Blogs

Follow the Money

Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in.

Latest Post

Why Did China’s Current Account Surplus Surge in the Third Quarter?

An old school, “make blogging great again” style post. The rise in the current account surplus might be linked to the “carry” unwind in the third quarter.

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Economics
Sri Lanka’s Bond Deal Should Not Set a Precedent
Rather than reducing the risk of future debt trouble, Sri Lanka’s macro-linked bonds set up the risk that Sri Lanka will fall back into debt trouble in 2029 or 2030.
Climate Change
Mobilizing Clean Energy Financing through the Multilateral Development Banks
A new paper published by the MIT Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research (CEEPR) puts forward an ambitious agenda for innovation in clean energy finance.
Russia
Estimating Future Interest Income From Russia’s Frozen Reserves
Outright seizure of the Russian Central Bank’s hundreds of billions in frozen assets is currently off the table, but it is still possible to obtain large sums for Ukraine from the interest income on these assets.
  • China
    Power and Financial Interdependence
    My new paper for the Geoeconomics and Geofinance Initiative of the Institute Français des Relations Internationals’ (IFRI) explores the history of the Sino-American financial relationship.
  • China
    China’s New Currency Peg
    The peg that shall not be named, and all the trouble that creates.
  • Japan
    The Japanese Bid for Foreign Bonds After the End of Yield Curve Control
    The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is widely expected to end yield curve control. But Japanese yields will remain low, and foreign bonds will remain attractive to those Japanese investors who don’t have to hedge.
  • China
    China’s Record Manufacturing Surplus
    The U.S. likes talking about the dominance of the dollar. But don’t short-change China’s current dominance of manufacturing trade. Trade imbalances need to be taken seriously again.
  • Economics
    The IMF Needs to Focus on Setting Good Targets for External Debt Sustainability
    The IMF has two frameworks for assessing debt sustainability. The market access country framework is more technically advanced, but it isn't delivering reasonable targets for debt restructuring cases. Sri Lanka is a case in point.
  • China
    China’s New Currency Playbook
    China’s pivot to a new strategy of indirect intervention through its large state banks requires new approaches to policing currency policies by both the U.S. Treasury and IMF.
  • Russia
    Mobilizing Russia’s Immobilized Reserves
    A quick note on the debate over the use of Russia’s frozen reserves.