What May Cause China to Blink?

Several news stories today report that China is signaling openness to trade talks. This fits the usual pattern of Chinese diplomacy. As I wrote in my recent Foreign Affairs piece: “Beijing has shown a strong capacity for retaliation and a tactical openness to negotiation, but not a willingness to kowtow.” The current trade disruption most closely resembles late 2022, when widespread zero-COVID lockdowns led the Chinese people to doubt whether their basic freedom of movement would ever be restored. At that time, Xi Jinping executed an abrupt policy reversal once economic stress translated to spontaneous protests.

But today’s domestic narrative is different: Xi isn’t blamed for the trade war—and that’s critical to the Party’s reaction function. China can’t hold out forever, but it isn’t desperate either. A tactical climbdown sooner rather than later would serve both sides, but meaningful negotiations are likely a different story.

As my FA article explains: “The CCP holds a monopoly on power in China’s political system, and Xi maintains a near monopoly within the party itself. This concentration of authority allows the Chinese leader to make sweeping policy decisions unchallenged—and to reverse course just as swiftly. And as a result of the party’s control over information, particularly regarding foreign affairs, any encounter with the Trump administration can be framed domestically as Xi standing firm against foreign bullying.”