Follow the Money

Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in.

Latest Post

How the U.S. and EU Could Harmonize Their Approaches to Trade in EVs and Steel

Despite sharing broadly similar policy goals, the U.S. and EU are currently struggling to find common approaches to trade in green goods. New ideas are needed. Read More

China's Current Account Surplus Is Likely Much Bigger Than Reported
The IMF needs to focus on China’s external account in its surveillance. The reported current account surplus appears to be significantly too low.
International Finance
The World Needs a Second Channel for Using SDRs
The multilateral development banks need to develop a second channel for mobilizing the world’s under-utilized special drawing rights (SDRs).
The State of Sovereign Debt Restructuring After the Meetings in Marrakech
Some fundamental problems with the IMF’s Common Framework for debt restructuring have become apparent. Not the least, debt restructuring shouldn't just be an issue for low-income countries.
  • China
    Can China Reduce Its Internal Balances Without Renewed External Imbalances?
    The rest of the world has a big stake in whether China responds to the demand drag from its construction and real estate slump with looser monetary policy or with direct stimulus to households.
  • China
    China Isn't Shifting Away From the Dollar or Dollar Bonds
    China's reserves has shifted its dollar reserves from Treasuries to Agencies, and made increased use of offshore custodians. The available evidence suggests that it still holds about 50 percent of its reserves in dollar bonds.
  • China
    How to Hide Your Foreign Exchange Reserves—A User’s Guide
    A deep dive into the techniques China used to hide its foreign exchange reserves over the last twenty years 
  • Turkey
    Turkey’s Increasing Balance Sheet Risks
    Turkey is heading for a classic currency crisis.  All of its reserves and then some are borrowed.