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Geo-Graphics

A graphical take on geoeconomics.

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The Fed Should Peg Rates to Reality, Not to Its Stale Forecasts

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U.S. Trade Deficit
Tariffs and the Trade Balance: How Trump Validated His Critics
  Before Donald Trump became president in 2017, Americans paid tariffs on just two percent of their imported goods. The average tariff rate was 1.7 percent. In 2018, however, Trump launched…
Asia
CFR Mini Mac Index Shows U.S. Dollar Falling, Other Safe Havens Soaring, Amid Pandemic
    The “law of one price” holds that identical goods should trade for the same price in an efficient market. But how well does it actually hold internationally? The Economist magazine’s Bi…
  • United States
    Biden v. Trump on Growth: What the Market Thinks
    In his October debate with Joe Biden, Donald Trump predicted that the stock market would crash if his rival were elected. Instead, the S&P500 index has, since the election, soared by more than 14…
  • China
    92 Percent of Trump’s China Tariff Proceeds Has Gone to Bail Out Angry Farmers
    “China” is “paying billions and billions of dollars” on U.S. tariffs, President Trump said in his debate with Joe Biden on October 22. “And you know who got the money? Our farmers. Our great farm…
  • United States
    Why the Fed Bond Binge Will Boost Inflation
    After the 2008 financial crisis, it took five years of quantitative easing (QE) for the Fed’s balance sheet to grow $1.8 trillion. This year, once the pandemic began, it took less than five month…
  • China
    China, a Major World Bank Borrower and Competitor, Must Stop Sheltering BRI Debt from G20 Standstill
    As we explained in Foreign Affairs on April 27, China is trying quietly to exempt its massive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) infrastructure loans to poor countries from its agreement to participa…
  • United States
    Why the Fed’s Bazooka Will Not Stop a Wave of Corporate Defaults
      Acknowledging the enormous threat to jobs and incomes posed by the coronavirus epidemic, the Federal Reserve on March 23 pledged to use “its full range of authorities to provide powerful sup…
  • Asia
    CFR Mini Mac Index Suggests ‘Currency Manipulation’ Charges Trumped Up
    The “law of one price” holds that identical goods should trade for the same price in an efficient market. But how well does it actually hold internationally? The Economist magazine’s Big Mac Index us…
  • China
    As Trade War Drags On, China Revs Up Its Bad-Debt Machine
    U.S. tariffs cost China about $35 billion in export receipts for the first half of this year, and—even if so-called Phase One talks succeed—are set to continue sapping revenues well into 2020. Me…