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November 20, 2004

United States
Large Players in Large Markets

One of the world’s ironies is that even as John Snow putters on about how currency values should be set by market forces, the market -- or at least the private market -- is now playing a comparativel…

December 2, 2004

Financial Markets
Renminbi tests multi-year lows against euro, pound, yen …

The renminbi seems to have reached a new low against the euro today, breaking through the low set yesterday before a very brief little rally. Every time the renminbi-dollar tumbles, I am reminded wh…

November 15, 2004

Where are George Soros and the other macro hedge funds?

With apologies to Philip Coggan, I plagarized his FT headline from a few days ago -- he asked the same question as Brad DeLong, namely, why aren’t big bets from big macro hedge funds driving the doll…

December 26, 2004

Emerging Markets
Argentina in the boxing day New York Times

The IMF’s typical diagnosis of an emerging economies problem is "its mostly fiscal", or so the wonky saying goes. Larry Rohter of the New York Times makes the argument that Argentina’s post 2001 suc…

January 2, 2005

United States
Bretton Woods Two Lives

The Fed has started to tighten, Greenspan said anyone who has not hedged their interest rate risk desires to lose money. Yet higher short-term rates have not led to higher long-term rates. In the j…

January 15, 2005

Economics
Latest speech of FRBNY President Tim Geithner

I pay a certain amount of attention to what New York Federal Reserve President Tim Geithner has to say just because he was my boss at the Treasury and the IMF (noted in the spirit of full blog disclo…

January 9, 2005

Financial Markets
The price of a European vacation

As readers of this blog no doubt know, the dollar rallied v. the euro last week. Not that most of America noticed. In much of America’s heartland, the dollar’s value does not make the financial new…

December 9, 2004

Retired Wall Street Titans (and the renminbi-dollar)

Henry Kaufman’s name sits on the building where I work. If nothing else, that means you tend to take notice of his opinion.He nicely summarizes why many believe the dollar won’t fall much further, o…

February 17, 2005

The Achilles Heel of Cowboyeconomics

The Wall Street Journal says everyone in the world would benefit from a dose of Cowboyeconomics. You know, exporting tons of debt, to support consumption growth well in excess of income growth ... …

January 10, 2005

United States
Apparently, like budget deficits, trade deficits do not matter anymore

Kevin Drum brought the latest National Review "trade deficits do not matter" article to my attention today. I learned a few things, namely that Steven Roach is part of a media misinformation campaig…