The AI Bubble + The Productivity Paradox + India’s AI Summit
Is there an AI bubble, or just an OpenAI bubble? Markets remain focused on whether valuations can be justified by sufficiently fast revenue growth, while the real economy braces for AI’s impact on productivity, jobs, and other disruptions. With global leaders and tech CEOs convening in India to debate AI governance, the stakes are rising fast. Credit markets, hiring data, and business sentiment could signal whether this year will bring a continued jobless expansion or something more concerning.
Published
Hosts
- Sebastian MallabyPaul A. Volcker Senior Fellow for International Economics
- Rebecca PattersonSenior Fellow
Producer
- Molly McAnanyProducer, Podcasts
Supervising Producer
- Gabrielle SierraDirector, Podcasting
Supervising Producer
- Jeremy SherlickDirector of Video
Audio Producer
- Markus ZakariaAudio Producer & Sound Designer
Researcher
- Liza JacobResearch Associate, Finance, Business, and Technology
Transcript
The Hook: AI inspires both promise and fear. It brings the promise of transformational technology that could boost productivity, alongside fears of industry disruption and fast-moving job losses.
The Spillovers: These debates are already moving markets. The risk is not a broad AI bubble, but an OpenAI bubble specifically, raising the question of whether U.S. capital markets can keep financing heavy investment before revenues fully materialize. Even if valuations hold, the real economic effects on jobs, productivity, and global competitiveness are just beginning to unfold, with young workers and slower-moving economies the most exposed. The window for smart AI governance is narrowing, and policy decisions made now could either stabilize expectations or amplify future market shocks.
The Spillover is a production of the Council on Foreign Relations. The opinions expressed on the show are solely those of the hosts and guests, not of the Council, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
Mentioned on the Episode:
Sebastian Mallaby and Sebastian Elbaum, “The AI Trilemma,” Foreign Affairs
Sebastian Mallaby, The Infinity Machine: Demis Hassabis, DeepMind, and the Quest for Superintelligence
Alap Shah, “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” Citrini Research
Matt Shumer, “Something Big Is Happening in AI — and Most People Will Be Blindsided,” Forbes
Martha Gimbel, “An AI Productivity Boom? Don’t Count Your (Productivity Data) Chickens,” Yale Budget Lab
