from Geo-Graphics

Consumer Confidence Suggests Clinton Victory in November

June 20, 2016

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Blog posts represent the views of CFR fellows and staff and not those of CFR, which takes no institutional positions.

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Going back to 1952, consumer confidence has been a fair guide to presidential election outcomes. Confidence has been 12 points higher on average in years the incumbent party has won than in years the opposition party has won.  The difference is statistically significant at the 1 percent level.  As shown in the graphic above, average confidence over 2016 to date is right at the average level for an incumbent party victory.  This is good news for Hillary Clinton—though there is still plenty of time for bad news to boost Donald Trump.

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