Ukraine’s Struggle for Independence in Russia’s Shadow

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) welcomes Ukraine into its Partnership for Peace, a collaborative arrangement open to all non-NATO European countries and post-Soviet states. Ukraine and Hungary become the fifth and sixth members of the partnership. Russia becomes a member that June and conducts various cooperative activities with NATO, including joint military exercises, until 2014, when NATO formally suspends ties. As the Cold War ended, Russia had opposed the eastern expansion of NATO. However, thirteen former partnership members eventually join the alliance.

Former Prime Minister Leonid Kuchma defeats incumbent President Leonid Kravchuk. It is the first time an incumbent has been defeated in a presidential election in a former Soviet republic. Kuchma’s presidency is marked by slow growth, several economic crises, and charges of rampant corruption.

The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances [PDF] is signed by Russia, Ukraine, the United Kingdom (UK), and the United States, following Ukraine’s accession to the NPT as a non–nuclear weapons state. Russia, the UK, and the United States commit to respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence, and promise to not threaten or use force against Ukraine.

Russian troops invade Georgia following a Georgian military operation against a South Ossetian separatist stronghold. The invasion leads to a five-day war and results in an increased Russian presence in the breakaway Georgian republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which represent roughly one-fifth of Georgian territory. Yushchenko sides with Georgia, further increasing tensions between Kyiv and Moscow. Russia subsequently recognizes both republics as independent states, though neither is recognized as an independent state by most countries.

The EU and Ukraine begin talks on a new “association agreement” and issue a communiqué that “Ukraine’s future is in Europe.” The EU considers such agreements to be legally binding contracts that commit countries to developing closer political, legal, and trading ties with the EU and sometimes lead to accession to the bloc. Implementation of the association agreement could mean major changes in Ukraine that would bring it closer to EU standards.

Russia provokes an armed separatist movement to seize government buildings across eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. Ukrainian forces resist but are wary of sparking a much wider war, with Russian troop buildups reported along the border. By early 2022, fighting has resulted in more than fourteen thousand deaths, a quarter of them civilians, and two million internally displaced Ukrainians. Parts of two regions—Donetsk and Luhansk—declare themselves independent republics.

Petro Poroshenko, a pro-West oligarch, wins an outright majority in the first round of Ukraine’s presidential election, surprising many. Poroshenko promises to fix the economy by aligning Ukraine with Europe and to root out corruption that has trailed Ukraine since its independence. U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration signals interest in helping Poroshenko battle corruption and assigns Vice President Joe Biden as its chief envoy for Ukraine.

A Malaysia Airlines flight from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur is shot down by a surface-to-air missile over eastern Ukrainian territory controlled by Russian and Russian proxy forces, resulting in the death of all 298 people onboard. A Dutch-led investigation later finds that Russia bears responsibility, with the missile having been provided by a Russian army brigade, but Russia denies responsibility.

Russian units enter Ukraine to push back Ukrainian forces that were on the verge of regaining control of Donbas. Shortly after, negotiators conclude the first Minsk Agreement, aimed at ending the fighting. However, its terms are not implemented, and fighting continues along the line of contact.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, a television comedian and political novice, wins a presidential runoff with more than 70 percent of the vote, defeating Poroshenko. Two months later, Zelenskyy’s party also wins a majority of parliamentary seats, marking the first time since independence that Ukraine’s president has a majority party in the parliament. Zelenskyy had campaigned against corruption and poverty, and pledged to end the war in the east; many saw the vote as a rejection of Poroshenko and his failure to root out corruption.

Trump and Zelenskyy have a phone conversation that later becomes the focus of an impeachment inquiry by the U.S. Congress into abuse of power and obstruction of justice. A U.S. government whistleblower expresses concern about Trump’s alleged effort during the call to enlist Zelenskyy to investigate Biden, a leading Democratic candidate in the 2020 presidential election. In November, several former and current U.S. officials testify before lawmakers that the Trump administration postponed a Trump-Zelenskyy meeting and held up congressionally approved military assistance to get Kyiv to investigate Biden. White House officials dismiss the complaints as politically motivated, and in January 2020, Trump is acquitted in a Senate vote mostly along party lines.

Officials from Ukraine and EU member states warn about recent Russian deployments near Ukrainian border areas and in Crimea. Adding up to more than a hundred thousand troops, along with tanks, rocket launchers and other weaponry, analysts call it the largest troop buildup since Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. Biden, now U.S. president, and Putin agree to a June summit to discuss a range of contentious issues, including Ukraine, and launch dialogues on strategic stability and cybersecurity. The following month, Putin publishes an article titled “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,” in which he questions the legitimacy of Ukraine’s borders, asserts that Russians and Ukrainians are “one people,” and blames the collapse in bilateral ties on foreign plots and anti-Russia conspiracies.

The Russian energy firm Gazprom finishes construction of the Nord Stream 2, a pipeline that is set to deliver natural gas under the Baltic Sea to Germany and could cut off a major source of income for Ukraine, a current transit country. Leaders in Kyiv protest that Moscow will use the pipeline, which could double gas deliveries to the rest of Europe, as a geopolitical weapon. The Biden administration opposes the pipeline but agrees to hold off on sanctions and reaches a deal with Germany to fund alternative energy projects for Ukraine. Amid the Russian military buildup near Ukraine, Germany says a German-based firm involved in the project must take administrative steps before any gas can flow, a process that could take until mid-2022.

Ukrainian forces drive Russian troops out of several areas surrounding Kyiv, dispelling notions of a quick Russian military victory. Despite Russia’s military superiority, analysts say Ukraine’s early success is due to a combination of factors, including geographical knowledge, modern weaponry—most of which is supplied by the West—and the tactical use of smartphone devices. As Russia pulls back from the area, Ukrainian officials report potential Russian war crimes and crimes against humanity; their findings include mass graves in nearby districts such as Bucha, Irpin, and Hostomel. Zelenskyy accuses Russian forces of committing “genocide” and the International Criminal Court launches an investigation.

Ukraine launches a “lightning” counteroffensive to reclaim major cities in Russia-occupied territory in the northeast and south. Ukraine’s military liberates the southern regional city of Kherson, and in the north, troops push Russian forces back across the Dnipro River. They also recapture the region of Kharkiv, including the hubs of Balakliya, Izyum, and Kupyansk, in what is seen as a major strategic defeat for the Russian military. As Moscow faces mounting losses, Putin orders a partial mobilization of some three hundred thousand military reservists. He also announces Russia’s annexation of four Ukrainian regions, claiming the residents of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia as “our citizens forever.” Following Putin’s announcement, Zelenskyy says Ukraine is submitting an accelerated application to join NATO.

During a visit to Washington, Ukraine’s president urges U.S. lawmakers to continue providing aid and weapons to bolster Kyiv’s defenses through the winter. Since the outbreak of the war, Ukraine has become by far the largest recipient of U.S. foreign aid, the first time that a European country has held the top spot since World War II. Dozens of other countries, including most members of the EU and NATO, provide Ukraine with large aid packages [PDF] during the first year of the war. Many countries have also given Ukraine advanced weapons systems, including the United States. Zelenskyy’s Washington trip is his first out of the country since the war began and it comes as Congress debates a spending bill that includes an additional $45 billion in aid to Kyiv that is ultimately approved.

The Wagner Group and its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin stage an armed mutiny against Russian leadership, seizing military installations in the southern city of Rostov-on-Don before advancing toward Moscow. The Wagner Group has played a significant role in the war, and its troops were heavily involved in the battle for Bakhmut. While Prigozhin reaches an agreement with the Kremlin the following day, the short-lived rebellion sows momentary political chaos in Russia. Two months after the rebellion, Prigozhin and other senior Wagner leaders die in a plane crash that U.S. intelligence assessments conclude was caused by an intentional explosion. Ukrainian forces, meanwhile, have made only gradual progress so far in their attempt to retake Russian positions in the east and south.

Moscow announces that it is pulling out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, an agreement brokered by Turkey and the United Nations in July 2022 in which Russia agreed to ease its military blockade of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports to help facilitate exports of Ukrainian fertilizer, grain, and oilseed. Russia says its withdrawal is due to Western sanctions that are impeding exports of its own fertilizer and food. Russia’s exit from the deal generates alarm in many lower-income countries in Africa and the Middle East that are grappling with food insecurity and rely on Ukrainian grain. But Ukraine pivots and makes use of so-called “solidarity lanes”—alternative routes via rail, road, and rivers—that were created shortly after the war broke out and allow Kyiv to transit food through neighboring countries. However, in September, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia impose import bans on Ukrainian grain after their own farmers express concern about selling their crops.

EU leaders agree to open accession negotiations with Ukraine, marking a step forward in the country’s pursuit of membership in the bloc, though the process is expected to take several years. Zelenskyy hails the decision as a “victory” for Ukraine and Europe. The move comes amid a grinding military stalemate in the war and as political support for Ukraine falters in some Western countries, including the United States.