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February 15, 2024

Russia
Leadership Change in Russia

Vladimir Putin’s grip on power in Russia does not appear as ironclad as it once did. Liana Fix and Maria Snegovaya recommend that the United States prepare for potential leadership change in Moscow a…

Vladimir Putin walks with Russian generals in 2021.
Contingency Planning Memorandum by Liana Fix and Maria Snegovaya Center for Preventive Action

September 11, 2017

Israel
Israel and Hezbollah: Deterrence and the Threat of Miscalculation

Neither Israel nor Hezbollah may want to return to war, but the risk of conflict is real—especially in Syria. The Trump administration can take action to prevent unintended escalation.

Hezbollah fighters in Syria.
Contingency Planning Memorandum by Daniel C. Kurtzer Center for Preventive Action

June 4, 2020

North Korea
Renewed Crisis on the Korean Peninsula

A renewed crisis on the Korean Peninsula could arise in the next twelve months. The United States should revamp UN sanctions and revitalize multilateral diplomacy in opposition to North Korea's nucle…

Kim Jong-un walks with men in military uniforms in front of military planes.
Contingency Planning Memorandum by Scott A. Snyder Center for Preventive Action

November 8, 2017

Europe
The Unraveling of the Balkans Peace Agreements

Tensions are rising in the Balkans and the risk of renewed violence is growing, but the United States can help preserve peace and stability in the region.

Demonstrators storm into Macedonia's parliament in Skopje on April 27, 2017.
Contingency Planning Memorandum by Daniel P. Serwer Center for Preventive Action

November 9, 2010

Conflict Prevention
Military Escalation in Korea

Overview Further provocations by North Korea as well as other dangerous military interactions on or around the Korean Peninsula remain a serious risk and carry the danger of unintended escalation…

Contingency Planning Memorandum by Paul B. Stares Center for Preventive Action