Sub-Saharan Africa

Michelle Gavin, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, along with Joshua Meservey, testified on Tuesday, May 13, 2025 to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. The focus of the hearing was “East Africa & The Horn: At A Turning Point or Breaking Point?” Ambassador Gavin provided an assessment of the current political, humanitarian, and security situations in the region, including the war in Sudan, rising tensions in Ethiopia and South Sudan, and persistent governance challenges in Somalia. Several international actors that are involved in the region are investing in influence and, in some cases, engaging in proxy conflicts. The U.S.’s reputation and shift in elite and public sentiment towards institutions like the BRICS, the importance of the Red Sea for global commerce, and the activity of international terrorist organizations were also noted.   At the center of the testimony was identifying U.S. interests in the region and a strategy through which to pursue them. U.S. interests lie in stable governance and capable governments that can be partners in peace; growing economies that can be trading partners, investment destinations, collaborators in new enterprises, and give young people opportunity for dignified work rather than pushing them into mass migration; and a region not beholden to U.S. adversaries or mortgaged to deep-pocketed external actors whose interests do not always align with U.S. interests. In pursuit of this vision of the region, the U.S. should focus on peacemaking and conflict prevention, avoid overreliance on personal relationships with any specific leaders, and pursue a holistic Red Sea regional strategy. Ambassador Gavin answered questions from the Committee on topics including the impact of recent cuts to humanitarian and development programming, engagement by China with regional countries including Tanzania and Kenya, and the war in Sudan. Michelle Gavin is the Ralph Bunche senior fellow for Africa policy studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.