High-Stakes Peace Talks With Ukraine
By experts and staff
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- CFR Editors
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Top of the Agenda
European leaders are accompanying Zelenskyy to a White House visit today in response to Friday’s U.S.-Russia summit. They are seeking clarity about U.S.-backed security guarantees for Ukraine as part of a war settlement. They are also pushing their stance on defending Ukrainian territory after U.S. President Donald Trump met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska and appeared to support Moscow’s preferred framework for peace negotiations.
Following the U.S.-Russia meeting...
- Trump told European leaders that Putin sought all of Ukraine’s territory in the Donbas region, including Ukraine-controlled areas, media including the Financial Times reported. In exchange, Putin would reportedly freeze the frontline in other areas, requiring Ukraine to cede territory that Russia currently occupies.
- Putin agreed that the United States and Europe could “effectively offer Article 5-like language to cover a security guarantee,” U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff told CNN on Sunday, referring to NATO’s mutual defense clause. Trump had resisted extending such guarantees to Ukraine in recent months.
- Trump said there would be no new sanctions on Russia after Friday’s meeting.
- Today, he wrote on social media that Ukraine should forgo goals of getting back Russia-occupied Crimea and joining NATO.
Ukraine and its European allies have held intense consultations and issued a series of statements in response.
- Speaking alongside European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen yesterday, Zelenskyy called for a full ceasefire ahead of other discussions. The current line of fighting must be the starting point for negotiations, he said.
- Von der Leyen welcomed the possibility of Article 5-like security guarantees and said that Ukraine must be able to receive arms. She reiterated Europe’s position that international borders cannot be changed by force and that only Ukraine can make decisions about its territory.
- Leaders of the so-called Coalition of the Willing—a group of countries that have pledged to support Ukraine—said after a virtual summit chaired by France and the United Kingdom yesterday that they stood ready to deploy a “reassurance force” after the war ends.
Putin did not get his entire wish list but I think he got quite a bit and the United States didn’t get anything in return, so I would call [the U.S.-Russia meeting] a defeat but not a disaster.”
—CFR expert Max Boot
Across the Globe
Bolivia’s election. Centrist Senator Rodrigo Paz and right-wing former President Jorge Quiroga led the first round of Bolivia’s presidential election and will proceed to an October runoff, according to official early results. The vote marked a shift from almost twenty years of political dominance by the leftist Movement Toward Socialism party. It occurs as Bolivia is experiencing its worst economic crisis in decades.
Protests in Israel. Hundreds of thousands of people demonstrated in Tel Aviv and across the country yesterday calling for the return of Israeli hostages still held in Gaza and an end to the war. It was one of the largest protests in Israel since the war began. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the demonstrations only “harden Hamas’s stance” and further delay the release of hostages.
India’s tax cuts. Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced plans to cut consumption taxes in a measure that will cost the government some $20 billion per year, India’s IDFC First Bank estimated. It is the largest tax overhaul since 2017 and comes after Washington hit New Delhi’s products with a 50 percent tariff. The tax cuts are expected to boost the country’s gross domestic product by 0.6 percentage points in a year. Modi also encouraged Indians to buy domestically made products.
Japan’s stablecoin plan. The government plans to issue the country’s first yen-denominated stablecoin, Nikkei reported. Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies with a value pegged to a traditional asset like the U.S. dollar or gold; most are currently dollar-denominated. Individuals and companies will be able to buy and transfer Japan’s coin.
Mali’s reported coup plot. The French government pushed back on Saturday against Mali’s claim that a French embassy staffer had been involved in a coup plot. Malian authorities arrested the staffer and a group of Malian military and civilian personnel on Thursday but provided few details about the alleged plot. The junta has been cracking down on dissent after a pro-democracy rally in May.
Trump on China tariffs. The United States will refrain from raising tariffs on Chinese goods due to China’s oil purchases from Russia, Trump said Friday. He already increased tariffs on India for the same reason but said that in the wake of his Friday meeting with Putin, such a decision for China would not be warranted “right now.”
Myanmar’s planned vote. Multi-phase general elections will begin on December 28, marking the first vote since the military took power in a 2021 coup. The party that won two elections prior to the coup will not be permitted to run. The UN special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar in June called plans for elections a “mirage of an election exercise.”
U.S.-South Korea drills. The countries began annual defensive military drills today to practice responding to threats including a nuclear-armed North Korea. Pyongyang said the drills would increase regional tensions and pledged to respond to “any provocation.” South Korea’s new President Lee Jae-myung is preparing for a summit with Trump in Washington next week.
What’s Next
- Today, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is visiting India.
- Today, the U.S. Open tennis tournament begins in New York City.
- Today, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian begins a visit to Armenia.
- Tomorrow, the UN Security Council debates conflict-related sexual violence in New York.