Proposed Judicial Reforms Hasten Democratic Erosion, Peruvian Guns Fuel Ecuador's Violence, and Arévalo's New Cabinet

Judicial reforms look to erode—not consolidate—democracy. In the decades after the wave of democratization that swept across Latin America, many nations reformed their judicial systems for the better, aspiring, if not always succeeding, in making them more transparent, accountable, and fair. Brazil’s 1988 constitution introduced a merit-based selection process for judges, broadening independence and access to the third branch of government in the face of executive authoritarianism. Mexico’s 2008 constitutional reform significantly improved some measures of justice too, shortening trials, reducing coercion, and requiring greater transparency in proceedings.

More recent reforms look to roll back courts’ independence once again. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and his party have pushed court-packing reforms, slashed judiciary budgets, dissolved nearly all of the judiciary’s trusts, politicized judicial appointments, and floated making all federal judgeships popularly elected. Peru’s congress has been mulling changes that would amount to a far-reaching overhaul of Peru’s justice system. Though specific provisions have yet to be announced, the same parties seek to oust the country’s National Justice Board, which administers the judiciary. Lawmakers could propose the reform in early March and if it passes, it too could clip the judiciary’s wings.

Peruvian guns fuel Ecuador’s violence. Ecuadorian and Peruvian journalists uncovered that over half of the explosives seized by Ecuadorian authorities from the country’s gangs last year came from the Peruvian armed forces’ munitions factory (Peru’s Minister of Defense denied the allegations). Chilean arms traffickers have also chosen Peru as a gun-smuggling route, exploiting the country’s porous borders to traffic U.S.- and European-made weapons into Ecuador. Unfortunately, Peru’s government has not taken effective steps to curb the flow. Last year, the country’s congress passed a law relaxing controls on firearms, even as authorities made ever-larger busts of illegally-trafficked guns along the border with Ecuador. Peruvian President Dina Boluarte recently declared a sixty-day state of emergency in departments bordering Ecuador and pledged to step up intelligence sharing with Ecuador. But Peruvian authorities can and should do more to close illegal border crossings and investigate journalists’ allegations that the armed forces’ munitions are entering Ecuador. 

Arévalo delivers a technocratic, centrist cabinet. Arevalo’s cabinet combines members of his Movimiento Semilla party, such as Finance Minister Jonathan Menkos and Education Secretary Anabella Giracca, and career technocrats, namely Interior Minister Francisco Jiménez and Minister of Foreign Affairs Carlos Martínez. He also selected a communications, infrastructure, and housing minister, Jazmín de la Vega de Furlán, with ties to Guatemala’s business elite, as well as Labor Minister Miriam Roquel, a Maya K’iche’ human rights defender. Only one cabinet selection, Anayté Guardado, nominated as minister of energy and mines, declined, due to strong public opposition. 

The composition of Arévalo’s cabinet reflects his center-left political leanings, his commitment to gender equality (it is the first cabinet in Guatemala’s history to achieve gender parity) as well as his desire to forge a big tent coalition behind his reformist agenda, including a section of Guatemala’s business elite which quietly defended his right to take office. Keeping the coalition together as Arévalo implements his agenda will be challenging. Congress is considering a law to break up monopolies that powerful private sector figures have long opposed. Indigenous communities that demonstrated in defense of the election results demanded greater representation than they achieved. The two groups united to defend democracy, but their many differences on issues could pull them apart, complicating Arévalo’s ability to govern.