April 7, 2015
Territorial disputes in the South China Sea continue to be a source of tension and potential conflict between China and other countries in the region. Though the United States takes no position on so…
March 5, 2015
Political instability and potential violence could threaten Zimbabwe in the coming twelve to eighteen months. Zimbabwe's ninety-one-year-old president, Robert Mugabe, has no clear suc…
January 9, 2013
Kenya is at risk of repeating the violence that marred its 2007 presidential election, during which 1,133 died and nearly 600,000 were displaced from their homes. Political order in K…
September 6, 2012
In March 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Venezuela. Read the update.
In the coming months, Venezuela could experience significant po…
April 11, 2012
In April 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in the South China Sea. Read the update.
The risk of conflict in the South China Sea is signif…
September 21, 2010
In February 2015, the author wrote an update to this memo to reflect recent developments in Nigeria. Read the update.
Elections in Nigeria scheduled for January 2011 may well be the fi…