from Center for Preventive Action

Renewed Conflict in Sudan

Contingency Planning Memorandum No. 7

March 18, 2010

Contingency Planning Memorandum
Contingency Planning Memoranda identify plausible scenarios that could have serious consequences for U.S. interests and propose measures to both prevent and mitigate them.

More on:

Sudan

Conflict Prevention

Wars and Conflict

Overview

Sudan faces the prospect of renewed violence between north and south over the next twelve to eighteen months. Overwhelmingly in favor of independence, the south will either secede peacefully through a credible referendum process as agreed to in the 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement or pursue this by force if the agreement should collapse. This Center for Preventive Action Contingency Planning Memorandum by Katherine Almquist presents the likely triggers of renewed civil war and discusses the U.S. policy options for preventing it from happening and mitigating its consequences in the event that it does. Almquist concludes that U.S.-led international support for self-determination should be unambiguously affirmed without prejudice toward unity, and that it must be backed by preparations to recognize and assist an independent southern Sudan.

More on:

Sudan

Conflict Prevention

Wars and Conflict

Top Stories on CFR

Middle East and North Africa

The kafala system regulates the lives of tens of millions of migrant laborers in the Middle East, but growing outrage over human rights abuses, racism, and gender discrimination has fueled calls for reform.

Coronavirus

COVID-19 cases are surging across the United States, forcing Americans to weigh the risks of gathering for the Thanksgiving holiday. How have other countries handled holidays amid the pandemic?

Europe and Eurasia

Azerbaijan’s success in the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh means Putin’s peace deal is likely to last. It also rules out further diplomacy.