
North Korea Crisis
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Recent Developments
In early 2018, North and South Korea began a diplomatic rapprochement, and North Korean officials attended the Opening Ceremony of the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. On April 27, a week after announcing that North Korea would freeze weapons and missile testing, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un stepped across the border into South Korea for a summit with South Korean President Moon Jae-in. The leaders signed a joint statement pledging to work toward denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and an official end to war between the two countries.
There has also been a marked change in U.S. policy toward North Korea. In June 2018, President Donald J. Trump and Kim Jong-un met in Singapore and released a joint statement about denuclearization. The leaders met again in Vietnam in late February 2019, but ended the summit early without making a deal or announcement.
Background
North Korea (officially called the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) is isolated, impoverished, and a proclaimed enemy of its southern neighbor, South Korea—an important U.S. ally.
U.S. military involvement in the Korean peninsula has its roots in the Korean War of the early 1950s during the early stages of the Cold War, in which the United States supported forces in the southern part of the peninsula against communist forces in the north, who were aided militarily by China and the Soviet Union. Today, the United States is committed to defending South Korea (also known as the Republic of Korea) under the terms of the Mutual Defense Treaty between the United States and the Republic of Korea. The United States has nearly 29,000 troops deployed in the Korean peninsula for that purpose. In addition to U.S. troops, many of South Korea’s 630,000 troops and North Korea’s 1.2 million troops are stationed near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), making it one of the most heavily armed borders in the world.
In violation of UN Security Council resolutions, North Korea continues overt nuclear enrichment and long-range missile development efforts. Although the scale of North Korea’s uranium enrichment program remains uncertain, U.S. intelligence agencies estimate that it has enough plutonium to produce at least six nuclear weapons, and possibly up to sixty.
In September 2017, North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear weapons test, its most powerful test to date. As with previous tests in 2016, it again claimed to have developed a hydrogen, or thermonuclear, bomb, which would represent further advancements in the nuclear program and the ability to build more powerful, higher-yield nuclear weapons. Since February 2017, North Korea has conducted sixteen missile tests with a total of twenty-three missiles, including a missile that it says can carry a nuclear warhead. Four of the missiles failed. In early July 2017, the country conducted its first successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Three weeks later, it tested another ICBM that experts believe could reach the continental United States. In August 2017, U.S. intelligence agencies determined that North Korea can miniaturize its nuclear weapons to fit inside a missile, which North Korea had already claimed it could do in March 2016. In November 2017, North Korea conducted the first test of a previously unseen missile, reportedly its largest ICBM yet, the Hwasong-15. However, North Korea has not yet demonstrated that its nuclear warheads can withstand reentry into Earth’s atmosphere.
In response to the increasing frequency of missile tests, the United States has deployed an anti-missile system in South Korea. The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system is located in the Seongju region of South Korea, one hundred and fifty-five miles from the northern border.
The United States, South Korea, and Japan have each passed their own unilateral sanctions against North Korea, targeting companies involved in North Korean missile and nuclear weapons development, high-ranking individuals, and sources of income for the North Korean government. Following the second ICBM, in August 2017 the UN Security Council unanimously passed its harshest sanctions yet on North Korea, targeting some of the most important sources of revenue for the regime including North Korean exports and banning the country from sending more workers abroad. In November 2017, the United States placed North Korea back on a list of state sponsors of terrorism, a move that enables additional sanctions to be placed on the regime.
Kim Jong-un’s willingness to provoke the West with aggressive behavior has exacerbated the threat from North Korea’s weapons proliferation. These incitements have included firing missiles over northern Japanese islands, firing rockets across the South Korean border in August 2015, and a cyberattack on U.S.-based Sony Pictures in December 2014.
Kim has also undertaken efforts to consolidate his power by purging high-ranking officials, including his own family members. In February 2017, Kim's half-brother was killed using a banned nerve agent in an airport in Malaysia. North Korea denies responsibility for the attack. There are reportedly between 80,000 and 120,000 political prisoners detained in North Korea. This consolidation of power may suggest that Kim, fearing fewer internal challenges to his control, is increasingly unconstrained domestically in making policy decisions.
Concerns
North Korea is a nuclear power with a complex relationship with China, and preventing both an interstate Korean war and a North Korean internal collapse are critical U.S. national security interests. Along with continued weapons and missile tests, small-scale military and cyber provocations by North Korea pose significant risks as each incident carries with it the potential for further and potentially uncontrollable escalation. Outright threats from North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un are also cause for concern, as he claims that North Korean weapons can now reach U.S. territories and even the U.S. mainland.
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Background Articles
Van Jackson United States Institute of Peace September 3, 2020
Gabriela Bernal Diplomat August 6, 2020
Duyeon Kim International Crisis Group July 7, 2020
Jina Kim Diplomat June 23, 2020
Katrin Fraser Katz and Victor Cha Foreign Affairs May 14, 2020
Kathryn Botto Carnegie Endowment for International Peace April 14, 2020
Chung Min Lee and Kathryn Botto Carnegie Endowment for International Peace March 18, 2020
Esther S. Im and Andray Ambrahamian 38 North February 20, 2020
Christopher J. Watterson War on the Rocks January 24, 2020
Duyeon Kim International Crisis Group December 30, 2019
Center for Nonproliferation Studies December 3, 2019
Uri Friedman Atlantic November 29, 2019
Mirko Tasic Diplomat November 13, 2019
Center for Strategic and International Studies November 6, 2019
Choe Sang-Hun New York Times October 31, 2019
Joseph Bermudez, Victor Cha, and Dana Kim Beyond Parallel October 9, 2019
Van Jackson Center for a New American Security September 24, 2019
Jean H. Lee Wilson Center August 6, 2019
Sharon Shi and Clément Bürge Wall Street Journal July 27, 2019
Ankit Panda Diplomat July 24, 2019
International Crisis Group June 24, 2019
Mary Beth D. Nikitin Congressional Research Service June 6, 2019
Dianne E. Rennack Congressional Research Service June 6, 2019
Frank V. Pabian, Jack Liu, and Jenny Town 38 North June 5, 2019
Patrick Tucker Defense One June 4, 2019
Kelsey Davenport Arms Control Association June 2019
Joseph Bermudez and Victor Cha Beyond Parallel May 9, 2019
David E. Sanger and Choe Sang-Hun New York Times April 17, 2019
David Brunnstrom Reuters April 16, 2019
Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang Foreign Affairs March 5, 2019
David E. Sanger and Edward Wong New York Times March 2, 2019
Victor Cha and Katrin Fraser Katz Foreign Affairs February 22, 2019
Joseph Bermudez, Victor Cha, and Lisa Collins Beyond Parallel February 15, 2019
Michael E. O’Hanlon, Jung H. Pak, and Evans J.R. Revere Brookings Institution February 8, 2019
Bruce W. Jentleson War on the Rocks February 7, 2019
Robert E. Kelly War on the Rocks February 5, 2019
Joseph Bermudez, Victor Cha, and Lisa Collins Beyond Parallel January 21, 2019
RAND Corporation January 11, 2019
Niharika Mandhana Wall Street Journal November 28, 2018
Ankit Panda Foreign Affairs November 19, 2018
Joseph Bermudez, Victor Cha and Lisa Collins Center for Strategic and International Studies November 12, 2018
Arms Control Association October 2018
Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang Foreign Affairs August 13, 2018
Bruce E. Bechtol, Jr. Foreign Affairs June 6, 2018
Katharine H.S. Moon Reuters June 4, 2018
Victor Cha and Katrin Fraser Katz Foreign Affairs June 1, 2018
Nuclear Threat Initiative June 2018
Michael J. Mazarr, Gian Gentile, Dan Madden, Stacie L. Pettyjohn, and Yvonne K. Crane RAND Corporation May 30, 2018
Robert Jervis and Mira Rapp-Hooper Foreign Affairs May/June 2018
Anthony H. Cordesman Center for Strategic & International Studies May 24, 2018
Mike Chinoy Cipher Brief May 18, 2018
Matt Spetalnick, David Brunnstrom, and John Walcott Reuters April 26, 2018
Michael Kovrig and Christopher Green International Crisis Group March 30, 2018
Joby Warrick and Julie Vitkovskaya Washington Post March 8, 2018
Jenna McLaughlin Foreign Policy February 15, 2018
Mark Lander and Helene Cooper New York Times February 1, 2018
International Crisis Group January 23, 2018
Hans M. Kristensen and Robert S. Norris Bulletin of Atomic Scientists January 8, 2018
Jung H. Pak Brookings Institution January 2018
David E. Sanger and William J. Broad New York Times January 6, 2018
Joby Warwick Washington Post December 10, 2017
Ankit Panda The Diplomat December 6, 2017
Siegfried S. Hecker Foreign Affairs December 4, 2017
Hyun-Kyung Kim, Elizabeth Philipp, and Hattie Chung Belfer Center October 2017
David E. Sanger, David D. Kirkpatrick, and Nicole Perlroth New York Times October 15, 2017
Jamestown Foundation October 2017
Nicholas Kristof New York Times October 5, 2017
Adam Mount The Atlantic September 22, 2017
Ankit Panda and Vipin Narang War on the Rocks September 4, 2017
Mark Bowden The Atlantic July 2017
Barry Pavel and Robert A. Manning Atlantic Council Jun 27, 2017
John Sifton CNN June 26, 2017
Populations at Risk Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
Bonnie Berkowitz, Laris Karklis, and Tim Meko The Washington Post May 18, 2017
Uri Friedman The Atlantic May 17, 2017
Jonathan D. Pollack The Brookings Institution May 17, 2017
Alex Ward Vox May 15, 2017
Choe Sang-Hun New York Times May 4, 2017
Joshua Stanton, Sung-Yoon Lee, and Bruce Klingner Foreign Affairs April 20, 2017
Sung-Yoon Lee Foreign Affairs January 18, 2017
Scott A. Snyder Forbes January 4, 2017
Ralph Savelsberg and James Kiessling 38 North December 20, 2016
Dan De Luce Foreign Policy October 6, 2016
Jonathan D. Pollack Brookings Institution September 9, 2016
US Korea Institute At SAIS July 25, 2016
Joshua Hunt Foreign Policy May 4, 2016
David F. Helvey Center for Strategic & International Studies March 14, 2016
Mercy A. Kuo and Angelica O. Tang The Diplomat March 9, 2016
BBC February 7, 2016
Latest CFR Analysis
Eleanor Albert CFR Backgrounder October 13, 2020
Jina Kim, Kathleen Stephens, Susan A. Thornton, and Scott A. Snyder CFR Virtual Event September 22, 2020
Scott A. Snyder CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” June 26, 2020
Scott A. Snyder CFR Blog, “Strength Through Peace” June 15, 2020
Scott A. Snyder Contingency Planning Memorandum Update June 4, 2020
Jooeun Kim CFR Blog, “Strength Through Peace” January 15, 2020
Jongsoo Lee CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” January 6, 2020
Scott A. Snyder CFR In Brief November 26, 2019
Scott A. Snyder CFR In Brief October 8, 2019
Adam Mount CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” August 27, 2019
Michael F. Oppenheimer CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” July 23, 2019
Duyeon Kim CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” July 17, 2019
Eleanor Albert CFR Backgrounder July 16, 2019
Peter Huessy CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” July 8, 2019
Christopher J. Watterson CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” July 3, 2019
Scott A. Snyder CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” July 1, 2019
Eleanor Albert CFR Backgrounder June 25, 2019
Eric Brewer CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” May 30, 2019
Scott A. Snyder CFR In Brief April 29, 2019
Patrick M. Cronin CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” April 23, 2019
Joshua Kurlantzick, Scott A. Snyder, and Paul B. Stares CFR Conference Call February 28, 2019
Scott Snyder CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” February 26, 2019
James M. Lindsay and Sue Mi Terry CFR Podcast, “The President’s Inbox” February 26, 2019
Victor D. Cha, Rebecca K. Hersman, Scott A. Snyder, and Mark W. Lippert CFR Event February 21, 2019
Scott A. Snyder Forbes February 13, 2019
CPA Blog, “Strength Through Peace” January 16, 2019
Scott Snyder CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” December 31, 2018
Scott A. Snyder CFR Article November 28, 2018
Richard Haass Project Syndicate October 22, 2018
Scott A. Snyder CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” October 2, 2018
Scott A. Snyder CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” September 24, 2018
CFR Timeline
Scott A. Snyder CFR Article September 19, 2018
The World Next Week CFR Podcast September 13, 2018
Scott A. Snyder CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” September 6, 2018
Patricia M. Kim, Gary Samore, Sheila A. Smith, and J. Stapleton Roy CFR Event June 13, 2018
Scott A. Snyder CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” June 12, 2018
Melissa Hanham and Eleanor Albert CFR Interview May 30, 2018
Richard N. Haass Foreign Affairs May 25, 2018
Patricia M. Kim CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” May 10, 2018
Sheila A. Smith CFR Expert Brief May 9, 2018
Scott A. Snyder CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” April 27, 2018
Victor D. Cha and Mike G. Mullen CFR Event April 9, 2018
Sheila A. Smith Foreign Affairs March 14, 2018
Scott A. Snyder CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” March 9, 2018
Patrick McEachern CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” March 5, 2018
Scott Snyder CFR Expert Brief March 2, 2018
Patricia M. Kim CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” November 1, 2017
Paul B. Stares The Hill October 1, 2017
Scott Snyder CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” September 22, 2017
Scott Snyder Forbes September 3, 2017
Scott Snyder The Hill August 10, 2017
Sheila A. Smith CFR Expert Brief July 6, 2017
Guest blogger for Scott A. Snyder CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” June 20, 2017
Sheila A. Smith CFR Expert Brief May 8, 2017
Scott Snyder CFR blog, “Asia Unbound” May 3, 2017
Elliott Abrams, Sheila Smith, Alina Polyakova, and Tiffany McGriff CFR Event April 29, 2017
James M. Lindsay CFR Podcast, “The President’s Inbox” April 11, 2017
Robert L. Gallucci, Mary Beth Long, Sue Mi Terry, and Mitchel B. Wallerstein CFR Event March 13, 2017
International Institutions and Global Governance Program CFR Global Governance Monitor
Paul B. Stares 38 North December 16, 2016
Council of Councils CFR 2016 Report Card on International Cooperation May 2016
Scott A. Snyder CNN April 26, 2016
Scott Snyder CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” May 12, 2016
Sungtae “Jacky” Park Center for Strategic & International Studies March 30, 2016
Scott A. Snyder CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” March 2, 2016
Sungtae “Jacky” Park National Interest February 13, 2016
Scott Snyder Washington Examiner January 18, 2016
Amy Nelson CFR Interview January 12, 2016
Scott A. Snyder CFR Blog, “Asia Unbound” January 6, 2016
Scott A. Snyder CFR Policy Innovation Memorandum November 2015
CFR Interactive
Primary Sources
Cheong Wa Dae September 19, 2018
International Atomic Energy Agency August 20, 2018
Victor Cha and Joseph Y. Yun U.S. Senate Committee on Foreign Relations June 5, 2018
U.S. Department of State July 4, 2017
Department of Defense June 21, 2017
Department of State April 28, 2017
International Atomic Energy Agency
U.S. Department of the Treasury
United Nations Security Council March 7, 2013
United Nations Security Council January 23, 2013
U.S. Department of State September 19, 2005
CFR Experts

General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention and Director of the Center for Preventive Action