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Brad Setser is on leave and no additional material is being posted.

Latest Post

It Is Time To Scrap the IMF's Reserve Adequacy Metric

The IMF reserve metric isn't working: it is failing to differentiate between obviously under-reserved countries like Turkey and Argentina and adequately reserved countries like China. Read More

Economics
Revisiting the Ides of March, Part III: Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark
This is a guest blog by Josh Younger, an interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan. Joshua Younger is employed by the Research Department of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All views expressed in this forum ar…
Economics
Revisiting the Ides of March, Part II: The Going Gets Weird
This is a guest blog by Josh Younger, an interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan. Joshua Younger is employed by the Research Department of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All views expressed in this forum ar…
Economics
Revisiting the Ides of March, Part I: A Thousand Year Flood
This is a guest blog by Josh Younger, an interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan. Joshua Younger is employed by the Research Department of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All views expressed in this forum ar…
  • China
    Slouching Toward Phase One
    On current trends, goods exports to China will struggle to reach their 2017 level—there won't be any big gains from the Phase One deal.
  • Argentina
    The State of Argentina’s Debt Restructuring…
    When a majority isn’t a majority…
  • Emerging Markets
    What Role Should the IMF Play in Responding to COVID-19?
    Right now the bulk of the IMF's lending capacity likely won't be used in the face of the economic, financial, and public health shock from COVID-19. Mobilizing the IMF's lending capacity likely will require a new facility. The Short-term Liquidity Line created this spring isn't actually well suited for the moment.
  • United States
    Did the Dollar's Position as the Leading Reserve Currency Help Hold Treasury Yields Down This Spring?
    Foreign Treasury sales, including large sales from reserve managers, made the Fed's job harder, not easier, in March.
  • United States
    The Irish Shock to U.S. Manufacturing?
     Over the last fifteen years, U.S. production of pharmaceuticals has fallen while imports have soared. It is worth asking why.   
  • United States
    Five Points about U.S. Trade Over the Last Thirty Years
    A few things that jumped out at me about the U.S. trade data. Some no doubt are controversial. 
  • Turkey
    Turkey Shows the Value of Balance Sheet Analysis
    Selling reserves borrowed from the banks ultimately puts the health of Turkey's banks at risk.