How Do Americans View Foreign Policy Ahead of the Midterms? 

This article was originally published on the Future of American Strategy Substack.

Last week, I traveled to Wisconsin as part of CFR’s ongoing efforts to understand what Americans think about the United States’ global role (you can read my dispatch from Maricopa County, Arizona here). I spent time in two counties—Milwaukee and Kenosha—and met nearly 100 people, from students and farmers to union members and clergy. Here are the takeaways.

Wisconsin: A Pillar of the Industrial Midwest

At the state level, Wisconsin’s economy relies on manufacturing, agriculture, and tourism—what officials call the “three-legged stool.” One in six residents is employed in manufacturing, the highest rate in the country. As the state’s largest sector, manufacturing generated nearly $75 billion in economic output last year. Wisconsin also ranks tenth in the nation in agricultural production and is home to more dairy farms than any other state. A booming tourism industry—Wisconsin saw 117 million visits in 2025—rounds out the state’s core economy. Tariffs have hit Wisconsin hard: recent analysis found that in 2025, tariffs raised costs for average Wisconsin households by $1,500, cost 6,100 manufacturing jobs, and shrank economic output by $2 billion. The intensified trade war with Canada is expected to cost America’s largest cheese producer an additional $100 million.

Milwaukee is a diverse Midwestern city, and its surrounding county is the largest by population in the state. Economically, Milwaukee County accounts for $8.9 billion in exports (roughly one-third of the state’s total) and Port Milwaukee is a gateway for international bulk cargo and agricultural products, connecting the Midwest with Canada and Europe. In recent years, an aging workforce and an exodus of young, educated people have contributed to a sustained worker shortage and muted economic growth.

Kenosha County, less than an hour’s drive to Milwaukee’s south, blends a legacy manufacturing base with suburban spillover from both Milwaukee and Chicago. Fulfillment centers break up large swaths of family farms along the interstate; soon, a nearly million-square-foot Microsoft data center may join the landscape as part of a broader buildout in the area that includes more than a dozen projects.

The divergence in voting patterns in Milwaukee and Kenosha highlights Wisconsin’s status as an electoral swing state. Milwaukee is consistently deep blue, with Democrats winning the county by 36 points or more in each of the last three presidential elections. Kenosha, meanwhile, has steadily shifted to the right: in 2016, Trump carried the county by 0.3 points, while in 2024 he won by more than six. This year’s midterms contain several tight races, including for the governorship, where Democratic Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley leads Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany by roughly three points. How counties like Kenosha vote will play a large role in who takes up residence in the governor’s mansion.

Six Takeaways From Kenosha and Milwaukee Counties

1. Wisconsin is fed up with tariffs

Tariffs were pervasive in our discussions and linked to affordability. Sentiment toward tariffs was almost universally negative, with only one business owner noting positive effects on his steel company. Many Wisconsinites—whether from business or church groups—connected the dots between tariffs, increased input costs for companies, and the resultant increase in consumer prices. “You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to see that the decisions are senseless,” one participant in Kenosha lamented. Numerous participants echoed this sentiment, expressing their frustration that those making trade policy do not understand its impact on working people.

2. Immigration crackdowns compound the tariff pain

In Wisconsin, immigration policy is an economic issue, affecting manufacturing, agriculture, and tourism alike. Organized labor, private business owners, and government officials lamented a shortage of skilled and unskilled workers as a drag on economic growth across industries. Following on tariffs, businesses have experienced the turn to more restrictive immigration policies and more aggressive enforcement as a one-two punch that harms their bottom lines. “When trade stabilized, then immigration made it hard. All we did was get squeezed,” said a local business leader.

3. Fix things at home before fighting abroad

Many Wisconsinites struggled to understand the logic behind the war with Iran. Those initially in favor of the war were discouraged by its failure to achieve its stated aims along the promised timeline. And the effect on fuel prices is acutely felt: “It’s really painful,” said one farmer of high diesel costs. Anti-war sentiment went beyond Iran, however: several participants also questioned aid to Ukraine and Israel, given the extent of needs at home. Expressing the sense that the United States is now overextended, one man proclaimed: “We’re taxed out and maxed out!” Others offered metaphors to emphasize the importance of domestic priorities. As one farmer put it, “you cannot pour from an empty vessel, and right now we’re empty”; in another conversation, a Kenosha church congregant queried, “if you don’t take care of what’s in your home first, how can you take care of someone else’s home?”

4. Good friends are America’s advantage

Support for alliances was strong across groups, with participants expressing concern about the prospect of “America alone.” America’s network of friends, sustained by a strong American “brand,” was seen as a source of power that is being squandered. Wisconsinites expressed particular support for Canada, noting that our northern neighbor is supposed to be “our closest friend” and we should not be “kicking them in the teeth.” Even so, not all friends are considered equal. We heard incredulity about Washington’s apparent alignment with authoritarian states like Russia and China. And there was at least one participant in nearly every group who expressed deep disapproval of U.S. military support for Israel, with few offering a countervailing view.

5. Optimism on AI, with caveats

Despite a recent moratorium on data centers in Milwaukee and another proposed in Kenosha, organized labor was generally bullish about new economic opportunities generated by the AI buildout—so long as it’s done responsibly. For their part, manufacturing business figures expressed enthusiasm about AI adoption in their companies. Whether this boon is sustainable, though, is an open question: in a labor leader’s words, “everything but AI” has been trending downward, and unions representing certain trades felt that AI projects have crowded out other construction opportunities.

6. China is an economic rival first

Wisconsinites tended to view China as an economic rival, if not an outright threat to the United States. Those involved in heavy manufacturing have seen China’s unfair trade practices play out “on the factory floor” and tended to view the Chinese government as an economic competitor that aims to undercut their businesses. While some business leaders we engaged have pulled operations out of China or aim to do so, others maintain parts of their supply chains there—with some expressing the view that, unlike a decade ago, Chinese manufacturing in certain sectors now beats American products on price and matches on quality. More broadly, we heard participants describe China as a danger to American values and democracy around the world, yet few characterized Beijing as an outright security threat. They noted that Beijing is already a world leader but, due to its authoritarian nature, expressed some concern about what might happen if China became the world leader.

Wisconsin vs. Arizona: How Do They Compare?

Americans in Wisconsin and Arizona shared many concerns, anchored foremost in anxieties about affordability and the ways Washington’s foreign policy choices seem to be raising costs. We also heard echoes of past conversations in the emphasis Wisconsinites placed on the United States’ loss of respect, a sense of embarrassment about our country’s behavior on the global stage, and a desire to see a clearer return on investment when it comes to American engagement around the world. Many citizens are newly attentive to foreign policy but feel overwhelmed by the velocity of global events and ignored by political leaders in Washington—“it feels like shaking your fist at the clouds,” said one executive. As our conversations in Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, and Georgia have shown, Americans are keen to share their views on the future of America’s global role, and grateful to feel like someone is finally listening.

More from the Future of American Strategy Initiative’s engagements around the United States:

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