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Follow the Money

Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in.

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Farewell

I am stepping down from my position at the Council of Foreign Relations to take a new job. That, among other things, means that I will not be blogging here for the foreseeable future. Read More

United States
Weaker Dollar Means More Dollar Reserves
Large increases in dollar reserves tend to come during periods of dollar weakness, not periods of dollar strength. That is for a simple reason: many export-heavy countries still intervene heavily in the foreign currency market to try to keep their own currencies from appreciating against the dollar. Until Asia is as willing to float up as it is to float down, the dollar isn't going anywhere as a reserve currency.
Economics
Revisiting the Ides of March, Part III: Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark
This is a guest blog by Josh Younger, an interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan. Joshua Younger is employed by the Research Department of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All views expressed in this forum ar…
Economics
Revisiting the Ides of March, Part II: The Going Gets Weird
This is a guest blog by Josh Younger, an interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan. Joshua Younger is employed by the Research Department of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All views expressed in this forum ar…
  • Economics
    Revisiting the Ides of March, Part I: A Thousand Year Flood
    This is a guest blog by Josh Younger, an interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan. Joshua Younger is employed by the Research Department of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All views expressed in this forum ar…
  • China
    Slouching Toward Phase One
    On current trends, goods exports to China will struggle to reach their 2017 level—there won't be any big gains from the Phase One deal.
  • Argentina
    The State of Argentina’s Debt Restructuring…
    When a majority isn’t a majority…
  • Emerging Markets
    What Role Should the IMF Play in Responding to COVID-19?
    Right now the bulk of the IMF's lending capacity likely won't be used in the face of the economic, financial, and public health shock from COVID-19. Mobilizing the IMF's lending capacity likely will require a new facility. The Short-term Liquidity Line created this spring isn't actually well suited for the moment.
  • United States
    Did the Dollar's Position as the Leading Reserve Currency Help Hold Treasury Yields Down This Spring?
    Foreign Treasury sales, including large sales from reserve managers, made the Fed's job harder, not easier, in March.
  • United States
    The Irish Shock to U.S. Manufacturing?
     Over the last fifteen years, U.S. production of pharmaceuticals has fallen while imports have soared. It is worth asking why.   
  • United States
    Five Points about U.S. Trade Over the Last Thirty Years
    A few things that jumped out at me about the U.S. trade data. Some no doubt are controversial.