A New Series of CFR Playbooks Outlines How U.S. Policymakers Can Navigate Foreign Policy Crisis Scenarios

In a new collection of reports from the Wachenheim Center for Peace and Security at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), authors Peter J. Quaranto, Cecily Brewer, F. David Diaz, and Jason Ladnier provide expert recommendations for how to respond to common contingency types. The Crisis Response Playbooks cover how to navigate insurgencies, coups, gray zone attacks against U.S. allies, and supply chain chokepoint disruptions. 

In their introductory article, “American Crisis Management for a New Era,” Paul B. Stares and Ladnier underscore that these playbooks are “designed to free up valuable policy attention for the parts of a crisis that genuinely require new thinking, rather than the parts where the United States has already learned lessons the hard way. The intended user is anyone in the broader foreign policy community whose work touches on the prevention and management of violent conflict.” 

Each playbook outlines protocols for assessing developing threats to U.S. interests, selecting from a set of pre-established policy options, and mobilizing the right authorities, personnel, and tools to carry them out. Grounded in best practices and knowledge drawn from past crises, Stares and Ladnier write that the guides’ value “will only grow as the world becomes more turbulent.” 

Alongside the playbooks, the experts have also developed a compressed Crisis Management Checklist for U.S. officials to navigate the first hours and days of any foreign policy crisis.  

“These playbooks are not scripts. They will not replace country expertise, intelligence collection, or political judgment,” said Stares, General John W. Vessey senior fellow for conflict prevention and director of the Wachenheim Center for Peace and Security. “But they can ensure U.S. policymakers facing the next crisis will not have to start from a blank page.” 

Insurgency-Related Conflicts 
“In the years ahead, insurgent groups could pose even greater security threats by exploiting emerging technologies and disrupting global cyber networks and economic supply chains,” states Peter J. Quaranto, visiting professor of the practice and distinguished global policy fellow at the University of Notre Dame’s Keough School of Global Affairs. 

“To respond effectively to such conflicts,” Quaranto continues, “policy planners should consider the U.S. government’s strategic interests and orientation regarding the insurgency, along with related assumptions and benchmarks.” 

Coups and Other Irregular Leadership Changes 
“With the emergence of alternative security and economic partners for many countries, such as China and Russia, the U.S. playbook from past decades no longer produces the same results, making it essential to reexamine U.S. strategic aims, approaches, and tools,” writes Cecily Brewer, director of research and operations for CFR’s Future of American Strategy Initiative. 

According to Brewer, U.S. policymakers should “act early to prevent coups when possible; set prioritized and realistic objectives when they do occur; harness U.S. and partner leverage . . . to achieve those objectives; manage unavoidable trade-offs; and focus on long-term outcomes while preserving flexibility to adapt as circumstances change.” 

Gray Zone Attacks Against U.S. Allies and Partners 
“Unlike conventional military aggression, gray zone campaigns unfold without formal declarations, progress gradually, mimic crime or accident, and can be designed to appear coincidental or random,” stresses F. David Diaz, principal of geopolitical risk management and executive advisory at Signal Hill Advisers. “By the time a coordinated campaign is recognized for what it is, the attacker has already achieved significant strategic advantage.” 

“Although gray zone attacks produce physical effects that could provoke a military response, the most effective response could also be diplomatic, informational, or economic in nature,” Diaz notes. The options he provides incorporate all those tools, and the lessons he highlights “are designed to keep planners from defaulting to a false binary of military action or inaction.” 

Conflict-Driven Chokepoint Disruptions 
As conflict-driven disruptions of critical supply chain chokepoints become more popular, “it will only become easier to interfere with or even close off chokepoints as cheap drones, unmanned surface vessels, and anti-ship missiles proliferate among state and nonstate actors alike,” states Jason Ladnier, cofounder of Farafield Strategies LLC and strategy and business planning consultant at Spirit of America. 

“In such crises, beyond immediate decisions to secure the safety of U.S. citizens, vessels, and military assets, policymakers need to consider what interests are at stake and orient the U.S. response accordingly,” Ladnier writes. 

To learn more about the playbooks, visit www.cfr.org/articles/american-crisis-management-for-a-new-era. 

For more information, please email [email protected].