New CFR Book by Liana Fix Examines Germany’s Return to Military Power 

“The transformation of Germany from ‘civilian power’ to a key military power in Europe is one of the defining stories of the still young twenty-first century. Germany’s trajectory serves as a prism through which the most consequential developments of a new era come into focus,” writes Liana Fix, senior fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), in her new book, Germany Rearmed: The Return of War and the End of Illusions. “How Germany navigates this moment will shape not only its own future but the future of the continent.” 

Germany’s rearmament also takes place at a time of upheaval for Europe and the transatlantic alliance, Fix warns. With the far right on the rise, she addresses the likelihood of Germany assuming a greater military role without reviving old fears among its neighbors. Moreover, Fix discusses whether Germany can become a credible security provider as Russian aggression against Europe escalates and the United States reorients its foreign policy toward other regions. 

Fix outlines six possible pathways for a rearmed Germany that range from “best-case scenarios—such as a European defense alliance that can fill the gap of U.S. disengagement in Europe—to worst-case scenarios such as the disintegration of European security or the return of a nationalistic Germany.” Three factors, she argues, will determine the path Germany takes: the future U.S. role in Europe, the success of European cooperation to build on a new defense architecture, and German leaders’ prevention of the further rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany. 

“Liana’s analysis of Germany’s rearmament arrives at a pivotal moment for Europe and the transatlantic alliance,” said CFR President Michael Froman. “This book is invaluable for understanding the implications of Germany’s rearmament for European security and the United States.” 

According to Fix, the “myth of pacifism” defined Germany’s foreign policy identity for almost eighty years, even as the country participated in the Yugoslav wars and deployed troops in Afghanistan. “Germany did not actually become a pacifist country after World War II,” Fix argues. “In reality, military power did not disappear from Germany; it was used pragmatically as a political tool by leaders who often understood the necessity of hard power, at least in private.” 

The Zeitenwende, or “changing of the times,” began days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when then German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced weapon deliveries for Ukraine and a special fund to raise German defense spending. However, the changes were delayed for more than three years, as “the threat from Russia seemed manageable for as long as the promise of U.S. protection remained intact,” Fix writes. “But the election of Donald Trump raised doubts about the U.S. commitment to NATO, and Berlin had to plan urgently for the worst-case scenario: a collapse of deterrence against Russia. Two months after Trump’s inauguration, the German Bundestag voted in favor of amending the German constitution to end the so-called ‘debt brake’ for defense spending.” Since then, Germany has become the largest military spender in Europe and the fourth-largest worldwide.  

“This book is an incisive assessment of Germany’s return to military power and Europe’s security amid increased Russian aggression and diminished U.S. reliability,” said CFR Senior Vice President of Studies Shannon K. O’Neil. “Liana’s work provides crucial insight into how Germany can become a military power capable of protecting Europe.”   

“Germany’s story is also a warning for the West,” Fix writes. “Few countries capture so precisely the illusions the West has often indulged since the end of the Cold War. History did not end, nor has the world become a reflection of the West through globalization and democratization. Germany’s reckoning with its myths is also part of a broader reckoning with the West’s illusions: no order, however rules-based or liberal, can sustain itself without the power to defend it.”