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Asia Unbound

CFR fellows and other experts assess the latest issues emerging in Asia today.

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Helicopters fly past plumes of smoke rising from explosions in Caracas, Venezuela, January 3, 2026.
Helicopters fly past plumes of smoke rising from explosions in Caracas, Venezuela, January 3, 2026. Third Party/REUTERS

Trump’s Strikes on Venezuela Will Not Embolden China to Invade Taiwan

There are reasons to criticize President Trump’s decision to strike Venezuela; however, giving China a green light to attack Taiwan is not one of them.

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Myanmar
Myanmar’s Junta Forces Are Gaining Back Ground, Presaging a Long-Term Quagmire
In recent months, Myanmar’s military junta has regained ground lost to organized resistance groups. Ahead of the regime’s plans to hold national elections, continual fighting has pushed the state into a geopolitical quagmire. 
Thailand
Thailand Has Become Southeast Asia’s Hub of Transnational Repression
In recent years, Thailand has facilitated transnational repression by outright authoritarian neighbors and nearby democracies alike, making it increasingly difficult for Southeast Asian dissidents to find safety. 
Japan
#Change, LDP! But Will It?
Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru’s announcement that he would step down has prompted yet another race within the LDP for a new president.
  • China
    How America Can Win in Space to Protect Taiwan and Beyond
    To protect its strategic interests in Taiwan in the event of a conflict with China, the United States should consider investing more time, energy, and resources towards an often-overlooked arena of defense competition: space superiority.
  • Thailand
    Thai Politics Poised for a Meltdown – or a Massive Breakthrough
    Thailand’s parliament has selected Anutin Charnvirakul, former leader of the conservative Bhumjaithai party, as the country’s new prime minister—but he may not be able to maintain his position for long.
  • China
    China is Becoming a Military Power in Southeast Asia in More Ways than People Think
    Bolstered by joint military exercises and deepening ties between defense leaders, China’s growing share of arms exports to Southeast Asia and South Asia has contributed significantly to its growing influence in the two regions. 
  • Australia
    The White House’s Trade Policy Alienates Australia and New Zealand
    Beyond mere economics, U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policy is proving to have troubling effects on the United States’ strategic, defense, and geopolitical relationships with Australia and New Zealand.
  • Indonesia
    As Indonesia’s Protests Roil On, Prabowo’s Crackdown Could Escalate Violence
    Motivated by growing economic inequality and government corruption, Indonesians have been protesting across the country for weeks. Under the administration of President Prabowo Subianto, harsh crackdowns could lead to more violent unrest.
  • Thailand
    Coup Coming? With Paetongtarn Shinawatra Removed From Office, Thailand Is in Chaos
    The sudden ouster of the prime minister leaves few positive leadership options, and could push the armed forces toward intervention.
  • Thailand
    Why Thaksin Was Acquitted of Lese Majeste
    In a decision that has bucked the trend of surefire convictions linked to the country's harsh lese majeste laws, a criminal court acquitted former Thai prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra of royal insult charges.