Center for Preventive Action

The world continues to grow more violent and disorderly. In this report, surveyed experts rate global conflicts by their likelihood and potential harm to U.S. interests and, for the first time, identify opportunities for preventive action.

Assumptions about how a potential conflict between the United States and China over Taiwan would unfold should urgently be revisited. Such a war, far from being insulated, would likely draw in additional powers, expand geographically, and escalate vertically.

Executive Summary The United States faces growing dangers of nuclear escalation, a new arms race, and proliferation. These risks stem, in part, from its strategy of using its nuclear forces to target opponents’ nuclear forces. Such “counterforce” targeting is justified primarily as a way to limit the damage the United States would suffer in a […]

Executive Summary The 2025 Preventive Priorities Survey The second Donald Trump administration assumes office at a moment of great peril for the United States. The level of armed conflict around the world has steadily grown in recent years, which in turn has increased the risk of costly U.S. military intervention. This is particularly the case […]

For the first time in its sixteen-year history, the Council on Foreign Relations’ (CFR) annual Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) found that the leading concern for foreign policy experts is not a foreign threat to U.S. interests, but the possibility of domestic terrorism and acts of political violence in the United States, particularly around the 2024 presidential […]

The world took a dangerous turn in 2022. High-intensity conflict broke out in Europe—something widely considered unimaginable just a few years ago—while tensions continue to escalate between the United States and China over Taiwan. Meanwhile, the potential for conflict on the Korean peninsula and between Iran and Israel remains high. Interstate warfare, and the potential […]

The Joe Biden administration is confronting several acute humanitarian crises this year amid growing tensions with China, Iran, and Russia, according to the Council on Foreign Relations’ (CFR) fourteenth annual Preventive Priorities Survey.  The survey finds an alarming trend: severe food shortages, diminished foreign aid, political instability, and deteriorating economic conditions are accelerating humanitarian and refugee crises around the world.   Conducted by CFR’s Center for Preventive Action (CPA) in November, the survey asks […]

A crisis stemming from North Korea’s continued development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile testing is the top-ranked conflict concern for 2021, according to the Council on Foreign Relations’ (CFR) thirteenth annual Preventive Priorities Survey. The survey identifies potential violent overseas conflicts where U.S. troops might be deployed in the year ahead. Conducted by CFR’s Center for […]

Each year since 2008, the Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Preventive Action (CPA) asks foreign policy experts to rank thirty ongoing or potential conflicts based on how likely they are to occur or escalate in the next year, and their possible impact on U.S. interests. This year, “perhaps as an indication of rising concern […]

Each year since 2008, the Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Preventive Action (CPA) has asked foreign policy experts to rank thirty ongoing or potential conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring or escalating in the next year and their potential impact on U.S. national interests. “The annual Preventive Priorities Survey is unique in providing […]

The Council on Foreign Relations’ tenth annual Preventive Priorities Survey identified eight top conflict prevention priorities for the United States in the year ahead, highlighting armed confrontations between the United States and North Korea and Iran as serious international concerns. The Global Conflict Tracker: Learn About the World’s Top Hotspots The survey, conducted by CFR’s Center […]

A serious military confrontation between Russia and a North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member state or a severe crisis in North Korea are among top international concerns for 2017 cited by a new survey of experts. The Council on Foreign Relations’ (CFR) ninth annual Preventive Priorities Survey identified seven top potential flashpoints for the United States in […]