Do Not Run, al-Sisi…Do Not Run

Gamal Mubarak or Omar Suleiman?  Omar Suleiman or Gamal Mubarak?  Not too long ago this was what many Egyptians and virtually any westerner  who had an interest in Egypt  were asking.   Everyone had an answer based on the Cairo rumor mill, multiple dodgy sources like a neighbor who revealed Hosni Mubarak’s inner most thoughts based on what he had heard from his wife’s uncle who was friends with a journalist with close ties to the presidency, and sheer creativity.  We are back at it again, but this time is obviously not about Omar Pasha who died suddenly in the summer of 2012 nor Gamal who continues to languish in Tora prison, waiting for appeals to be heard in various corruption cases.  No, now everyone is asking “Will he or won’t he?”  The “he” is, of course, Major-General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, the man behind the July 3 coup d’état and apparently the object of much adoration among various segments of the Egyptian population and the question is whether he will run for president.  It seems that every day there is some new indication—imagined or otherwise—that the general will run.

There is a case to be made for al-Sisi’s candidacy—he has captured the imaginations of many Egyptians, he represents the (momentary) consensus, he looks the part, and a distressingly large numbers of Egyptians seem to want a “firm hand” (also known as a “strong man,” as in, not necessarily democratic) guiding their country.  The calls from Egyptian notables such as Alaa al Aswany, Naguib Sawiris, and a variety of columnists, combined with huge al-Sisi posters that now adorn public spaces, the al-Sisi cupcakes, the al-Sisi sandwiches, and the al-Sisi pajamas, the man may begin to think that he has no choice but to step forward, albeit reluctantly, for “the good of Egypt.” These are superficial reasons for the Defense Minister and Deputy Prime Minister to enter the political arena, of course.

I have no idea what is in al-Sisi’s head.  No one has told me.  I am not good at reading body language.  I do not know him.  I do not know what to believe when people tell me that he will definitely run and others tell me that he will not. I do know this, however, if al-Sisi decides to run and wins it would be bad for Egypt, bad for the Egyptian armed forces, and bad for al-Sisi himself.

It is important to note that this is an al-Sisi-specific scenario.  It seems unlikely that Egyptians would demand that other less charismatic figures—Adly Mansour, if the “interim” label was removed from his current title or Amr Moussa, for example—stay on.  Al-Sisi is  bigger than them, though.  There is too much vested in him and his presidency before it even happens.  For his supporters, he is the man on  horseback who is going to make sure that everyone has cooking gas, the lights stay on, and the tourists come back. In ways, al-Sisi also represents for the millions who benefited from the system under Hosni Mubarak, a return to the natural order of things.

For the good of Egypt, the armed forces, and himself, Major-General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi should not run for president.