On the latest episode of The President’s Inbox, Jim sat down with Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder and chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator, co-founder and former chief technology officer of the cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike, and author of World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century, to discuss the geopolitical rivalry between China and the United States, its impact on U.S. interests, and how the United States should respond.

Here are three highlights from their conversation:

1) The United States and China are locked in a second Cold War. Today, both countries are competing for global dominance in arms, trade, technology, and influence. Dmitri argues this new Cold War began in 2014 with China’s abandonment of its “hide-your-strength” doctrine and Xi Jinping’s shift to a more aggressive foreign policy. Since then, China has increased its conventional and nuclear forces, expanded its influence abroad through the Belt and Road Initiative, and intensified its efforts to steal intellectual property. The United States has responded by securing military alliances in the Indo-Pacific, seeking to limit China’s economic advantages, and restricting Chinese access to advanced technology. Dmitri explained: “You have a global competition for supremacy that’s playing out in every single corner of the world.” While this new Cold War may not be a fight for ideological dominance like the first Cold War was, where the collapse of the Soviet Union marked the assumed triumph of liberalism and capitalism, it is no less consequential. The winner of this second Cold War will have the power to shape the rules of global order for decades to come.

2) Taiwan is the pivotal flashpoint in this new Cold War and maintaining the status quo is a core U.S. interest. Geographically, Taiwan anchors the first chain of islands in the Western Pacific, which limits China’s maritime access and ability to project power. Economically, Taiwan produces more than 90 percent of the world’s most advanced semiconductor chips. Politically, it represents the ideological contest between democratic self-determination and authoritarian expansionism. China sees Taiwan as part of its national territory and has vowed to incorporate the island into the mainland either peacefully or through force. If China succeeds, it would gain deep-water naval access to the Pacific, threaten U.S. access to global supply chains, and send a clear message that U.S. security guarantees may not hold. As Dmitri put it, “if the U.S. loses or abandons Taiwan, appeasement [toward China] will become the default posture of our allies.” In that respect, Dmitri sees Taiwan much like Berlin during the first Cold War: It is where the two superpowers could clash, intentionally or through miscalculation, with grave consequences for all.

3) The United States can win the competition with China if it acts wisely. China has serious long-term weaknesses. Its population is aging and shrinking, its debt is mounting, it depends on trade routes it does not fully control, and it has little global soft power. China also trails in critical technologies, particularly AI and advanced chip production. On the other hand, the United States holds critical advantages: a dynamic economy, superior military capabilities, and a network of global alliances. Dmitri argues: “The goal is to contain China in the long-run and keep it from becoming more powerful than the United States.” However, political partisanship and dysfunction, an atrophied defense industrial base, and growing hostility to allies threaten to undermine these U.S. strengths, giving China the opening it needs to pull ahead in the global competition. The greatest threat may not be Beijing’s rise, but Washington’s self-sabotage.

If you’re looking to explore more about Dmitri’s analysis of a U.S.-China second Cold War, check out his article in Foreign Affairs last year, “Taiwan Is the New Berlin.”