European Pressure on Israel

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Top of the Agenda

The United Kingdom (UK) froze trade talks with Israel and the European Union (EU) said it would review its relationship with the country due to concerns over its conduct in Gaza. While Israel announced Sunday that it would allow a “basic” amount of food into the territory and reported sending ninety-three trucks across the border yesterday, the United Nations said yesterday that Israel had not yet allowed any food to be distributed. An Israeli foreign ministry official said that “external pressures will not divert Israel from its path.” The United Arab Emirates announced last night that Israel had agreed to allow aid that it donated into Gaza but did not specify a timeline.

The latest from Israel’s western allies.

• EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said the aid that had crossed the Gaza border was “welcomed” but just “a drop in the ocean.” 
• UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said yesterday that he as well as the leaders of Canada and France were “horrified” by Israel’s military escalation in Gaza; the UK also announced sanctions on West Bank settlers.
• Unnamed U.S. officials told Axios that U.S. President Donald Trump is “frustrated” about events in Gaza and that Vice President JD Vance skipped a potential trip to Israel because he did not want to appear to be supporting Israel’s offensive. Vance publicly cited logistical issues.

The state of broader diplomacy.

• Israel called back its senior envoys from ceasefire talks in Doha yesterday. Qatari officials, who are mediating, said a gap remained between the two sides.
• Spain is hosting an EU-Arab League Summit on Sunday regarding the war.
• CNN reported yesterday, citing unnamed U.S. officials, that Israel is considering bombing Iran’s nuclear facilities while Washington tries to negotiate a nuclear deal with Tehran—another point of tension between Israel and the United States.

“[Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu increasingly believes that ordering military action pays off. Projecting strength, after all, weakened Iran and hobbled its Lebanese proxy militia, Hezbollah… It remains somewhat unclear, however, whether Netanyahu is prepared to implement his political partners’ biggest dreams. He has to consider Trump’s position, changeable as it is, and whether Israel’s military is capable of embarking on a costly, long-term operation in Gaza.”

—Haaretz’s Amos Harel, Foreign Affairs

Across the Globe

U.S. deportations and detentions. A federal judge yesterday ordered the U.S. government to maintain custody of migrants it had reportedly flown to South Sudan, adding that they appeared to have been expelled in violation of a court order. The administration did not immediately comment. Separately, Senator Gary Peters (D-MI) said in a hearing yesterday that it cost $100,000 per day to detain each migrant at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, who was being questioned, said she did not know how much it cost.

Trump’s missile defense ambitions. Trump plans to build an estimated $175 billion missile defense system over the United States by the end of his term, he said yesterday. It would include satellites that can shoot weapons. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the cost of space-based interceptors in such a system could be between $161 billion and $542 billion over twenty years.

EU lifts Syria sanctions. The bloc will lift economic sanctions on Syria in an effort to help reconstruction efforts, Kallas said yesterday. Germany’s foreign minister said that Brussels seeks a fresh start with Syria but expects “an inclusive policy within the country.” The move follows Trump’s announcement last week of U.S. sanctions removal for Syria.

Africa’s space agency. The new space agency will focus on climate monitoring and hopes to grow successful projects on the continent, such as early warning weather systems for fishermen, a director at the agency told Bloomberg. The agency, which the African Union (AU) launched last month, is headquartered in Cairo and aims to improve information sharing both within and beyond the continent.

Chinese FDI in Europe. China’s foreign direct investment (FDI) in Europe grew last year for the first time in seven years, according to the Mercator Institute for China Studies and the Rhodium Group. Electric vehicle and battery projects in Hungary drove the increase. Still, China’s total FDI in the region of some $11 billion was only a fifth of its peak in 2016.

Pakistani military promotion. Pakistan’s prime minister promoted top army chief General Asim Munir to the rank of field marshal, citing his role in the recent military confrontation with India. It makes Munir only the second person in Pakistani history to hold that title. The promotion does not significantly change Munir’s responsibilities but signifies his prominence in a country where the military is influential.

Taiwan’s stance toward China. Taiwan seeks “peace” and “dialogue” with China but will continue to strengthen its military defenses, President Lai Ching-te said in a speech marking the first year of his tenure yesterday. China has declined multiple offers for talks from Lai. Its Taiwan Affairs Office yesterday said his speech was a “waste of effort and doomed to fail.”

Hungary’s ICC exit. Hungary’s legislature approved a bill yesterday to begin a one-year withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC). In April, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán announced his intent to leave the court. He has called it “political” rather than “impartial.” The ICC started noncompliance proceedings against Hungary after it declined to arrest Netanyahu during a March trip to Budapest despite an ICC warrant.

What’s Next

• Today, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa meets with Trump at the White House.

• Today, the EU and AU hold a ministerial meeting in Brussels.

• Tomorrow, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte visits Norway.