run by military and political allies rather than experienced technicians. Venezuela’s dependence on oil exports also deepened under Chávez, with fuel as a percentage of total exports rising from around 71 percent in 1998 to nearly 98 percent in 2013. The collapse of global oil prices in 2014 led to a rapid economic decline.

Following Chávez’s death in 2013, then–Vice President Nicolás Maduro assumed the presidency and was subsequently elected. His government attempted to address the economic crisis by printing money, pushing the country into hyperinflation. By 2014, large-scale anti-government protests erupted across the country. In 2015, voters elected the first opposition-controlled National Assembly in two decades, setting the stage for a standoff between the legislature and Maduro.

2018 Presidential Election Dispute and International Response

Maduro was reelected to a six-year term in May 2018, despite boycotts and accusations of fraud in a widely condemned election. Two weeks after Maduro was sworn in, the National Assembly declared his election illegitimate. Opposition leader Juan Guaidó announced that he would assume the office of interim president until free and fair elections could be held, in accordance with the succession rules outlined in the 1999 constitution. Guaidó was quickly recognized as interim president by the United States, Canada, most of the European Union, and the Organization of American States. However, Maduro retained the support of several major countries, including China, Cuba, Russia, and Turkey.

The resulting political stalemate prompted escalating U.S. sanctions against the Maduro government, including measures targeting oil shipments to Cuba—as Maduro increasingly relied on Cuban military and intelligence support to stay in power—and threatened sanctions on third parties linked to Venezuela’s oil sector. However, Venezuela’s allies and partners limited the effect of U.S. efforts to pressure the country. Russia continued to support the Maduro regime, sending Russian troops to Venezuela in March 2019 and helping the government evade oil sanctions. China continued to back the government as well, offering to help rebuild the national power grid.

Escalating Humanitarian Crisis and Contested 2024 Election

By early 2019, thousands were fleeing Venezuela daily, mostly on foot. Nationwide blackouts in March 2019, resulting from years of infrastructure neglect, left millions without power. The breakdown in basic services contributed to severe food and medicine shortages and the spread of infectious diseases. After years of denying the humanitarian crisis existed and blocking foreign aid, which his government characterized as a U.S. political ploy, Maduro allowed a Red Cross shipment of emergency supplies to enter in April 2019.

Since the crisis escalated in 2015, an estimated eight million Venezuelans have fled the country, with 85 percent resettling in other Latin American countries, including at least three million in Colombia alone. Armed groups operating across the porous Colombia-Venezuela border have further worsened security conditions for migrants. The exodus has produced a regional humanitarian crisis, as neighboring governments have struggled to absorb refugees.

Despite international pressure and sanctions, Maduro consolidated power and introduced a series of economic reforms: ending price controls, permitting dollar transactions, reducing bolivar circulation, initiating privatizations, and resuming publication of economic indicators after a four-year hiatus. In September 2021, Venezuela redenominated its currency, dropping six zeros from the bolivar. Although these shifts in economic policy left Venezuelans struggling to secure bolivars and adapt in the short term, hyperinflation slightly subsided. Inflation rose again in late 2022, and by 2023 consumer prices were tripling annually, still one of the highest rates in the world, though down from hyperinflationary levels.

Maduro’s international standing partially recovered during this period. Western officials resumed diplomatic engagement, and the election of governments more open to engagement with Caracas in Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico reduced his regional isolation. As international support for Guaidó weakened, the Biden administration formally revoked recognition of him as Venezuela’s legitimate leader, following the Venezuelan opposition’s withdrawal of support.

After years of boycotts and internal divisions, the opposition decided to contest the 2024 presidential election. María Corina Machado emerged as the most popular opposition figure, though the government barred her from holding public office, and Edmundo González Urrutia became the opposition frontrunner. Maduro agreed to hold free and fair elections in exchange for U.S. oil sanctions relief, but his government did not meet the terms: independent observers were blocked and popular opposition candidates were disqualified, prompting the United States to reimpose sanctions.

The opposition independently collected more than 80 percent of polling-station tally sheets, which showed González winning by a wide margin. Nevertheless, the government-controlled National Electoral Council declared Maduro the winner. The United States, Canada, the European Union, and other countries condemned the result as neither free nor fair, with several recognizing González as president-elect. Meanwhile, Maduro proceeded with a third term, which the Supreme Court swiftly certified.

U.S. Pressure Campaign Against Venezuela

Upon returning to office, President Donald Trump revived his “maximum pressure” campaign against Venezuela, accusing the country of trafficking cocaine into the United States and doubling the U.S. bounty on Maduro to $50 million, alleging the Venezuelan leader’s direct role in smuggling operations. During Trump’s first term, his administration charged Maduro with leading the Cartel de los Soles (Cartel of the Suns), a loose criminal network tied to senior Venezuelan officials who have allegedly profited from drug trafficking and extortion. The Trump administration designated both Cartel de los Soles and the Tren de Aragua gang as foreign terrorist organizations.

As the Trump administration escalated its pressure on the Maduro regime, the United States dramatically scaled up its military presence in the region. In August 2025, Trump signed a secret directive authorizing the Pentagon to use military force against select Latin American drug cartels in what would later be termed Operation Southern Spear. Shortly after, the United States deployed a fleet of naval warships. The buildup eventually reached fifteen thousand troops, the largest in decades.

In September 2025, U.S. forces struck what Trump claimed was a Tren de Aragua boat trafficking cocaine to the United States. The strike marked the beginning of a highly controversial U.S. campaign in the Caribbean and western Pacific that targeted boats the Trump administration alleged to be involved in drug trafficking. From September through December 2025, the United States conducted 35 strikes that killed 123 people. Reporting disputed the Trump administration’s characterization of the victims as drug traffickers, and a broad swathe of legal experts said the practice could amount to extrajudicial killings.

U.S. Capture of Maduro and Transition Under Delcy Rodríguez

On January 3, 2026, the United States launched large-scale military strikes on Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, in an operation that captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The couple were transported to New York and arraigned on charges of narco-terrorism, cocaine importation conspiracy, and possession of machine guns. Maduro and his wife pleaded not guilty. Amid the regime crisis, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez was sworn in as Venezuela’s interim president, authorities declared a national state of emergency. 

Although Trump initially claimed that the United States would “run” Venezuela, the administration has since offered conflicting statements on the future of U.S. involvement in the country. On March 5, the United States announced the reestablishment of diplomatic relations with Venezuela and promised to help Venezuela create “the conditions for a peaceful transition to a democratically elected government,” though the United States has not announced steps toward a democratic transition. It has instead recognized Rodríguez’s government and opened the door for Venezuela to restore ties with governments that severed them in 2019.

One of Trump’s justifications for the January intervention was that U.S. firms would develop Venezuela’s vast oil reserves and recoup allegedly stolen oil money. Since seizing control over Venezuela’s oil exports in January, however, the Trump administration has not publicly disclosed how much Venezuelan oil it has sold, how much revenue it has collected, or how it has used those funds. Tanker-tracking data from Bloomberg suggests that the value of U.S.-controlled oil has increased significantly, from $600 million in January (about 380,000 barrels per day) to about $3.7 billion in April alone (about 1.1 million barrels per day), with the United States receiving 43 percent of Venezuelan oil. The United States has also issued temporary sanctions relief in the form of waivers that authorize U.S. companies and businesses to operate in various aspects of Venezuela’s oil, mining, and financial sectors, effectively helping return Venezuelan oil to international markets and opening opportunities for future investment. However, experts have noted that rebuilding Venezuela’s oil infrastructure will require a long-term investment of billions of dollars.

On June 24, 2026, two back-to-back earthquakes struck Venezuela, the largest such event to hit the country in more than a century. The death toll, which has surpassed 3,500, is estimated to be between 10,000 and 100,000. Some 7.9 million Venezuelans are already in need of humanitarian assistance and more than 17,000 have been left homeless, which doctors warn could trigger a widening medical crisis. Further, the U.S. Geological Survey has estimated that economic losses will be between 4 and 20 percent of Venezuela’s GDP. 

The disaster has also strained Venezuela’s government, led by acting President Delcy Rodríguez, which has been widely criticized for its lack of organization and inability to “carry out basic governmental functions,” especially in the critical seventy-two-hour period following the earthquakes. The United States pledged $150 million in assistance in addition to a regional Disaster Assistance Response Team. Venezuela also received support from countries across the Americas, including Brazil, Canada, and Mexico, as well as the United Nations.