China in the Indo-Pacific: November 2024

South China Sea Claims: On November 8, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. signed two new laws that align the Philippines’ South China Sea claims with the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS). The laws also enshrined the 2016 South China Sea ruling into domestic law, which was issued by The Hague’s international tribunal and affirmed the Philippines’ claims to its territorial waters.  

To assert its own competing claims to the area, China condemned the legislation and published territorial baselines around the Scarborough Shoal, which it had seized from the Philippines in 2012. According to UNCLOS, baselines are lines drawn around the coast of an island or reef to determine a state’s territorial waters and exclusive economic zone. Experts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative noted that China’s baseline claims in the Scarborough Shoal largely adhere to international practice, unlike its 1996 delineation of the Paracel Islands.  

A week later, China asserted that it had granted the Philippines “permission” to resupply the BRP Sierra Madre warship in the Second Thomas Shoal of the Spratly Islands. The grounded vessel has served as a persistent site of confrontation between the two countries in recent months, and Philippine sailors living on the ship were often short on rations.  

Cambodian Canal Uncertainty: The future of the China-backed Funan Techo Canal, which aims to link the Mekong River to the Gulf of Thailand, is now unclear. At the project’s groundbreaking ceremony in August, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet claimed the China Road and Bridge Corporation would provide 49 percent of the funding for the canal, which is expected to cost $1.7 billion. However, four people involved in the project told Reuters that Chinese interlocuters have recently expressed misgivings, and the proposed funding remains uncertain. China has scaled back its ambitious Belt and Road Initiative since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic and the slowdown of its domestic economy.  

Myanmar’s Civil War: This month, China made a show of support for Myanmar’s military junta amid its civil war, as junta leader Min Aung Hlaing made his first visit to China since seizing power in a 2021 coup. Min Aung Hlaing had asked to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing, but the request was turned down. Instead, he met with Premier Li Qiang in Kunming, who reportedly urged the junta leader to hold new elections in 2025. As the junta’s grip on the country continues to diminish, China has become increasingly wary of the junta’s staying power and views holding elections as a solution to the political crisis. Li also emphasized that each country’s respective border posts should remain under government control, underscoring China’s concern about instability on its shared border with Myanmar.  

Reporting by the Irrawaddy, a Myanmar magazine, revealed China had proposed a joint security company with Myanmar’s junta to safeguard Chinese projects in October. A memorandum of understanding suggested the company would oversee weapons importation.  

China detained the leader of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), an ethnic armed organization fighting the junta in Myanmar’s civil war. The commander was summoned to Yunnan for a meeting with a senior Chinese envoy and was subsequently placed under house arrest. The MNDAA is part of a coalition of three resistance groups that have retaken significant territory near Myanmar’s border with China from the junta since October 2023. Although China initially supported that offensive last year, it has increasingly pressured the resistance groups to end their operations. Despite China’s withdrawal of support, the rebels have continued to take territory along the China-Myanmar border.  

China-Indonesia Relations Under Prabowo: After becoming Indonesia’s president last month, Prabowo Subianto conducted his first international visit to Beijing on November 10. While there, Prabowo signed a raft of agreements with Xi, including on lithium, green energy, and tourism. An agreement regarding maritime cooperation prompted domestic backlash in Indonesia when the leaders’ joint statement said China and Indonesia had “reached important common understanding on joint development in areas of overlapping claims.” The language marked a departure from Indonesia’s long-running assertion that it is a non-claimant state in South China Sea territorial disputes and that it has no overlapping jurisdiction with China. Although the Indonesian foreign ministry claimed the agreement only addressed fisheries and fish conservation, analysts expressed concern that Indonesia was compromising its sovereignty and legitimating China’s South China Sea claims.  

In a sign of China’s continued economic presence in Indonesia, Chinese smartphone firm Oppo launched its newest smartphone in Bali and announced it would expand its facility in West Jakarta. 

ASEAN Defense Summit: Southeast Asian defense ministers met in Vientiane, Laos, for closed-door talks with regional and international counterparts, including U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun. Dong urged dialogue to resolve disputes and opposed provoking disputes or bringing in external forces. 

New Japanese Leadership: Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru held his first meeting with Xi on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Lima, Peru. Xi voiced hope that Japan would “properly handle” sensitive issues such as Taiwan and the countries’ shared history. The meeting comes amid diplomatic progress in recent months. China admitted to previously violating Japanese airspace in August and pledged not to do it again.