
Conflict Between India and Pakistan
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Asia
Significant
Worsening
Interstate
Recent Developments
With continued violence in Kashmir and a heightened threat of terrorist activity by Pakistan-based militant groups, tensions and concerns over a serious military confrontation between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan remain high. In August 2019, following a deployment of tens of thousands of additional troops and paramilitary forces to the region, the Indian government moved to revoke Article 370 of the Indian constitution, removing the special status of Jammu and Kashmir. India-administered Kashmir remains under lockdown, with internet and phone services intermittently cutoff and thousands of people detained.
In February 2019, an attack on a convoy of Indian paramilitary forces in Indian-controlled Kashmir killed at least forty soldiers. The attack, claimed by Pakistani militant group Jaish-e-Mohammad, was the deadliest attack in Kashmir in three decades. Two weeks later, India claimed to have conducted air strikes targeting a terrorist training camp inside Pakistani territory. Pakistan retaliated a day later with air strikes in Indian-administered Kashmir. The exchange escalated into an aerial engagement, during which Pakistan shot down two Indian military aircraft and captured an Indian pilot; the pilot was released two days later.
Background
Territorial disputes over the Kashmir region sparked two of the three major Indo-Pakistani wars in 1947 and 1965, and a limited war in 1999. Although both countries have maintained a fragile cease-fire since 2003, they regularly exchange fire across the contested border, known as the Line of Control. Both sides accuse the other of violating the cease-fire and claim to be shooting in response to attacks. An uptick in border skirmishes that began in late 2016 and continued into 2018 killed dozens and displaced thousands of civilians on both sides of the Line of Control.
In 2014, after India’s then newly elected Prime Minister Modi invited then Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to attend his inauguration, there were hopes that Modi's government would pursue meaningful peace negotiations with Pakistan. However, after a brief period of optimism, relations turned sour once more when India canceled talks with Pakistan’s foreign minister in August 2014 after the Pakistani high commissioner in India met with Kashmiri separatist leaders. A series of openings continued throughout 2015, including an unscheduled December meeting on the sidelines of the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris. This led to a meeting between national security advisors in Bangkok a few days later, where the Kashmir dispute was discussed. Later in December, Prime Minister Modi made a surprise visit to Lahore to meet with Prime Minister Sharif, the first visit of an Indian leader to Pakistan in more than a decade.
Momentum toward meaningful talks came to an end in September 2016, when armed militants attacked a remote Indian Army base in Uri, near the Line of Control, killing eighteen Indian soldiers in the deadliest attack on the Indian armed forces in decades. Indian officials accused Jaish-e-Mohammad, a group with alleged ties to the Inter-Services Intelligence—Pakistan’s main intelligence agency—of being behind the attack. Later in September 2016, the Indian military announced it had carried out “surgical strikes” on terrorist camps inside Pakistani-controlled territory across the Line of Control, while the Pakistani military denied that any such operation had taken place.
Militants launched attacks in October 2017, against an Indian paramilitary camp near Srinagar, and in February 2018, against an Indian army base in the Jammu region, which killed five soldiers and a civilian. These attacks came amidst a period of increased cross-border shelling along the Line of Control, with more than three thousand reported violations in 2017 and nearly one thousand in the first half of 2018. Violent demonstrations and anti-India protests calling for an independent Kashmir also continued; over three hundred people including civilians, Indian security forces, and militants were killed in attacks and clashes in 2017. After months of Indian military operations targeting both Kashmiri militants and demonstrations, India announced in May 2018 that it would observe a cease-fire in Kashmir during the month of Ramadan for the first time in nearly two decades; operations resumed in June 2018. In May 2018, India and Pakistan agreed to a cease-fire along the disputed Kashmir border that would restore the terms of their 2003 agreement.
The diversion of jihadi fighters and proxy groups from Afghanistan to Kashmir threatens to further increase violence along the border. If another Mumbai 2008-style attack, where Lashkar-e-Taiba fighters rampaged through the city for four days, killing 164 people, were carried out by Pakistan’s militant proxies, it could trigger a severe military confrontation between the two nuclear-armed states.
Concerns
The United States has identified South Asia as an epicenter of terrorism and religious extremism and therefore has an interest in ensuring regional stability, preventing nuclear weapons proliferation, and minimizing the potential of a nuclear war between India and Pakistan.
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Conflict Between India and Pakistan

Conflict Between India and Pakistan





Background Articles
Nishank Motwani War on the Rocks January 6, 2020
Michael Kugelman Foreign Policy December 31, 2019
S. Khan Deutsche Welle December 30, 2019
Zafar Dar Diplomat December 18, 2019
Abby Pokraka Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation November 26, 2019
Toby Dalton and Gaurav Kalwani War on the Rocks November 1, 2019
Muddasir Ali and Majid Maqbool New Humanitarian October 21, 2019
Sameer Yasir and Jeffrey Gettleman New York Times October 15, 2019
Niha Masih, Joanna Slater, and Shams Irfan Washington Post September 30, 2019
Jeffrey Gettleman and Atul Loke New York Times September 30, 2019
Sadanand Dhume Atlantic September 5, 2019
Aditi Malik and Shivaji Mukherjee Washington Post August 14, 2019
Melissa Dalton and Hajib Shah Center for Strategic and International Studies August 12, 2019
Vindu Goel New York Times August 5, 2019
Michael Kugelman Foreign Policy August 5, 2019
Sameeer Yasir and Kai Shultz New York Times July 6, 2019
Nuclear Crisis Group June 2019
Happymon Jacob, Tamanna Salikuddin, and George Perkovich Carnegie Endowment for International Peace May 30, 2019
Sameer Lalwani and Eyal Hanfling Diplomat May 1, 2019
Christopher Snedden National Bureau of Asian Research April 9, 2019
Arzan Tarapore War on the Rocks March 11, 2019
Vindu Goel New York Times March 8, 2019
Srinath Raghavan Carnegie India March 6, 2019
Joanna Slater and Pamela Constable Washington Post February 26, 2019
Laurel Miller International Crisis Group February 22, 2019
Sameer Lalwani and Emily Tallo War on the Rocks February 20, 2019
BBC February 15, 2019
Faseeh Mangi, Chris Kay, and Archana Chaudhary Bloomberg January 25, 2019
Khalid Shah Observer Research Foundation January 22, 2019
Joanna Slater and Ishfaq Naseem Washington Post December 23, 2018
Moeed Yusuf Foreign Policy December 10, 2018
Sameer Lalwani and Emily Tallo Foreign Policy November 30, 2018
Stephen Tankel War on the Rocks November 26, 2018
Christophe Jaffrelot Carnegie Endowment for International Peace October 24, 2018
Maria Abi-Habib New York Times September 4, 2018
Monica Sarkar CNN August 15, 2018
Fahad Shah The Diplomat July 10, 2018
Sudha Ramachandran Jamestown Foundation June 2, 2018
Maria Abi-Habib and Hari Kumar New York Times May 30, 2018
Economist May 12, 2018
Ahmer Khan The Diplomat April 4, 2018
Qadri Inzamam and Haziq Qadri The Diplomat March 20, 2018
Michael Krepon Arms Control Wonk January 30, 2018
Sameer Lalwani and Hannah Haegeland The Diplomat January 11, 2018
Riyaz Wani The Diplomat December 20, 2017
Bill Roggio and Phil Hegseth Long War Journal October 13, 2017
Ashley Tellis Carnegie Endowment for International Peace September 20, 2017
Economist August 17, 2017
Bennet Seftel The Cipher Brief August 17, 2017
Sameer Lalwani and Travis Wheeler War on the Rocks August 7, 2017
Max Rodenbeck Economist July 22, 2017
Shamil Shams Deutsche Welle May 26, 2017
Michael Safi Economist May 25, 2017
Judith Matloff Forbes April 26, 2017
Sumit Ganguly Foreign Affairs April 21, 2017
Max Fisher New York Times March 31, 2017
Toby Dalton and George Perkovich Herald January 23, 2017
Michael Krepon Foreign Affairs January 16, 2017
Moeed Yusuf War on the Rocks November 29, 2016
Sajid Farid Shapoo The Diplomat November 16, 2016
Rozina Ali New Yorker November 2, 2016
Will Edwards The Cipher Brief November 1, 2016
Michael Kugelman Foreign Policy September 30, 2016
Sameer Lalwani Foreign Affairs September 25, 2016
George Perkovich Foreign Affairs September 21, 2016
Ayesha Ray War on the Rocks September 14, 2016
Raymond Zhong Wall Street Journal September 11, 2016
Maria Savel World Politics Review August 18, 2016
The Economist August 13, 2016
Al Jazeera
Latest CFR Analysis
Aparna Pande, Stephen Tankel, Ashutosh Varshney, and James Astill CFR Event November 19, 2019
Alyssa Ayres and James M. Lindsay CFR Podcast, “The President’s Inbox” August 14, 2019
Richard N. Haass Project Syndicate August 14, 2019
Lindsay Maizland CFR In Brief August 7, 2019
Sumit Ganguly and Irinia Faskianos CFR Conference Call April 9, 2019
Alyssa Ayres CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” April 4, 2019
Alyssa Ayres, Farooq Kathwari, Vipin Narang, and Daniel Markey CFR Event March 25, 2019
Alyssa Ayres and Robert McMahon CFR Podcast, “The President’s Inbox” March 12, 2019
Lindsay Maizland CFR Article March 1, 2019
Alyssa Ayres The Print February 27, 2019
Alyssa Ayres CNN February 15, 2019
Alyssa Ayres CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” June 27, 2017
Alyssa Ayres CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” September 29, 2016
Alyssa Ayres CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” September 26, 2016
CFR's Asia Program CFR Symposium May 2016
Alyssa Ayres War on the Rocks January 7, 2016
Eleanor Albert CFR Backgrounder
CFR Independent Task Force Report November 2015
Zachary Laub CFR Backgrounder
CFR Timeline
Alyssa Ayres CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” August 25, 2015
Primary Sources
Imran Khan New York Times August 30, 2019
High Commission of India, Islamabad, Pakistan
Pakistan Mission to the United Nations
U.S. National Counterterrorism Center
Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India September 29, 2013