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FeaturedJoshua Kurlantzick analyzes China's attempts to become a media, information, and influence superpower, seeking for the first time to shape the domestic politics, local media, and information environments of the United States, East Asia, parts of Europe, and the broader world.
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Latest Post
Three Steps to Strengthen the U.S. Treasury's Foreign Exchange Report
The analytics used in the U.S. Treasury's Foreign Exchange Report should be updated to better capture the significant state flows that no longer appear as part of many country's disclosed foreign exchange reserves. Read More
The Disappearing Japanese Bid for Global Bonds
The rise in Japanese holdings of foreign bonds had an enormous impact on global markets between 2011 and 2020. The markets will now have to adapt to a sustained reduction in Japanese demand.
China's Balance of Payments Data Does Not Add Up
China's current balance of payments data doesn't quite make sense. Significant and poorly explained gaps exist between the reported BoP data and the underlying source data. China's economy is so big that data gaps really matter.
The New Geopolitics of Global Finance
The global balance of payments only adds up if the G-7's geopolitical rivals are also its bankers.
It Is Time To Scrap the IMF's Reserve Adequacy Metric
The IMF reserve metric isn't working: it is failing to differentiate between obviously under-reserved countries like Turkey and Argentina and adequately reserved countries like China.
The Changing Nature of Turkey’s Balance Sheet Risks
Pay attention to banking system's foreign currency exposure to the government ...
China’s Surplus is Rising Rapidly. So is the U.S. Deficit. The IMF Cannot Turn a Blind Eye.
Do not use the IMF’s current account forecast in the Fall 2020 World Economic Outlook (WEO). It is already out of date.
Reframing the Collective Action Problem in Sovereign Bond Restructuring
A recent white paper from Lazard points out that emerging market sovereign bond holdings are often fairly concentrated among a handful of big players. The main impediment to collective action may be less that bond holders are dispersed, and more that a handful of big holders all compete against each other and the benchmark.
Record Chinese Bilateral Surpluses With the United States Are Not Mirrored in the U.S. Trade Data
Is China’s surplus with the United States back at a record level? It depends. In China’s data, China’s exports to the United States and its surplus with the United States are at all-time highs. The United States’ import data, however, shows fewer imports from China than China reports exports—which is interesting, because the norm has long been the other way around.
Chasing Shadows in China’s Balance of Payments Data
China’s second quarter balance of payments data points to a significant increase in the foreign asset accumulation of the state banking system. That at least raises the question of whether China’s authorities are resisting pressure on the yuan to appreciate.
