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Geo-Graphics

A graphical take on geoeconomics.

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Why the Fed’s Bazooka Will Not Stop a Wave of Corporate Defaults

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Asia
CFR Mini Mac Index Suggests ‘Currency Manipulation’ Charges Trumped Up
The “law of one price” holds that identical goods should trade for the same price in an efficient market. But how well does it actually hold internationally? The Economist magazine’s Big Mac Index us…
China
As Trade War Drags On, China Revs Up Its Bad-Debt Machine
U.S. tariffs cost China about $35 billion in export receipts for the first half of this year, and—even if so-called Phase One talks succeed—are set to continue sapping revenues well into 2020. Me…
China
China’s “Massive” Trade Offer Leaves U.S. Farmers $7 Billion Worse Off
President Trump has been talking up the “massive” trade deal he expects to sign with President Xi in November. China, he said, will soon be “buying much more farm products than anybody thought po…
  • Economics
    Housing Market Points to Recession By Election Day
    Looking back at the years preceding the 2008 financial crisis, a critical warning sign was the surging gap between the growth in home prices and household income—as can be seen in the main graphi…
  • China
    Trump’s Trade War Puts “Belt and Road First”
    When he began slapping tariffs on Chinese exports last summer, President Trump said his actions would bring down America’s trade deficit. China, however, has retaliated by pressuring its firms to…
  • United States
    “Mini Mac” Shows China’s Currency Shifting Into Undervaluation
    The “law of one price” holds that identical goods should trade for the same price in an efficient market. But how well does it actually hold internationally? The Economist magazine’s Big Mac Index uses the price of McDonald’s Big Macs around the world, expressed in a common currency (U.S. dollars), to measure the extent to which various currencies are over- or under-valued. The Big Mac is a global product, identical across borders, which makes it an interesting one for this purpose.
  • China
    Trump’s Trade War Is Pushing China Even Deeper Into Debt
    China state television has branded the U.S.-China trade war “no big deal” for the country. The IMF disagrees, opining that it may cost China 1.6 percentage points in GDP growth this year. Who is …
  • United States
    130 Percent of Trump’s China-Tariff Revenue Is Now Going to Angry Farmers
    “I am very happy with over $100 Billion a year in Tariffs filling U.S. coffers,” tweeted President Trump this month. This money is “great for U.S., not good for China!” The President’s account…
  • United States
    Will the Fed Help Trump Fight His Trade War?
    In a tweet on May 14, President Trump called on the Fed to “match” interest-rate cuts he expects from China “in order to make up for the business they are . . . losing” from his tariffs. But the …
  • China
    Does China’s “Invisible Hand” Steer Funds to State-Owned Firms?
    “Market outcomes,” U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer told Congress in February, must “determine winners” in China. It can no longer be “state capitalism.” As a precondition for any t…