Middle East Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and U.S. Southern Border Are Top Global Concerns for 2025, CFR Report Finds

Middle East Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, and U.S. Southern Border Are Top Global Concerns for 2025, CFR Report Finds

January 7, 2025 4:30 pm (EST)

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The second Donald Trump administration assumes office at a moment of great peril for the United States, according to the Council on Foreign Relations’ (CFR) annual Preventive Priorities Survey. The results revealed five conflict-related scenarios that experts deemed highly likely to emerge or escalate and to have high impact on U.S. interests. This is the largest number of high likelihood and high impact contingencies since the survey began in 2008. 

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The survey found that experts are most concerned by scenarios that involve the worsening of ongoing conflicts in the Middle East. Those conflicts include the Israel-Hamas war, clashes between Israeli security forces and Palestinians, and hostilities between Iran and Israel. 

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Experts also warn of possible Russian military gains and decreased foreign assistance to Ukraine causing a Russia-Ukraine cease-fire in favor of Russia, and the potential deployment of U.S. security forces to the southern border creating a crisis among migrants and heightening tensions with Mexico.

Conducted by CFR’s Center for Preventive Action (CPA) every November, the survey asks foreign policy experts to evaluate thirty ongoing or potential violent conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring or escalating this year, as well as their possible impact on U.S. interests. Unlike forecasting tools, the Preventive Priorities Survey aims to help policymakers prioritize competing conflict prevention and crisis mitigation demands.  

“The United States is facing the most complex international environment since the dawn of the Cold War,” said CFR President Michael Froman. “Amid this uncertainty, the Preventive Priorities Survey is a critical tool for policymakers to anticipate and triage the growing and complex array of threats to U.S. interests around the world.” 

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Surveyed experts are also concerned about scenarios that include failed international stabilization efforts in Haiti, accelerated state collapse in Lebanon, and increased military provocations and influence operations by Russia. 

“The possibility that the United States could find itself in wars with not one but two major, nuclear-armed powers simultaneously is very real,” said Paul B. Stares, CPA director and General John W. Vessey senior fellow for conflict prevention. “The stakes today, in other words, cannot be overstated.” 

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Middle East

The War in Ukraine

Immigration and Migration

View the full results and prior surveys.

To learn more or to request an interview, please contact the Global Communications and Media Relations team at 212.434.9888 or [email protected]

The Preventive Priorities Survey was made possible by a generous grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York.

CFR’s Center for Preventive Action seeks to help prevent, defuse, or resolve deadly conflicts around the world and to expand the body of knowledge on conflict prevention. Follow CPA on X @CFR CPA

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