What Do Americans Want from U.S. Foreign Policy? A Dispatch From Maricopa County, AZ

This article was originally published on the Future of American Strategy Substack.

Since the Future of American Strategy Initiative launched in late May, we’ve shared nearly thirty essays about where U.S. foreign policy should go from here, on topics ranging from artificial intelligence (AI) governance and climate change to China policy and the future of the transatlantic alliance. In the coming months, you can expect more big ideas on how the United States should confront the most consequential strategic challenges coming our way over the next decade.

Alongside that work, we are focused on a complementary mission: ensuring the debate about the future of American strategy is informed by the views of Americans themselves. We believe that U.S. foreign policy will not be sustainable and effective unless it is rooted in an understanding of what the American people want from their country’s global role.

To help answer that question, last year, we started traveling around the United States to engage Americans whose views are rarely reflected in foreign policy conversations. The initial findings from that work resulted in this article on Americans’ views of global leadership and this one predicting the AI backlash we are now seeing unfold.

As we continue our engagement across America, we will share our findings with you here. Below is the first dispatch, from my trip last week to Maricopa County in Arizona.   

Maricopa County, AZ: A Fast-Growing and Diverse County in the Sun Belt

Maricopa is a diverse, rapidly growing, and politically mixed county, encompassing Glendale, Mesa, Phoenix, Tempe, and the surrounding areas. The county is considered a political bellwether: it went for Trump in 2024, Biden in 2020, and Trump in 2016. Economically, the county is a driver of Arizona’s growth: Maricopa County now accounts for 73.5 percent of Arizona’s GDP.

Maricopa County’s role in global tech and defense supply chains is an important element of its success story. Since 2020, the state has landed more than seventy semiconductor-related expansions worth over $314 billion—including a $265 billion first-ever US-based fabrication plant from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC), the largest greenfield foreign investment in American history. AI hyperscalers have flocked to the county, with 146 data center facilities and projects including a 2.5-million-square-foot Meta campus in Mesa. Maricopa also hosts major production sites for defense titans Honeywell, Raytheon, and Boeing—whose Mesa plant is the world’s sole Apache helicopter production line.

In Maricopa County and beyond, Arizona benefits considerably from global trade, particularly with Mexico and Canada. Overall, trade now supports one in five jobs statewide, and exports have nearly doubled over the past decade. But this global exposure also poses challenges: geopolitical and economic uncertainty due to tariffs and the Iran war is creating real and growing economic headwinds.

Despite the local economic boom, many in Maricopa County are struggling financially: 10.4 percent of residents live in poverty, slightly above the national average. Surging energy prices and loss of SNAP benefits are further straining less affluent residents, and aggressive immigration enforcement has affected many communities.

To better understand how Maricopa County residents view America’s global role and the impact of foreign policy on their daily lives, I convened more than eighty community members, including state and local officials, faith leaders, veterans, community college students, corporate executives, and academics, for informal focus groups on America’s role in the world. Here are the key takeaways:

Five takeaways from Maricopa County

1. Affordability is a foreign policy issue

Affordability was the top concern we heard in Maricopa County, with a particular focus on the cost of consumer goods and fuel. For college students, it was the price of a case of Diet Coke. For churches, it was the price of coffee and candles—or the downtick in community service because volunteers can’t afford to drive the extra mileage. For farmers, it was the cost of diesel fuel needed to power heavy machinery.

Every discussion linked cost of living with foreign policy. The Iran war is perceived as the primary culprit, and high prices seem closely tied to negative opinions of the war. As one veteran put it: “Iran has been messing with us for 47 years. Why now, when diesel is $6.35?” Tariffs were another frequently cited cost driver for many of our participants, with particular salience after recent trade disagreements with Canada. Interestingly, business leaders expressed a willingness to tolerate even a high level of tariffs and export controls if they are consistent and predictable—but complained that constantly shifting trade policy makes it harder and costlier to plan and operate.

2. Americans want global respect

Every group we convened expressed embarrassment about America’s global standing—and, in particular, the sense that the United States is now disrespected around the world. Participants were dismayed with recent treatment of America’s friends, especially Canada, Mexico, and Europe. For businesses with global operations, allies’ steps to derisk from the United States are having real costs: “In the past, having the flag of a U.S. company was an asset; now it’s a curse,” said one tech executive. Lamenting the shift away from working with allies, welcoming immigrants, and anchoring foreign policy in principles, many struggled to reconcile their ideas of what America “should be” at home and abroad, versus how our country operates now. “We have lost our sense of self” explained one participant, to wide agreement.

3. AI pessimism, but not panic

We heard anxiety about AI, but not the panic that now pervades elite conversations. Participants were more likely to cite concerns about AI’s impact on critical thinking, education, and social ties, rather than existential fears. Even so, many seemed resigned to AI’s inevitable race forward—though also baffled by the United States’ inability to regulate this disruptive technology, domestically or globally. As one participant said: “Do I toss the keys to Sam Altman or Xi Jinping? I can’t believe these are our choices.” Notably, despite the rapid growth of data centers across Maricopa County, they were largely absent from discussions.

4. Tied to Taiwan yet open-minded on China

It’s hard to think of another county in America more closely tied to Taiwan than Maricopa. Local officials closely track events in the Taiwan Strait. TSMC’s $265 billion fab has created an ecosystem of Taiwanese investment, with more anticipated. Seven direct flights travel from Phoenix to Taipei weekly, and Taiwan opened an Economic and Cultural Office in Phoenix in July. These connections—and the economic and employment opportunities they represent—came up frequently in conversation.

Yet this proximity to Taiwan did not translate into animosity toward China—to the contrary, participants expressed open-mindedness about the future of the U.S.-China relationship. We heard concerns about Beijing’s information warfare and propaganda, as well as its domestic governance model. But most did not note Beijing’s regional or global ambitions as a serious threat to the United States. Some Generation Z participants expressed envy toward China—particularly a sense that China provides better opportunities for its people—while others strongly disputed this characterization and attributed it to misinformation on social media.

5. Demand for a rationalized approach to immigration

As a border state, Arizona has strong ties with Mexico and many immigrant communities. Students, veterans, and clergy alike described recent immigration crackdown as inhumane, harmful, and intimately felt in their communities. Immigration restrictions have also taken a toll on businesses. With rapidly growing tech and defense industries, academic institutions and business executives expressed much greater concern about the shortage of qualified individuals to fill key jobs than about foreign workers taking jobs from Americans. They lamented recent restrictions limiting international student visas and foreign worker visas as a major risk to their ability to expand operations.

Next Stop: Wisconsin

Taken together, our findings suggest that enthusiasm for American global leadership is weaker today than it was when we visited Phoenix last fall. There is still space for a vision of U.S. foreign policy that right-sizes our global role and earns back the world’s respect. But it will only sustain support if Americans feel confident that their kitchen-table concerns are being prioritized and addressed at the same time.

We will continue to travel around the country, asking Americans what they want to see from the United States’ global role. Up next are Kenosha and Milwaukee Counties in Wisconsin. Stay tuned.

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